FAAB Factor - AL: Patience Pays Off

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your free-agent budget you should bid on them.

One size does not fit all, and we could never hope to encompass all league structures, so bids are based on:

• 12-team league (either AL or Mixed, we'll specify)
• 5x5 categories
• $100 FAAB budget

Starting Pitching

Matt Barnes, Red Sox - Barnes is getting what appears to be a spot start in place of the injured Steven Wright on Monday against the Indians. With Wright presumably returning soon, and Rick Porcello down the line, it's not apparent that Barnes will get more chances in the rotation after that. Barnes has had a hybrid starter/relief role in Triple-A Pawtucket this year and was used only in relief with the big club, so it's not likely that he'll go deep Monday. Moreover, he's had problems giving up the long-ball at the big-league level too, making him a bad streaming choice for Monday's start. Mixed: No; AL: $0 for thrill-seekers only.

Frankie Montas, White Sox - Montas has had a great campaign at Double-A Birmingham, posting a 2.59 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 87:38 K:BB in 97.1 innings. It's possible that he could get a September call-up, given that he's already on the 40-man roster. If Carlos Rodon's innings are limited, or if the White Sox want to see an alternative to John Danks, there's a pathway for him to get a few starts. However, they might just be inclined to limit Montas's innings - he threw only 81 innings last year. Mixed: No; AL: $0.

Josh Tomlin, Indians - Josh Tomlin is in, Cody Anderson is out as the Indians' fifth starter. Tomlin pitched reasonably well Saturday in his first start back from a shoulder injury, giving up two runs on two homers over 6.1 innings, striking out five while walking none. His strikeout upside isn't that great - he typically tops out at 89 mph, and his strikeout rate prior to 2014 hovered around five batters per nine innings. It spiked last year, but he also spent some time pitching in relief. There aren't going to be too many great options on the waiver wire this time of year, and Tomlin's next start is against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium to boot, so it's going to take a pretty high threshold for pain for you to gamble on him for this start. Mixed: $0; AL: $1.

Jered Weaver, Angels - With C.J. Wilson out for the year, both Matt Shoemaker and Weaver are locked into the Angels' rotation for the rest of the season. Weaver's start off the DL last Sunday was encouraging, as he struck out seven batters against no walks in five innings, bBut the velocity issues that plagued him earlier this season haven't improved - in fact, his average velocity on his four-seam fastball was as low as it has been all year Friday against the Royals. Maybe he'll continue to get by with deception and arm angles, but he's going to be a risk every time out. Pick your spots carefully before you opt to use Weaver. Mixed: $1; AL: $2.

Tommy Milone, Twins - Milone is off the DL and starting Sunday after a 15-day stint on the DL due to a flexor strain. He was getting cuffed around in his last three starts before the DL trip, and he's the type of low-ceiling starter that the Twins need to get away from as they evolve into a contender in the future. If he happens to pitch well against the Indians on Sunday, be careful not to buy in too much - his next two starts will be road starts against the Orioles and Rays, both teams that hit better against lefties. Mixed: $0; AL: $2.

Tyler Duffey, Twins - Duffey will stick in the Twins rotation after one-hitting the Indians on Saturday, striking out seven over six innings in the process. I'm not entirely sure what to make out of Duffey - his first start in the big leagues was a disaster, but it was on the road against the Blue Jays, so that should be taken with the appropriate grain of salt. His strikeout rate improved considerably this year in the minors after being rather pedestrian before. He was a fifth-round pick from Rice, a school well-known for having a lot of draft-worthy pitchers who burn out due to injury. There's a chance that he could get skipped next week after making a start this week as the fifth starter, and his spot in the rotation after Phil Hughes returns is hardly secure. I like him better than a few of the other spot start options this week, however - I prefer him over Tommy Milone too, even though Milone has a more permanent spot. Mixed: $2; AL: $4.

Felix Doubront, A's - Because the A's had to juggle their rotation following Sonny Gray's back injury, ultimately sending Aaron Brooks back down to Triple-A to add some bullpen depth, Doubront will get another start this week, and it's not too bad of a set-up for him, starting in Oakland against the Dodgers, who are much worse against lefties. That's about all of the faint praise I can muster for Doubront, who offers so little strikeout upside that it's not worth the gamble that he happens to get run support (against Clayton Kershaw, no less) and the win, especially when this seems like it'll be his last start. Mixed: No; AL: $0.

James Paxton, Mariners - Paxton will throw a simulated game Tuesday, which could be a prelude to a rehab assignment and a return to the rotation at some point in September. He's a forgotten man in the Mariners rotation, but given Mike Montgomery's recent poor starts, it's possible that he could take Montgomery's place, or the Mariners could go to a six-man rotation down the stretch. Mixed and AL: No for now.

Derek Holland, Rangers - It's such a cruel world that I get to write the final FAAB blurb on Holland before he gets activated from the DL this season, given how much Andrew has written about Holland in the past. He's going to throw a bullpen session Sunday as the final tune-up for his shoulder, and if all goes well, he'll pitch Wednesday, with Chi Chi Gonzalez getting sent back to the minors for the next two weeks. Holland hit 96-97 mph in his Triple-A start Friday, an encouraging sign. We've seen so little of Holland the last two seasons that it's hard to get excited about him now, but compared to the other options on the list this week, he's got the highest upside. Mixed: $5; AL: $15

Relief Pitching

Bruce Rondon, Tigers - Despite blowing the save Saturday night, Rondon will continue to get chances to close for the Tigers going forward. Manager Brad Ausmus has been somewhat circumspect about the issue, reticent to fully declare Rondon or Alex Wilson as the closer, but Saturday night he came as close to giving Rondon a vote of confidence as he's going to give. Rondon has a 5.79 ERA on the season, but he's struck out 28 batters in 18.2 innings, plus the Tigers like his recent form - in the last 30 days that ERA is 3.55, with an 18:4 K:BB over 12.2 innings. He's going to be volatile, but he also has big strikeout upside. At this point in the season, FAAB amounts are totally situational dependent - if you need a closer, spend what it takes to get him. The amounts here are suggestions, but it has to be tied to how much you have in your budget and what your competitors have. Neftali Feliz got the save Saturday in extra innings, but that was only after both Rondon and Wilson had pitched - I rate him as the third choice for the Tigers. Mixed: $10; AL: $25.

Junichi Tazawa/Jean Machi, Red Sox - Koji Uehara is out for the season with a fractured wrist, leaving the closing job wide open for the Red Sox. At first, the team indicated that they would give Machi the first shot at closing, citing that they wanted to limit Tazawa's innings the rest of the way. That still might be a goal for them, but Tazawa got the first save chance Tuesday (and blew it), with Machi pitching the eighth. The abbreviated week for the Red Sox hasn't helped, as they haven't had another save chance since then and Tazawa hasn't pitched since Tuesday. Tazawa has had a far better season than Machi (of course, Machi was dumped by the Giants, prima facie evidence that his performance hasn't been closer-worthy), but the workload concerns make his hold really fragile. There's a reasonable chance that a third contender could emerge after September roster expansion, even if he isn't readily identifiable right now. Tazawa - Mixed: $5; AL: $12; Machi - Mixed: $3; AL: $7.

Nate Jones, White Sox - Jones was thrust immediately into a high-leverage situation earlier in the week, coming on to face Mike Trout and Albert Pujols in a tight game. He was able to successfully navigate the peril, and hit 99 mph on the radar in the process. David Robertson is firmly locked in as the closer, but Jones is a sneaky candidate to register holds for the South Siders down the stretch. Mixed and AL: $0.

Kelvin Herrera, Royals - Greg Holland has had a number of shaky outings this year, including Thursday's disaster outing, and Wade Davis has been dealing with back problems lately. Davis did pitch Thursday, albeit not well. Meanwhile, Herrera has been great this season (though he too was shaky earlier this week against the Tigers), posting a 2.06 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and a 47:18 K:BB over 52.1 innings. His walk rate (3.10 BB/9) is a tick higher than what we'd like to see from a closer, but should Holland continue to struggle and Davis remains hurt, there's a chance that Herrera could get a chance or two. If you have room to speculate, you could do worse than Herrera. Mixed: $0; AL: $1.

Catcher

Steve Clevenger, Orioles - Clevenger was called up Friday due to Matt Wieters' hamstring injury. Clevenger is not really part of the Orioles' long-term picture at age 29, and might just be up for a few days until the O's believe that Wieters is healthy enough to play again. He was hitting well at Triple-A Norfolk (.305/.375/.393), but his lack of power makes his batting eye less of a threat at the big-league level. He could get a September call-up, but otherwise his playing time will be so sparse that he's just a DFS play when minimally priced. Mixed and AL: No.

First Base

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers - Cabrera returned Friday after missing six weeks due to his calf injury. It's worth noting that he refused a minor league rehab assignment and was lifted for a pinch runner late Saturday - the latter being noteworthy in that this could happen frequently down the stretch. You don't need us to tell you to pick him up if he somehow was dropped, but more to exercise a modicum of caution in using him in daily leagues or in acquiring him on the trade market. If he aggravates the injury, it's not hard to envision the Tigers shutting him down in September.

Greg Bird, Yankees - Bird got the call from the Yankees this week, replacing Garret Jones as the left-handed bench option to spell Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran when needed. Bird has legit power and a decent batting eye. He was the Arizona Fall League MVP and homered in the Rising Stars Game last year. He'll likely play 2-3 times per week, with an eye towards getting a full run next year. Mixed: $1; AL: $4.

Second Base

Micah Johnson, White Sox - Johnson could return to action from his hamstring injury in about 7-10 days, just in time to finish out the Triple-A season at Charlotte. Johnson could be a September call-up and hence a cheap speed option, but he's lost ground to Carlos Sanchez in trying to get any sort of playing time at second base. Mixed and AL: No.

Shortstop

Eduardo Nunez, Twins - Nunez has started three of the last five games at shortstop, mostly in place of Eduardo Escobar, though Escobar gave Brian Dozier a day off at second base over the weekend. Nonetheless, Nunez has played less this year than last season. That's the sort of evolution a young improving team takes - the need for the likes of someone as Nunez decreases as the young prospects take their foothold on the club. He has played only three games in the outfield this year, as opposed to 18 last year, as an example. He's been marginally better this year, perhaps because he's playing less (and not being forced into tougher spots). Mixed: No; AL: $0.

Third Base

Garin Cecchini, Red Sox - Cecchini's prospect star has dimmed after two mediocre seasons at Triple-A Pawtucket. Before getting called up Saturday, Cecchini was hitting .218/.293/.307 with just six homers in 404 plate appearances. Pablo Sandoval left with an injury Saturday, so Cecchini might be in play for the short-term, but there's no real long-term path for playing time for him. Mixed: No; AL: $0.

Outfield

Henry Urrutia, Orioles - The O's called up Urrutia on Saturday and immediately inserted him into the lineup as the designated hitter against right-hander Chris Bassitt, albeit eighth in the batting order. Urrutia's progress in the organization last year was felled by an injury that forced him to miss more than two months, and he turned in mediocre numbers afterward. He's the latest in a line of non-prospects to get his shot - whether it's Jimmy Paredes, Chris Parmelee, Steve Pearce, Nolan Reimold, Junior Lake or Urrutia, the O's have consistently used a spot in their batting order to try to catch lightning in a bottle, rather than spending more to find a full-time player. For the most part the process has worked - they got good mileage from Pearce last year and Paredes earlier this year, but now Pearce is hurt and had a setback in his rehab, and Paredes is in a massive slump. Urrutia offers some ability to hit for average, but he doesn't run and hits for just modest power. Mixed: $1; AL: $4.

Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox - It's easy to tout a guy coming off of a five-hit game, but Bradley's turnaround began before Saturday. He's had four multi-hit games in his last five starts, and is playing on a regular basis. The Red Sox got some mileage earlier this season from Alejandro De Aza, but it's time to cast him aside (at least, to the bench) and allow the trio of Bradley, Rusney Castillo and Mookie Betts play on a regular basis. There are some parallels from Bradley to the Twins' Aaron Hicks - a highly pedigreed prospect, both excellent defensively, both with some semblance of an ability to take a walk, but both got off to terrible starts in their careers. Sometimes a player needs more reps to fully get it at the big-league level - maybe it doesn't augur towards them being a star, but a player like Bradley or Hicks can be a useful major leaguer if developed properly. Mixed: $5; AL: $12.

J.B. Shuck, White Sox - Shuck came off the DL on Sunday morning and will serve as the fourth outfielder for the White Sox, with the team designating Emilio Bonifacio for assignment to make room. Shuck can steal a base or two, but is an unlikely candidate to hit for power when he does play. Mixed: No; AL: $1.

Preston Tucker, Astros - I just wanted to sound a note of caution about Tucker, who hit a game-tying homer Saturday in the ninth against Bruce Rondon. George Springer has been cleared to resume baseball activities, which means he could be a week or two away. When that happens, Tucker could lose playing time, with the Astros trying to find ways to fit Jake Marisnick and Colby Rasmus into two outfield spots and the DH, assuming that two spots are spoken for between Springer and Carlos Gomez. It's a good problem for the Astros to have, but don't assume that Tucker gets all of the starts against right-handed pitchers. (I'm assuming he's already owned, so no bid amounts posted here.)

Matt Joyce, Angels - Joyce (concussion) is beginning a rehab assignment Sunday at Triple-A Salt Lake, but he's stepping into a suddenly crowded Angels outfield, following the acquisitions of David Murphy, Shane Victorino and David DeJesus. The Angels might stretch out Joyce's rehab assignment until rosters expand in September and he might not play much after that. Mixed: No; AL: $0.

Desmond Jennings, Rays - Jennings returned from the DL on Friday and has started all three games since returning. The Rays sent down Joey Butler to make room for Jennings, clearing the decks for at least all the starts against left-handers. Nominally the Rays are in the wild-card race, but just barely. They should be spending the last six weeks of the season seeing what Jennings has left, because the decisions about him are going to start getting more expensive. It's not as if Grady Sizemore should block him in the long-term, and the short-term considerations are starting to become less important. Mixed: $2; AL: $10.