Hyun Jin Ryu

After three straight seasons with expected ERAs all in the same ballpark, Ryu took a step back last year as his signature changeup lost effectiveness. It's unclear if this is a delayed result after moving to the AL East, age catching up or just happenstance. Ryu's swinging strike mark was tightly bunched between 10.9% and 11.6% from 2017-2020, but it dipped to 9.7% last season, lowering his K% to its lowest since 2017. Ryu's groundball rate also dropped, helping to fuel Ryu's highest home run rate since 2017. If Ryu were five years younger, he'd merit the benefit of the doubt with a rebound expected. However, he's embarking on his age-35 campaign so some decline should be anticipated. However, even with the slippage last season, his ERA estimators nestled around 4.00 which is still viable in mixed leagues. Ryu offers no upside, but if he's available at a (likely) discount, there is profit potential.

Ryu didn't fall short of expectations during his first season as a Blue Jay, posting a 2.69 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 72:17 K:BB across 67 innings of work. He finished the year with a solid 5-2 record, helping his squad to a playoff berth. The 33-year-old was up to his old tricks in 2020, showcasing his pinpoint command while also mixing his pitches effectively to rack up punchouts. Ryu surrendered just six homers and finished with more strikeouts than innings pitched for the first time in his big-league career. He relied on his fastball just 34.7% of the time in 2020 and kept hitters guessing by mixing in his cutter (24.3%) and changeup (27.8%). With his fastball velocity sitting around 90 mph for the majority of his career, Ryu will need to continue to use deception and his impressive command to find success atop Toronto's starting rotation. He's certainly had few issues with over the last three years.

Coming off a season in which Ryu made only 15 starts but pitched to a 1.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, the prudent play was drafting Ryu with an injury discount and having a replacement ready. The ploy paid off in spades as Ryu was essentially his own replacement, repeating the low WHIP with a slightly-higher 2.32 ERA in 29 starts. For much of the year, Ryu was on pace for another season below 2.00, but a four-game stretch with a 9.95 mark spoiled those plans. Spin rate is all the rage, but Ryu's success comes from lack of spin, adding extra action to his changeup while giving a different look to his fastball. He exhibits pinpoint control and command with all his pitches, walking just 24 in 182.2 innings while allowing a stingy 17 homers. Ryu parlayed a rare healthy season into a four-year, $80 million deal with Toronto. His stuff will play in any park, but the move to the AL East is far from ideal.

Ryu only made 15 starts on the season, but made such an impression with the Dodgers that they extended him a qualifying offer, which he accepted. He will make $17.9 million this season while trying to exceed the 150-inning threshold for the first time since 2014. Ryu outpitched his peripherals for a second consecutive season as his ERA and FIP were a full run apart once again -- he has been able to strand more than 80% of runners in each of the past two seasons. Ryu improved his K-BB% 10 percentage points over 2017 by cutting his walk rate nearly in half while upping his strikeouts. Ryu's swinging-strike rate has risen each "full" season he has pitched in the majors. The 192 innings he threw as a rookie remains his high water mark and will likely stay that way for his career. Eventually, the peripherals and the outcomes will collide, but even a full run rise would still leave him with a strong ERA.

Ryu was limited to just one start combined from 2015-2016 due to left shoulder and elbow issues that required surgery, so the fact that he was healthy enough to make 24 starts and pitch 126.2 innings last season is a victory in itself. He still spent a little over a month on the disabled list, but those issues weren't arm related (hip and foot injuries). The southpaw ended up posting a respectable 3.77 ERA, but his 4.74 FIP suggests there was some luck at play (3.2 BB/9, 1.56 HR/9). His command issues can likely be chalked up to rust, as he didn't see a significant dip in velocity on any pitch other than his slider, which he threw significantly less often last season in favor of a newly added cutter. Ryu figures to slot into the back end of the Dodgers' rotation next season, though it seems inevitable that he will have at least a few turns skipped given the team's starting pitching depth and DL games.

Ryu dealt with setbacks in his recovery from a torn labrum in his left shoulder, an injury that cost him the entire 2015 campaign, but he pushed his way through the rehab to return to the mound for the Dodgers in early July. Unfortunately, his comeback was short-lived, as he experienced discomfort in his pitching elbow and did not appear in another game for the rest of the season. During the final week of the regular season, Ryu had an arthroscopic procedure on his elbow to remove damaged tissue from his elbow. It's expected that he will be ready to return during spring training, but with one start under his belt since the end of the 2014 campaign, nothing is guaranteed. If he's healthy, Ryu will take on one of the Dodgers' rotation spots, but he will need to show his pre-injury velocity in order to return to his initial level as a quality mid-rotation starter (3.17 ERA, 1.20 WHIP from 2013-2014).

Ryu was shut down in March after experiencing soreness in his left shoulder. He was originally expected to return in May, but the discomfort lingered, and Ryu ultimately underwent surgery to repair his labrum. Labrum repairs can be tricky, but Ryu started a throwing program in October and the organization expressed optimism that he would return to his prior form. That form has yielded a career 3.17 ERA in 56 starts and solid peripherals - 7.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Ryu relies on a 90-92 mph fastball, slider, and excellent changeup. The shoulder issue has lingered into camp, and he is expected to be out until at least mid-May. The Dodgers hope he can be their No. 4 or at worst, No. 5 starter in 2016 when he returns, but counting on him to return in May is a big gamble, considering how things unfolded last season.

Ryu enters 2015 as a mainstay in the Dodgers' rotation. He had a fantastic stateside debut in 2013 with the skills to back it up and suggest another such season in 2014 was coming. A pair of disastrous outings, during which he allowed 13 earned runs in just 4.1 innings, ruined what could have been a substantial jump in production. Without those starts, his ERA would have essentially matched his excellent FIP (2.62). Of course, you can’t pick and choose which starts to take, but it’s not like his 3.38 ERA was problematic. The only thing that really stopped him was a pair of injuries that cost him over a month of time. The shoulder issue cropped up again in the postseason, which puts some risk in the equation going forward. Thankfully, his price tag didn’t shoot up after 2013 and it’s unlikely to do so after another strong effort, so the discount you should apply for potential shoulder issues in 2015 is built in.

A huge success in his first major league season, Ryu solidified the middle of the Dodgers' rotation, going 14-8 with a 3.00 ERA in 192 innings. With a fastball that sits in the low-90s, Ryu isn't an overpowering guy by any means, but his ratios were solid (7.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9) and the southpaw has a smooth and easy delivery that would seem to make a repeat appear inevitable. He's a near-lock to start the team's third game of the season, especially since the Dodgers can alternate lefties and righties with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Dan Haren locked into the other top-four spots in the rotation.

Ryu has been regarded as one of the most dominant pitchers in Korea for the past six years. He was the 2006 MVP in the Korean Baseball Organization as a rookie, was the winning starting pitcher for the 2008 South Korean Olympic team in the gold medal game against Cuba and was a top starter for South Korea in the 2009 WBC. While he was just 9-9 last season for the Hanwha Eagles, he had a 2.66 ERA with 210 strikeouts and 46 walks in 182.2 innings. The stocky (6-foot-1, 220 pound) left-handed starter has a four-pitch arsenal with a fastball that sits at 88-91 mph, but will reach 94 mph. While several Korean players have become stars in the US, Ryu will be the first player to directly move from the KBO to MLB. As a result, it is hard to know how he will adapt to the changing environment, but he will get a chance to win a spot in a MLB rotation after the Dodgers paid a $25.7 million posting fee and then signed him to a six-year, $36 million contract in December.