Collette Calls: Pitching Prospect Peripherals

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Updated on March 16, 2012 5:32PM EST

One of the things I find helpful when looking at prospects is a quick sheet to peek at overall skills. For several years, I have created a matrix for drafting closers that I have published at Fanball (RIP) and Baseball Prospectus in recent years, as a quick guide to review when deciding between relievers to target. While there are many metrics to review pitchers, there are several key stats that I consider when drafting any kind of pitcher.

Strikeout to walk ratio: If you made me choose one stat to take with me to a deserted island, this would be the one. A pitcher can escape bad fortune with help from BABIP or LOB%, but if a pitcher has a bad K/BB rate, they are their own worst enemy.
HR/9: Can they keep the ball in the yard? There are some year to year variances with pitchers--and in the minor leagues, park effects must be taken into consideration--but if a pitcher cannot limit home runs in the minors, his odds of doing so at the major league level are not very strong.
Groundball rate: The best way to limit home runs is to keep the ball down. If a prospect has a low groundball rate, then other skills have to step up and it helps when that prospect is going somewhere like Petco Park or Safeco Field.
Contact rate: How often are opposing batters making contact with the pitcher's pitches? There can be some insane rates at the lower levels,

Strikeout to walk ratio: If you made me choose one stat to take with me to a deserted island, this would be the one. A pitcher can escape bad fortune with help from BABIP or LOB%, but if a pitcher has a bad K/BB rate, they are their own worst enemy.
HR/9: Can they keep the ball in the yard? There are some year to year variances with pitchers--and in the minor leagues, park effects must be taken into consideration--but if a pitcher cannot limit home runs in the minors, his odds of doing so at the major league level are not very strong.
Groundball rate: The best way to limit home runs is to keep the ball down. If a prospect has a low groundball rate, then other skills have to step up and it helps when that prospect is going somewhere like Petco Park or Safeco Field.
Contact rate: How often are opposing batters making contact with the pitcher's pitches? There can be some insane rates at the lower levels, but context is key with this stat.
Strikeout rate: The less balls in play, the less likely a bad result can happen.
Walk rate: Never help the opposition score. Free passes only help the run expectancy in a given inning.
Splits: This can also have some year to year variance, but more so for hitters than for pitchers. If a pitcher has a rather large split in his OPS against lefties and righties, it speaks to a need for a better tertiary offering. It can also speak to a potential future in the bullpen for a starting pitching prospect.

With that in mind, here is a quick matrix for all of the pitchers that Bernie and I ranked and discussed in the Top 100 piece from two weeks ago.

Rank	PITCHER	IP	GB%	K:BB	HR9	Con%	K%	BB%	OPS SPLIT

1	Matt Moore	155	42%	4.6	0.6	67%	35%	8%	0.189
5	Julio Teheran	144.2	39%	2.5	0.3	77%	21%	8%	0.267
7	Shelby Miller	139.2	40%	3.2	0.3	66%	30%	9%	0.047
8	Dylan Bundy	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
11	Trevor Bauer	25.2	42%	3.6	1.1	55%	36%	10%	0.226
12	Jameson Taillon	92.2	40%	4.4	0.9	56%	25%	6%	0.185
14	Danny Hultzen	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
16	Gerrit Cole	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
17	Jake Odorizzi	147	33%	3.6	1	63%	26%	7%	0.007
18	Manny Banuelos	124.2	49%	1.8	0.7	67%	22%	12%	0.210
19	James Paxton	95	47%	3.1	0.3	52%	34%	11%	0.005
20	Martin Perez	132.1	48%	2.1	0.7	78%	20%	10%	0.105
23	Jacob Turner	131	46%	3.1	0.7	67%	20%	7%	0.031
26	Arodys Vizcaino	97	44%	3.6	0.7	72%	25%	7%	0.084
27	Zach Wheeler	111	46%	2.4	0.6	50%	26%	11%	0.248
28	Tyler Skaggs	158.1	46%	4.0	0.6	57%	31%	8%	0.054
29	Taijuan Walker	96.2	51%	2.9	0.4	48%	29%	10%	0.124
33	Matt Harvey	128.1	49%	3.3	0.4	57%	28%	10%	0.076
34	Zach Lee	109	43%	2.8	0.7	63%	19%	7%	0.068
36	Jarrod Parker	130.2	51%	2.0	0.5	77%	20%	10%	0.180
37	Casey Kelly	142.1	53%	2.3	0.5	80%	17%	8%	0.006
38	Carlos Martinez	84.2	48%	2.2	0.3	55%	26%	12%	0.001
39	Drew Pomeranz	101	41%	3.1	0.3	50%	30%	10%	0.228
40	Robbie Erlin	147.1	35%	9.6	1.1	69%	27%	3%	0.095
42	Randall Delgado	139	41%	2.4	1	75%	23%	10%	0.118
43	Archie Bradley	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
49	Trevor May	151.1	33%	3.1	0.5	47%	33%	11%	0.058
51	A.J. Cole	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
54	Jarred Cosart	144.1	49%	1.8	0.7	71%	16%	9%	0.209
56	Dellin Betances	126.1	46%	2.0	0.6	60%	26%	13%	0.050
59	Wily Peralta	150.2	53%	2.7	0.5	74%	25%	10%	0.102
69	Neil Ramirez	98	31%	2.7	0.6	75%	29%	11%	0.117
72	Tyler Thornburg	130	36%	2.8	0.6	49%	29%	10%	0.030
75	Joe Wieland	155	39%	7.1	0.5	67%	25%	3%	0.059
78	Nathann Eovaldi	103	46%	2.2	0.3	78%	23%	11%	0.069
82	Deck McGuire	125.1	41%	2.8	0.9	59%	24%	9%	0.034
83	Brad Peacock	146.2	36%	3.7	0.6	67%	31%	8%	0.125
85	Daniel Norris	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
86	Addison Reed	78.1	36%	7.9	0.3	55%	38%	5%	0.057
88	Taylor Guerreiri	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
90	Mike Montgomery	150.2	48%	1.9	0.9	78%	19%	10%	0.063
92	Sonny Gray	20	61%	3.3	0	76%	23%	7%	0.238
95	Chad Bettis	169.2	42%	4.1	0.5	51%	27%	7%	0.113
96	Chris Archer	147.1	44%	1.5	0.7	75%	20%	13%	0.010
98	Noah Syndergaard	59	47%	3.8	0.2	48%	29%	8%	0.062

Keep in mind, these are cumulative totals for the pitchers from the 2011 season and that each level and individual league in the minors has different league averages. According to MinorLeagueCentral.com, the league average rate for pitchers and their Contact rate (Con%) last season in the California League was 59 percent. In the Southern League, that rate jumped to 66 percent.

A couple of lines to look at from the worksheet:

Matt Moore had the highest K% amongst all starting pitchers last season, but look who was right behind him: James Paxton. Paxton whiffed 34 percent of the hitters he faced and he was equally effective against righties and lefties while producing a lot of groundballs. That, and his left-handedness in Safeco is one of the reasons I am very high on him.
Neil Ramirez had one of the best K% on this list at 29 percent, but he also had one of the highest contact rates on the list at 75 percent. Bernie's write-up on him said he has a knee-buckling curve along with an average fastball and changeup so there is a good chance that putaway curve was a factor in that strikeout rate.
Despite his struggles with command, Chris Archer was equally effective against righties and lefties last year, which is why it is too early to put him to the bullpen just yet. That said, it is tough to envision him as a starting pitcher when his walk rate is the highest on this entire list and has been for a few seasons.
Julio Teheran has a ton of promise; that .267 split in his OPS seems more like an outlier given the quality of his stuff.
Sort the worksheet by BB% from smallest to largest. I could walk out of a dynasty draft with those first 10 names and be thrilled as those are my types of guys.

Next week, we will look at the hitters under this approach. What skills would you like to see shown for them?