Collette Calls: Back In On Brad Miller?

"I'm all in"

"This guy is for real"

"This guy is underrated"

You will hear fantasy pundits use any or all of those terms when discussing guys they have analyzed, vetted, and have locked into for their own drafting purposes for the coming season. That guy for me this past February/March was Brad Miller.

Miller was there in the mid-teen rounds in drafts and I continued to pluck when in mocks and real drafts whenever possible. In the NFBC draft, I took him in the 17th round and I took him in the 15th round of the FWSA draft. I won't win either league (finishing 2nd and 3rd) but that's not Miller's fault. He has been bad, but drafting Xander Bogaerts in the 12th, Grant Balfour in the 14th, and Shin-Soo Choo in the 2nd round did far more damage to my title hopes.

Shortstop was not a terribly deep position in drafts this season, and there were many reasons to like Miller for 2014. He held his own in his rookie season with a league-average walk rate, better than league-average strikeout rate, and a nice combination of pop and speed. He raked in Double-A Jackson, crushed the baseball in Triple-A Tacoma, and had hit at every level of the minor leagues. Projections for Miller all had him as a potential double-double candidate hitting in the .260-.270 range.

As play began on Wednesay, Miller owned a .205/.281/.342 slash line and his total fantasy value in a 12-team mixed league format was worse than the likes of Zack Cozart, Eric Sogard, and Marwin Gonzalez.

The sophomore slump struck Miller and it struck him hard.

In terms of plate discipline, his drop-off in performance was not too drastic. In fact, he has swung less frequently this season than he did last year, but has also made less contact.

When we see a batter with contact issues, we can look into a few matters. For older players, we can look at loss of bat speed, but that should not be the case with a young player like Miller. When the league picks up on a slow bat, they start pumping more fastballs and challenging the batter to do something with it. In Miller's case, he seeing fewer fastballs in 2014 than he did last year, but he's also doing less with the fastballs he is seeing.

As bad as his decline has been against the fastball, it has been even worse against non-fastballs. These are his numbers against breaking balls and changeups:

In short, one could say that Miller has been on the defensive all season as he's struggled with fastballs and has hidden in fear from non-fastballs. This is the kind of season that can affect a batter's confidence and lead them to struggle in situations they should excel in. Last season, Miller hit .409/.509/.705 when he was ahead in the count; that slash line is .227/.352/.386 in 2014. Only B.J. Upton and Zack Cozart have lower batting averages in hitter's counts this season. The league-wide batting average in those situations is .346.

Another issue with Miller is that he has struggled covering the outer half of the plate. This can happen for batters that leak their front hip out as they try to cheat on fastballs. Given Miller's struggles with the fastballs that also leave him exposed to anything with a wrinkle or offspeed, it is only logical that he struggled with pitches away. We have seen Wil Myers struggle with the same thing this season.

In Miller's case, he has gone through some adjustments in his stance.

First, we see him at the moment the pitcher releases the ball in a September 2013 game:

As Jarrod Parker is releasing the ball, note how Miller is slightly crouched and his stance is slightly closed.

Fast forward to June of this season – same angle, but note the difference in the stance:

Miller remains slightly closed in his stance, but he has ditched the crouch and is more upright in his stance and he has brought his hands in a little closer to his upper torso as he starts his swing. Both behaviors are going to make it tough for Miller to be successful on pitches away on a consistent basis.

To Miller's credit, he appears to have dropped the adjustments from earlier this season as his most recent stance looks much more like where he was last season:

Miller has lost a lot of his playing time to Chris Taylor, but when Miller has played in the second half, he looks somewhat better statistically. He is chasing fewer pitches and has also been more accepting of his walks.

If Miller is going to become an everyday shortstop, it is likely going to be because he is traded somewhere else as Chris Taylor has won that role moving forward. The skills have flashed at times, but the overall body of work is still unimpressive. He has made adjustments in his approach after losing his role. Miller will go from 2014 mid round sleeper to 2015 end game flyer after his performance this season, and he will still be a guy that will end up on a few of my teams.