Collette Calls: The Chosen 10

I could go on and on about the failed process. I do not care that four players were inducted in this class, because there should have been more. We could have had an entire starting rotation of candidates along with an entire infield and an outfield. Instead, we're left with a process determining an honor instead of players' resumes.

All of this silliness got me thinking - what if fantasy baseball drafts and auctions mimicked the ridiculousness Hall of Fame voting process?

The fine folks that run the National Fantasy Baseball Championship leagues have recently begun posting the Average Draft Positions for their 50-man/15-team draft-and-hold leagues. In those leagues, there are 15 players that will be taken in the first round.

But, you can only choose 10, because that's what the original rule was, and still is, for Hall of Fame balloting.

Here is the current top 15 by ADP:

I don't care how cantankerous you are, Mike Trout's case as a top-three pick is not even debatable. Hell, he has been taken top overall in every NFBC draft thus far. After all, last season was his worst fantasy production thus far and he still hit 36 homers, drove in 111 runs, stole 16 bases, scored 115 runs, and hit .287. He's the Barry Bonds of the sport right now.

And that's where the sure-fire part of the first round ends.

In fact, five different players have been taken second overall in the drafts thus far and a legitimate case could be made, for at least four of the players.

Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, Clayton Kershaw, Paul Goldschmidt, and Andrew McCutchen have each been taken second overall in NFBC drafts. Kershaw is the Randy Johnson of the first round - set it and forget it. Even in a season where he missed a few starts on the disabled list, he still out-earned every other starting pitcher in the league. Stanton and McCutchen also dealt with injuries and still finished in the top eight for position player production last season. Goldschmidt, in a partial season, still out-earned the likes of Starling Marte, Matt Holliday, Alex Gordon, and Torii Hunter. Each of these players are likely to make up everyone's top five moving forward the rest of this draft season because of Miguel Cabrera's foot.

The issue with his foot seems to be progressing along nicely, but we won't have another update on its status until his next evaluation that takes place sometime in the next week. If I were filling out my top-five ballot today, Cabrera is not on it. The foot issue raises too many questions of where he is going to be to start the season. As we all learned back in 2013 with Albert Pujols, foot problems are tough on power hitters. In fact, I am not even comfortable taking Cabrera in the top-10 as it stands now with him. Cabrera is essentially the Jeff Bagwell of this first-round ballot. He belongs in the top 10 and he's one of the best players on it, but something doesn't feel right with him. At least with Cabrera, we have medical records to see what is wrong with him and don't have to speculate and smear him to make our case, but I digress.

That brings us to Jose Abreu. This time last year, projections on him were all over the place, with mostly a right of center pessimistic view of what he will do. You did not have to spend $20 to roster him in an AL-only league, even when the hype machine got rolling in March once people saw him crush the ball in the Cactus League. In the end, he hit 36 home runs, drove in 107 runs, batted .317, and scored 80 runs. In a power-starved era of baseball, that 80 grade power is absolutely a first-round pick. He has yet to be drafted outside of the first 10 picks, but that does not mean he doesn't already have his 2015 detractors. I present my good friend and fantasy pundit, Ray Flowers. This is what he had to say on SiriusXM Fantasy the other day - "I don't have Jose Abreu in my top five AT FIRST BASE"

Ray presents a solid argument, and I respect his opinion, but I disagree. Abreu played through pain for two weeks with ankle tendonitis early in the season before missing time on the disabled list. If we parse his data at that point, we get a guy that batted .260/.312/.595 prior to his DL stint and .342/.413/.574 after it. When he came back from the disabled list, he had a 10% walk rate and a 19% strikeout rate - both better than the league average. The 36% HR/FB ratio he had pre-injury settled down to a 24% after the injury. The 5% walk rate and 26% strikeout rate pre-injury screams that this is a guy adjusting to major league pitching and the strong skills after the stint on the disabled list show how quickly he adapted to the game. I'll put this out there now - I'll take Abreu before I take Cabrera in 2015 with the information we have on hand with Cabrera's foot.

Carlos Gomez doesn't feel like a top-10 pick, right? After all, voters know what a first-round guy looks like and this free swinging walk-intolerant batter can't possibly be a first-round pick. Right? Wrong! 2014 was the second consecutive season that Gomez produced at least $30 of value for his owners. Gomez is the only player to go 20/20/.280 in each of the past two seasons. Not Trout, not McCutchen; Gomez. Sure, he has issues with contact, but when he makes it, it's hard and his speed helps him convert outs into hits. With his level of counting stats production, this guy should be in everyone's top 10. Haters gonna hate (hate hate hate hate), but Gomez will shake it off once again in 2015.

Then we get to Felix Hernandez. King Felix has earned at least $30 in three of the last six seasons in single-league play, but also has the "stinker" year when he earned $17. As awesome as Corey Kluber was last season, King Felix actually produced more fantasy value. Clayton Kershaw shattered the pitcher-in-the-first-round glass ceiling, but an improved offense in Seattle could help Hernandez win more than 15 games for the first time in his career and make him a first-round pitcher at season's end.

Jose Altuve just doesn't look right. Nevermind the 5-foot-5 stature, the numbers paint a risk picture.

The 37-point jump in career-best OBP is a concern because Altuve's value is driven by his batting average and steals. A drop in BABIP is going to result in a drop in batting average and OBP, which is going to cut into his stolen base chances. Since Altuve does not walk, he has to hit balls safely into play in order to get on base. He was the only player to put at least 600 balls into play last season, and one of three to put at least 550 balls into play in 2014. Altuve earned $39 in standard mixed leagues last season, which was the fourth-best total in baseball. The only other player to earn at least $25 while hitting fewer than 10 home runs was Dee Gordon. In short, he is going to be hard pressed to come within $7 of what he did in 2014. Raise your eyebrows in suspicion of him being drafted in the top 10.

Hopefully at this point, we've moved past the specter of Jose Bautista being a cheater. That power isn't coming from anything artificial; it's coming from a violent swing and strong discipline of the strike zone. As good as those skills are, we are still talking about a player who has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons. That's the only risk with him because when he plays, he produces. Ignore the low BABIP because the home runs don't count toward that statistic and even though he is overshifted by opposing defenses, he still can hit rockets through the shift. The health risks put him outside of the top 10, but there is a case to be made to have him in the top 15. His teammate, Edwin Encarnacion, has been rather consistent over the past three seasons. He has hit at least 34 home runs in each of the past three seasons, has driven in now fewer than 98 runs, and the slash lines have been strong. He missed some time last year, but overall, has been healthier than Bautista. He has a stronger case to be in the top 10 than Bautista.

Last season, people were wondering if Anthony Rendon was a post-hype sleeper or another hyped bust. He finished 2014 as the 12th-most valuable hitter in fantasy baseball. Now, his current ADP comes ahead of Troy Tulowitzki and he has been taken as high as eighth overall. Rendon's ascension to studdom was slowed by injuries dating back to his collegiate career. One awesome season doesn't erase that kind of history as health histories do not just disappear. Yes,

Rendon was $7 better than any other second baseman in NL leagues and trailed only Altuve in value for mixed leagues, but taking Rendon in the top 10 is asking for trouble.

Speaking of Tulowitzki, there he is still in the first round. He is the Don Mattingly/Larry Walker of this bunch of players. When healthy, he is productive, but he has exactly ONE season with at least 150 games played over the past six seasons. That kind of risk cannot be taken in the top 10 of any draft, yet Tulowitzki has been drafted as high as sixth overall in early drafts. The talent is worthy, but the production is not, and first-round picks are all about production.

Finally, we have Adam Jones. Often, you'll hear HOF voters criticize players for being compilers and that the only reason the player had reached the benchmarks they did is because they played a lot. As if there is a crime in doing such a thing! That aptly describes Jones as he has missed a total of four games over the past three seasons. He is not running as much as he did in the past, but he still bangs out the homers, scores runs, drives them in, and hits for a consistent batting average. In fact, his batting average and BABIP have been remarkably consistent in recent years.

Essentially there are two risks with Jones: he does not resume stealing bases or he gets hurt. He is already transitioning into being a four-category player, but his value relies upon his remarkably excellent health to continue.

In the end, this is the ballot I would submit for my top-10 fantasy players in 2015:

1. Mike Trout
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Giancarlo Stanton
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Paul Goldschmidt
6. Jose Abreu
7. Carlos Gomez
8. Miguel Cabrera
9. Felix Hernandez
10. Edwin Encarnacion