Endgame Odyssey: Closer Roles In Flux

I began calling the endgame aspect of fantasy baseball an "odyssey" a couple of years ago when it became apparent that owners would not be able to pencil in their closers for the upcoming season and simply move on to the management of other categories. In 2014, that odyssey not only continued, but expanded as more than two-thirds of MLB teams either lost their closer for all or part of the season due to injury, or were forced to make a change based on poor performance. That is an attrition rate that makes significant draft day investments in relievers extremely risky.

If you were good – and lucky – you might have drafted a couple of relievers who performed at a high level all season and it resulted in a strong performance for you in the saves category. Most played musical chairs all season, scouring the waiver wire to find a few saves, even if the pickup was a short term solution. Of course, others may have just thrown their hands in the air, and punted the category altogether. That's not a path I like to take. The leagues I play in tend to be far too competitive to punt a category and retain any hope of winning the league title.

Here's a strategy to consider. Target a middle-of-the-pack finish in the saves category, and try to complement other categories with the pitchers you slot into your reliever spots. Opportunities will arise throughout the season, which could result in an even better finish if you acquire a closer from the waiver wire, but you will be in line for a respectable finish in the category by capturing at least a few points, and having accomplished your goal without risking too much of your draft day bankroll.

Focus on acquiring a single closer who is firmly entrenched in the role, has a solid history of success, has proven to be relatively durable, and if possible, one that has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts at a high rate. A really strong closer can provide over 100 strikeouts and is typically a helpful contributor in the WHIP category. Durability is never a guarantee, but a history of success is something you can often count on as long as the history doesn't date back too far.

For your second and/or third reliever spots, look for future opportunity so you can purchase your targets with a minimal investment. Specifically, identify pitchers who are listed to begin the season as the team's closer, but whom you feel are especially vulnerable. Every spring I see pitchers named as their team's closer only to scratch my head and wonder why. Often they are out of a job by May, and I want their replacement on my roster before my fellow owners have even given the scenario much thought. Just be careful – that replacement won't always be the old reliable eighth-inning guy, another arm might be better suited to closing and some managers can be hesitant to move that setup man out of a role he is comfortable filling.

That's how it works. Count on the one big gun to collect enough saves to keep you competitive in the category (mid-level) and hope to move up with those speculative plays. If you play in a league with very short rosters, speculating on future closers is more difficult. If that's your situation, plan on paying very close attention to developing opportunities as they arise. The key is identifying a situation in flux before the other owners in your league.

Let's take a look at some intriguing endgame possibilities for 2015:

Texas Rangers

Here's a scenario I believe could provide an opportunity before we get too far into the season. Neftali Feliz is likely to open the season as the Rangers' closer, but I think he's potentially vulnerable. He missed most of 2013 after having Tommy John surgery, and made just 30 appearances last season after returning mid-year. It could have been rust, but there were times when he just didn't look locked in to me. Further, the live-armed Tanner Scheppers and Kyuji Fujikawa loom in the shadows. Fujikawa was very accomplished in Japan before missing a significant portion of the past two seasons following Tommy John surgery soon after making his MLB debut with the Cubs in 2013. He's an intriguing consideration if he gets off to a strong start and Feliz falters at all.

New York Yankees

The Yankees made only a passing attempt to re-sign David Robertson after he did an admirable job following in the footsteps of Mariano Rivera. Robertson is now with the White Sox, while the Yankees brought in Andrew Miller on a long-term contract. Curious. They also have one of the most dominant arms in the game right now in Dellin Betances. It seems unlikely they will split the closing duties between the left-handed Miller and the right-handed Betances, so one of them is likely to step in full time. Miller doesn't profile as a true closer in my opinion, but Betances has the very appealing ability to pitch multiple innings which makes him a seventh/eighth-inning monster. This is definitely a situation to monitor, but I am leaning toward Betances taking over the job.

Detroit Tigers

Joe Nathan is destined to have a seat in the Hall of Fame, but he may not finish the season as the closer in Detroit. Nathan has a very long history of success, but he faltered frequently last season. The Tigers will give him the chance to begin the season with the job, and they will likely give him plenty of leash if he struggles, but they still have Joakim Soria in their bullpen, and he is not far removed from being one of the most dominant closers in the game. Soria has been through Tommy John surgery twice, but when he's right, he's very good. I have all the respect in the world for Nathan, but I expect to see Soria closing long before the end of the 2015 season.

New York Mets

Some teams don't have any exceptional fits for the closer role, but the Mets potentially have three serious contenders for the job. Manager Terry Collins has said the job is Bobby Parnell's to lose, but Parnell has never carved his name permanently into the seat. He's also coming back from Tommy John surgery and is not guaranteed to be ready for Opening Day after going under the knife last April. Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia both have the credentials, and both are expected to be ready following sports hernia surgeries. Given the choice, I prefer Familia, but Mejia rang up 28 saves last season and looked good doing so, which could make him the early favorite to handle the ninth inning. The Mets could run out a dominant rotation, so whoever grabs the endgame gig here is likely to see a lot of opportunities. Even though I am giving the edge to Mejia, Familia is worth monitoring.

San Diego Padres

This is another situation where the Opening Day closer is unlikely to fill that role all season. Joaquin Benoit is a very competent late-inning reliever, however, he is far better suited to a setup role where the team can more easily manage his workload. He has stepped in and pitched reasonably well since Huston Street was traded to the Angels, but the Padres seem to be looking for someone to rise to the occasion so they can move Benoit back into the eighth-inning job. The most likely benefactor if they move away from Benoit could be Kevin Quackenbush, who went 6-for-7 in save chances as a rookie and pitched to a 2.48 ERA while carrying a 9.3 K/9 last season. As a long shot, perhaps the fragile, but often dominant Brandon Morrow will become an option? Keep both on your list because Benoit has considerable value on the trade market should San Diego fall out of contention, and he could bring a nice return while opening up save opportunities for a dark horse.

Milwaukee Brewers

Francisco Rodriguez gave the Brewers all they could have hoped for and more, but he's gone now and Jim Henderson, who also has closing experience, may not be ready when the season opens, so Milwaukee has tentatively named Jonathan Broxton as their closer. I'm not at all convinced. The team doesn't have a deep bullpen, but they do have a decent rotation when everyone is healthy so perhaps they'll consider letting their top pitching prospect, Jimmy Nelson, enter the season pitching the ninth. Will Smith might be the most likely option, but Nelson may not have a rotation spot if the Brewers' starters remain healthy through spring training. It's intriguing, and it's not the only place where that scenario could come to pass.

Toronto Blue Jays

I'll close with what could be my favorite endgame puzzle for the upcoming season. Think back to 2010-11 when Chris Sale recorded 18 holds and 12 saves for the White Sox while they groomed him for his eventual role as the ace of their rotation. That scenario could be in play again with Aaron Sanchez in Toronto. He doesn't have the same ceiling as Sale in the rotation, but that is where he will likely end up, and he might be a useful closer while they let him develop. It's possible they could just anoint him with the closer's gig, and he'd be a good one, but he offers the highly attractive potential of giving you saves early and then stepping in as a solid starting pitcher when they think he's ready. I like that possibility a lot!

Between the time of this writing and the end of spring training, there are quite a few situations that could change and make a huge impact on the closer map heading into the season. There are arms with closing experience (always a big plus when teams consider them as an option) who are still looking for a spot, and teams that feel they have a significant chance to compete for a postseason berth, but lack a reliable closer right now. Those clubs might make a deal with a team that has that chip in hand. Just keep in mind, those "closers" without a job as the season approaches are probably not as sharp as they once were, making them vulnerable to potentially lose the job and put their team's ninth-inning situation in flux.

Identify those emerging opportunities, and profit with a well-timed move. Good luck in 2015!

This article appears in the 2015 edition of the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide.