This article is part of our The Saber's Edge series.
Reliable stats are just extremely hard to come by early in the baseball season. No team has played 10 games yet. The league leaders in plate appearances is Nori Aoki and Dustin Pedroia with 43. One stat that can be examined because it stabilizes almost immediate is fastball velocity. Here is a look at some pitchers whose velocity change quite a bit from 2014.
For a quick review, here are the six rules to follow when looking at velocity:
• Fastball velocity changes can be taken seriously with a minuscule sample size.
• All pitchers will lose velocity. Be concerned if a pitcher sees a decline of more than 1.0 mph.
• A 1.0 mph drop in velocity means a 1.1 percent drop in K% for starters and a 1.9 percent decline for relievers.
• A 1.0 mph drop in velocity means a 0.28 point increase in ERA for starters and 0.45 increase for relievers.
• When looking at velocity changes, make sure to check if the pitcher is moving from one role to another. Also, make sure his fastball pitch mix hasn't changed.
• If a pitcher loses more than 1 mph in fastball velocity, he has a higher chance of losing another 1 mph than gaining the 1 mph back.
With the basic rules out of the way, here is the complete list of pitchers who threw in both 2014 and 2015. The average value includes all fastballs (2-seam, 4-seam, sinker, cutters, etc.) thrown in each season. I
Reliable stats are just extremely hard to come by early in the baseball season. No team has played 10 games yet. The league leaders in plate appearances is Nori Aoki and Dustin Pedroia with 43. One stat that can be examined because it stabilizes almost immediate is fastball velocity. Here is a look at some pitchers whose velocity change quite a bit from 2014.
For a quick review, here are the six rules to follow when looking at velocity:
• Fastball velocity changes can be taken seriously with a minuscule sample size.
• All pitchers will lose velocity. Be concerned if a pitcher sees a decline of more than 1.0 mph.
• A 1.0 mph drop in velocity means a 1.1 percent drop in K% for starters and a 1.9 percent decline for relievers.
• A 1.0 mph drop in velocity means a 0.28 point increase in ERA for starters and 0.45 increase for relievers.
• When looking at velocity changes, make sure to check if the pitcher is moving from one role to another. Also, make sure his fastball pitch mix hasn't changed.
• If a pitcher loses more than 1 mph in fastball velocity, he has a higher chance of losing another 1 mph than gaining the 1 mph back.
With the basic rules out of the way, here is the complete list of pitchers who threw in both 2014 and 2015. The average value includes all fastballs (2-seam, 4-seam, sinker, cutters, etc.) thrown in each season. I post daily velocity changes with reminders from my Twitter account.
Time to dive in a look at some of the pitchers at the extremes.
GAINERS
Arquimedes Caminero (Pirates) +3.6 mph
All right, I am pretty sure no one had Caminero on their fantasy radar coming into 2015, but he is experiencing a huge breakout. His velocity bump (along with a small Aroldis Chapman decline) is enough to put him with the highest average fastball velocity in the majors. Besides the velocity increase, he has dumped his change and curveball and is only throwing a slider as a second pitch. The slider has been good this season with a 20-percent swinging strike rate. He has a 1.93 ERA and has yet to give up a home run. He is the new shiny object in the Pittsburgh bullpen, which could be in line for some changes. Closer Mark Melancon has a 9.00 ERA and a 3.3 mph velocity drop. I wouldn't jump in now on getting a possible replacement, but I would keep my eye on the situation.
Jesse Chavez (A's) +3.3 mph
I didn't give Chavez any chance of being a useful pitcher after seeing him pitch from the Royals in 2011. Last season, he was a nice No. 4 real life starter with some acceptable numbers. He lost out being in this year's starting rotation and is in the bullpen. His velocity increase is from moving to the bullpen where he has good numbers so far. If he moves back to the rotation, don't expect the numbers to stay up.
Jesse Hahn (A's) +1.6 mph
Now, this is an Oakland pitcher with a real velocity increase as a starter. He hasn't see much of an improvement in his numbers, but be patient. He will pitch more than half his games in pitcher-friendly parks and face Houston (high strikeout rate) and Texas (not good) quite a few times. Even if he isn't a weekly play, he can definitely be used in matchups.
Jason Grilli (Braves) +1.2 mph
I tabbed Grilli as a nice pick for saves before the season. Since Kimbrel wasn't moved during the normal trading period before spring training, I figured Grilli would become the closer at the trade deadline. The Padres ended that prediction. With Kimbrel in San Diego, the closer role is now Grilli's to lose. The added velocity has helped his strikeout rate. Sadly, I think Grilli will now be on the move at the trade deadline. If he continues to throw like he is, a team in playoff contention will try to pick him up. And yes, I don't think the Braves have any chance of making the playoffs.
DECLINERS
Greg Holland (Royals) -2.6
Holland was a stud closer, now the velocity drop may make him a just a damn good reliever. Maybe his K/9 will drop to 11 instead of more than 13. In a keeper league, I might look to move him as he will be 30 next season and his production will eventually drop.
Taijuan Walker (Mariners) -2.6 mph
From the end of last season, through the AFL and spring training, it seemed Walker had finally put it all together to live up to his prospect hype. Then his first regular-season start happened. Two keys for him in upcoming games are to get the velocity back up and throw to the zone more consistently.
Jered Weaver (Angles) -2.6 mph
It's getting to the end of the road for Weaver.
T.J. House (Indians) -2.7 mph
His first outing was the worst possible outcome to start the season: only a third of his pitches were in the strike zone, velocity was down nearly 3 mph and he lasted only 1.1 innings, giving up six runs, six hits, two walks and a home run with two strikeouts. He also hit a batter. He probably couldn't perform worse, so he better improve in his next start. Like Walker, the keys for a bounce back will be increased velocity and the ability to throw strikes.
Ken Giles (Phillies) -2.9 mph
Giles started the season as a nice option to pick up saves with the Phillies looking to trade Jonathan Papelbon. Using the thumb rules, he is in line for a .75 bump in his projected ERA and fewer strikeouts. Giles is probably better than Jake Diekman (seventh-inning guy), and I could see the Phillies wanting to make him their future closer.
Derek Holland (Rangers) -3.0 mph
Holland is on the disabled list, and a few others on this list could join him.
Koji Uehara (Red Sox) -3.9 mph
It has been only one appearance for Uehara after coming off the disabled list, but the velocity is down almost 4 mph. I was amazed an 84-mph fastball was able to cut it for a closer. Now it is at 80 mph. I will be surprised if he stays in the league with a high-school fastball, but he is closing and has been successful doing it.
Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays) -4.2 mph
The move to the bullpen really took some velocity off from his first start. The results were horrible with one strikeout, two walks, seven hits, two homers and three earned runs in 3.1 innings. He was off and his next start will say a lot about him. Can he see any velocity jump? Can he command his pitches? Like House and Walker, he needs to improve in his next start. The talent is there, but he needs to put it together quickly or he could be headed back to the bullpen.
