MLB Barometer: Random Notes

Some random thoughts…

How badly would the Dodgers have to shellac Steven Matz to make him reasonably priced in FAAB next weekend?

The biggest thing missing from my life these days is reading. An actual, physical paperback book. Apparently, Netflix is my new reading, and that's sad. It shouldn't take a vacation on the beach to get back into a good book.

I get so excited every time I see Paul Goldschmidt (13) or Anthony Rizzo (11) steal a base (or see it in the box scores). Goldy is creeping up on his career-high of 18. The last first baseman to steal 20 or more was Derrek Lee in 2003. Unless you count Todd Frazier's 20 last year since he played one-third of his games at first.

Speaking of Lee and 2003, it blows my mind to see the power numbers of that, um, era. Ten first basemen hit 30 or more homers that year. Leading the pack was Jim Thome (47) and Richie Sexson (45). Carlos Delgado swatted 43 and had 145 RBI that year. DFS would have been a blast back then.

The other big void in my life – a son. I guess those things just happen when they're supposed to, but man, I really need someone to pass down my Mark McGwire, Mario Lemieux and Scottie Pippen rookie cards to.

The top four stolen base leaders last season will likely be the top four again this year – some order of Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, Ben Revere, Jose Altuve. Rabbits in baseball are equivalent to first round fantasy football wide receivers.

Nothing elicits nostalgia of the 1980's for me more than catching 'Trading Places' or 'Coming to America' on TV – my two favorite comedies to this day. I still wonder what Randolph and Mortimer Duke did with that bag of money.

In less than a week, 11 of every 12 fantasy owners will be kicking themselves for not jumping on Jose Fernandez earlier in their fantasy drafts. Something tells me he is going to defy the struggles of returning from Tommy John. If he returns this week, it will have been 13.5 months.

Wishing you and your family a very happy 4^th of July weekend.

RISERS

Brett Gardner (OF, NYY) – It may not feel all that long ago that Gardner was the fresh-faced 24-year-old speed prospect called up halfway through Joe Girardi's first season as the Yankees' skipper. Fast-forward seven years, Gardner is now a 31-year-old veteran and is growing into a role as the team's leader, both on the field and in the clubhouse. Gardner's big stolen base seasons (47 in 2010, 49 in 2011) are far behind him, but 2015 may well be his best overall season when it's all said and done. One more homer and Gardner joins Justin Upton and Starling Marte as the only players with 10 HR and 15 SB in the first half of the season. Though he enters the last week of June as the only one of the trio hitting above .300. Gardner still struggles against LHP (.239/.320/.753). He has done a fine job setting the table atop the batting order though, ranking among top 10 outfielders in OBP at .371. His .191 ISO is a career-best – about 30 points higher than last year's when he hit 17 homers. He has been effective on the base paths as well, stealing 15 of his 18 attempts and ranking top 10 in the majors there as well. Gardner had a scorching week at the plate last week (.500, 2 HR, 9 R) and has been a fantastic asset for folks who snagged him in round 12 (on average) of NFBC 12-teamers. It's nice to see Gardner becoming an all-around player and team leader – something the team truly needs following the retirement of future HOF'er Derek Jeter.

Brian Dozier (2B, MIN) – Speaking of veterans and leaders, Dozier is slowly becoming one on an offense that seems to get younger by the month with the recent call-ups of Eddie Rosario and possible future star, Byron Buxton. Of course, the team brought Torii Hunter back and still have Captain Joe Mauer. Dozier was a popular 'fade' at his ADP (62.5) on many experts' lists. He was coming off a monster season where he surpassed 20 HR / 20 SB and ranked second behind Mike Trout in runs (115 to 112), despite coming out of relatively nowhere. Though he went 18-66 with 14 SB in 2013, he was fairly overlooked in 2014 drafts with the concern that he would be a major batting average drain. Back to this season – after a cold start (.220/.305/.671 in April), the naysayers may be second guessing their doubts. Over the last two months, Dozier is hitting .291 with 13 homers – not bad for a leadoff hitter. The Twins have experimented with Dozier hitting second and fourth, but leading off just works for him, and for the Twins. Last week, he hit .360 and boasts an impressive .372 OBP in the month of June. And for those of us who worry about his plate discipline and potential BA damage, let it be known that Dozier drew walks in 12.6 percent of his plate appearances last year and never have any of his four seasons carried a strikeout rate above 20 percent. Even if Dozier hits under .250 again this year, the other statistical contributions far outweigh the deficit in that one category. He still runs a bit (7-of-10 on SB), is tied for the league lead in runs scored, and is tied for 15th in home runs with a powerful group that includes Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Anthony Rizzo and Chris Davis. Dozier is continuing to pull his weight and a career-best ISO (.264 – almost 100 points higher than last year's) points to a new power floor.

Mark Melancon (RP, PIT) – Guess who has been baseball's most valuable closer and saves leader over the last two months? It's crazy to think back to how worried we were in April. Melancon's velocity had dipped tremendously, and his oh so secure job was in jeopardy following two three-run blowups, one of which was a blown save. To add to the fire was a Tony Watson save on April 22 that really scared the bejeezus out of us, myself included. Most interestingly, Melancon had allowed two home runs in his first 15 innings after only allowing three of them over a 142 inning stretch the prior two seasons. Over the last month, it feels like Melancon is a part of the action almost every game. He is the only closer with double-digit saves (11) in June and has not allowed a run since May 11. Melancon's velocity is back up as well and though the strikeouts aren't anywhere near the levels of Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, Melancon looks like the least shaky on the mound of the three. With an incredible pitching coach, starting rotation and great bunch of MR's bridging the gap for Melancon, the Pirates are one of the best teams in baseball for save opportunities, and there is no reason for any of that change in the next three months.

Taijuan Walker (SP, SEA) – Walker is quickly living up to the hype and serves as yet another example of the importance of not making rash decisions, a la the drop. Walker was one of the most hyped young pitchers heading into this season. His ADP flew faster than almost anyone's in NFBC leagues, going from 220 overall in pre-March drafts to 180 after March 1. He gave up 9 ER to the A's in his season debut and if you remember, his body language read 'shock and awe' more than anything. He followed that up with another rough outing, then gave up 7 ER in 3 IP to the Astros in his first May start. Over his last six starts, Walker has been incredible – a 44:3 K:BB ratio, winning five of those starts. Many of us found a great buying opportunity at the end of May, where Walker was prematurely dropped in many NFBC leagues and likely available in trades for pennies on the dollar. His 4.64 ERA is slowly correcting towards his 3.80 xFIP and he is striking out nearly a batter per inning this season. Walker's fastball velocity is up a tick over his last few starts (from 94.5 to 95) as is his swinging-strike rate (from 10 percent to 12). He has a strong home split (2.79 ERA at home, 6.17 away) and gets a two-step against the Tigers and Angels in two weeks (he faces the A's on the road this week). Any opportunity to strike on trigger-happy owners has dissipated. It's the beginning of a beautiful career for Mr. Walker.

HONORABLE MENTIONS:

Matt Duffy (SS, SF) – Hitting third in the Giants lineup lately and has been en fuego. A single away from the cycle on Sunday. A nice front four in June - .326 – 19 R – 5 HR – 15 SB. Skipped Triple-A altogether and has more speed than he leads on – 45 SB over two minor league seasons in 2013 and 2014.

Curtis Granderson (OF, NYM) – I told you a few weeks ago that he still has a little bit left in the tank. Continues to lead off for a woeful Mets offense, but cranked out four homers and hit .458 last week. His .362 OBP is impressive – for him – his best effort in four seasons. 30 homers within reach, but 25 more likely.

Mike Montgomery (SP, SEA) – Former first round prospect of the Royals in 2008. Great outing against the Royals last week – a complete game shutout with 10 K. The lefty mixes in an average fastball with a nice change up and a slow cutter (75 mph) with nice movement. Gets a two-step on the road this week (SD, OAK), but both teams rank bottom-third against LHP in OPS. Would lose the two-step if Hisashi Iwakuma is ready to go, but should stay in the rotation over Roenis Elias.

Roberto Osuna (RP, TOR) – Hoping I got the third closer I was chasing in my two live event NFBC leagues – 16 bucks unopposed in both Main and Primetime last Sunday, right before his first big save. Cecil had been awful and the 20-year-old stepped up with a six-out save on Monday and five-out one yesterday. Has been solid in relief all year and should have been the guy back in April when they gave Miguel Castro a shot. But baseball managers cruely like to make fantasy players spend FAAB on closers all year…

NOT BUYING IT:

Tommy Milone (SP, MIN) – Numbers on last week's two-step looked good (2 ER in 12 IP), but Milone hardly strikes anyone out (5.3 K/9) and the 5.09 FIP compared to his 3.59 ERA is screaming of regression.

Chris Young (OF, NYY) – Hit .362 and drove in seven runs last week – appears to be back on our radars after a cool May (.136/.179/.405). Young works in DFS when in the lineup against RHP (.388 against them, .196 vs RHP). Just keep in mind that Jacoby Ellsbury is back soon.

FALLERS

Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD) – Grandal has certifiably broken out this season, primarily due to his incredible patience at the plate – he ranks eighth in the majors with a 15 percent walk rate. Grandal has also been posting C1 numbers, ranking among the top 10 catchers in HR, R, RBI and OBP.  After a slow start in April (.189, 2 RBI), Grandal had a big month of May, hitting .375 and driving in 18 runs. He has hit five homers over the month of June, but has been a drag on the batting average, hitting .236 since June 1 including a rough 1-for-15 stretch over the past week. Grandal is a switch hitter who doesn't face lefties often (just 26 of his 214 PA) and usually takes a seat for A.J. Ellis (on the bench, not behind the plate) when Clayton Kershaw is on the mound. Though Grandal has been streaky this year, he should continue to be one of the league's best offensive catchers, especially if he continues to walk as often as he does and hit in the middle of a fine Dodgers' lineup.

Mark Trumbo (OF, SEA) – There are not many major leaguers currently more offbeat at the plate than Trumbo. Since being acquired in a trade by the Mariners earlier this month, Trumbo has just 11 hits in 69 at-bats (.159) with one homer and five RBI. The 29-year-old had a phenomenal three-year stretch with the Angels from 2011 to 2013 where he averaged nearly 32 HR and 94 RBI but never carried much hype in fantasy drafts due to the holes in his swing and lack of plate discipline. Simply put, not many thought Trumbo was 'this good'. In his first year with the Diamondbacks last year, Trumbo suffered a stress fracture in his foot and never recovered his trademark power, finishing the season with only 14 homers. Though Trumbo was drafted among the first 100 picks overall in fantasy drafts this year, he seemed like an easy guy to pass on in many leagues, with similar production available later in drafts – the younger Chris Carter or a hopefully-healthy Mark Teixeira. The move to Safeco does him no favors in the power department, and 2015 has been much of the same in terms of walk-rate (under 5 percent) and strikeout-rate (over 20 percent). As Trumbo enters his 30's and continues to offer nothing of value on the defensive end, it looks as though it's all downside from here, and quite possibly a quick exit from the league soon enough.

Nick Martinez (SP, TEX) – Those who waited for the inevitable correction and avoided Martinez were rewarded. After allowing just one earned run over four April starts (0.35 ERA) and having a decent May (3.25 ERA), Martinez was blown to bits over two starts in June, allowing seven and eight earned runs in two of his outings. Right-handed bats hit .311 against him and he has the third worst xFIP (4.80) among qualified starters, behind Kyle Kendrick and Jeremy Guthrie. His fastball is unimpressive and clocks in just under 90 mph. With Derek Holland, Martin Perez and Matt Harrison slowly working their way back to the rotation, Martinez is on borrowed time.

Tim Hudson (SP, SF) – Hudson began his career in the majors back in 1999 and will always be remembered for his days with the Braves and for his durability. Unfortunately, it may be the end of an era for the 39-year-old with Jake Peavy and Matt Cain likely re-entering the rotation this week. He has a 5-7 record with a 4.68 ERA and he allowed five runs on 10 hits in his most recent outing, at home against the Rockies. He was a borderline 15-team pitcher to begin with, but those who have been streaming Huddy for home starts may feel free to drop him.

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS

Austin Jackson (OF, SEA) – Perhaps he will heat up at some point this year, but his performance is lacking and the stats feel empty. Poor .303 OBP as a leadoff hitter and part of the reason it's tough for the Mariners to get that offense in a groove. Very unenticing fantasy option for our outfields.

Michael Cuddyer (OF, NYM) – A very poor week (2-for-19, .105) lead to a seat on the bench on Sunday. His offensive production has been very uninspiring (.249, 6 HR, career-high 23 percent k-rate). Cuddy is no longer a kid at 36. Toto, we're not in Coors anymore.

Michael Pineda (SP, NYY) – A very hard guy to time, it seems. Even tougher when you pretty much have to start him no matter what. Hit hard by the Phillies earlier in the week, crushing DFS and season-long lineups alike. Bounced back like it was nothing against the Astros this weekend (8 IP, 8 K). That 16 strikeout gem against the Orioles last month had owners salivating, but Pineda continues to be a supreme talent but with many flaws, specifically slow in-game adjustment and a touch of immaturity.

Charlie Morton (SP, PIT) – Ground Chuck has failed me enough to drop him in my Main Event league so I bequeath him upon another owner without an ounce of guilt. This is different than dropping a big power pitcher with a great pedigree like Taijuan. Morton gets great run support, but doesn't get the strikeouts and a 9 ER pounding in under one inning is enough to hold a grudge. Mostly, his next two weeks of single starts aren't anything worth forcing into the lineup. Honestly, what have you done for me lately but hurt me, Charlie?

DON'T PANIC ON

Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) – Just one homer in June after 18 in April and May. That's just the way it goes with Streaky Nelly. Still hitting over .300 and always a fantasy asset so long as those hamstrings don't flare up.

Danny Salazar (SP, CLE) – Pitcher starts against a fully healthy Tigers lineup shouldn't count against us, right? Gave up six earned to them last week. 17 percent HR/FB rate much too high, but that's the tradeoff with these types of power arms. A strikeout rate just north of 30 percent is wicked though. Forget that he couldn't get out of the fifth inning in his last two starts. The rebound is in full effect this week when he visits The Trop.