Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Sale-ing into the Second Half

Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Sale-ing into the Second Half

This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change. If something looks incorrect, assume it was a change that occurred since this was posted. Feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week July 20-26

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

RankPitcherOppComments
1Chris Saleat CLECan we just marvel at the 34% K rate? We haven't seen a K rate that high from a starter since RJ, Pedro were at 35% in 2000
2Corey KluberCWSAllowed 8.6 H/9 before arrival of Lindor, Urshela; just 6.6 H/9 in five starts w/the pair
3David PriceSEAK/9 still lagging from 4 in 15 IP vs. KC in back-to-back outings, but in 11 starts since it's up from 6.4 to 9.4
4Felix HernandezTORHe has allowed just 6 ER in 34.7 IP since that 0.3 IP/8 ER disaster at HOU
5Dallas Keuchelat KCHe's not known for Ks and KC doesn't K, so of course he dropped 7 Ks on 'em in 8 shutout IP earlier this year
6Chris ArcherBAL
7Sonny GrayTOR
8Carlos CarrascoCWSAlready has four 5 ER outings, three of which saw him finish fewer than five innings
9Michael Pinedaat MIN
10Masahiro TanakaBALSo this lesser version of Tanaka is essentially a peak Iwakuma w/HRs ultimately determining whether he'll be low-3.00s or mid-3.00s
11Anibal SanchezSEA
12
As always, remember that rotations are subject to change. If something looks incorrect, assume it was a change that occurred since this was posted. Feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week July 20-26

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

RankPitcherOppComments
1Chris Saleat CLECan we just marvel at the 34% K rate? We haven't seen a K rate that high from a starter since RJ, Pedro were at 35% in 2000
2Corey KluberCWSAllowed 8.6 H/9 before arrival of Lindor, Urshela; just 6.6 H/9 in five starts w/the pair
3David PriceSEAK/9 still lagging from 4 in 15 IP vs. KC in back-to-back outings, but in 11 starts since it's up from 6.4 to 9.4
4Felix HernandezTORHe has allowed just 6 ER in 34.7 IP since that 0.3 IP/8 ER disaster at HOU
5Dallas Keuchelat KCHe's not known for Ks and KC doesn't K, so of course he dropped 7 Ks on 'em in 8 shutout IP earlier this year
6Chris ArcherBAL
7Sonny GrayTOR
8Carlos CarrascoCWSAlready has four 5 ER outings, three of which saw him finish fewer than five innings
9Michael Pinedaat MIN
10Masahiro TanakaBALSo this lesser version of Tanaka is essentially a peak Iwakuma w/HRs ultimately determining whether he'll be low-3.00s or mid-3.00s
11Anibal SanchezSEA
12Danny Salazarat MIL, CWSWe've seen the upside, we've seen the downside; there's too much of the former to ignore
13Jose Quintanaat CLEHas a 2.98 ERA in 15 starts since getting blasted for 9 ER at DET
14Garrett RichardsMIN
15Jake Odorizziat PHITOR can wear anyone down; the 5 BB really killed Odorizzi in the 6 ER outing
16Erasmo RamirezBALAmong SPs w/at least his 79 IP or more, his 13% Swinging Strike rate is 12th-best
17Lance McCullers Jr.BOS, at KCRecently faced these exact two teams back-to-back and had a 1.50 ERA in 12 IP w/9 Ks (6 of 'em vs. KC)
18Kyle Gibsonat LAA, NYYOfficially on a run: 2.76 ERA in 65.3 IP w/8.1 K/9 and 3.1 K:BB; he's a second half buy target (2HBT)
19Wei-Yin Chenat NYY, at TBI don't love him in the Bronx even after a 7 IP/1 ER gem there earlier this year, but he's been great on the road (2.57 ERA)
20Andrew HeaneyBOS, TEX
21Jeff SamardzijaSTL
22Hector SantiagoTEXSkills say he's 2013-14 version still, gaudy ERA is heavily influenced by 89% LOB rate - he's a second half sell target (2HST)
23Eduardo RodriguezDET(2HBT)
24Yovani Gallardoat LAA
25Hisashi Iwakumaat DET
26Scott KazmirTOR
27Nate Karnsat PHI(2HBT)
28Ervin Santanaat LAAIs the 1 K in 7.7 IP at OAK an anomaly or has MIN infected him w/their K-hating ways?! (2HBT)
29Yordano VenturaPIT, HOUHe strikes me as someone who will slowly build to a breakout as opposed to have it all click suddenly
30Marco Estradaat SEA
31C.J. WilsonMINIf you're cool w/an upper-3.00s ERA, then just hang on through the rough patches
32Edinson VolquezPIT
33Justin Verlanderat BOSBig start in MIN is promising, but doesn't erase all the damage; still need to see more before fully trusting in all formats
34Ubaldo Jimenezat NYYHad a 4.93 ERA and 1.50 WHIP vs. DET going into the post-break opener; at least he had a 5/0 K/BB in the 4.7 IP (7 ER)
35Taijuan Walkerat DET, TORLopping off his first two starts cuts his ERA by a run, but it's still a 3.88 in 16 starts showing the volatility still exists
36Carlos RodonSTL, at CLEMaintaining a 3.80 ERA despite a 1.61 WHIP speaks to just how good - and raw - he is
37Collin McHughBOS
38Wade Mileyat HOUSeems to shake off every dud w/a gem, but maybe we could just start avoiding the duds?
39Trevor BauerCWS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
40Kevin Gausmanat NYY
41Nathan EovaldiBAL, at MINHas a stark home/road split right now, but a .397 road BABIP hasto come down, right? (2HBT)
42Miguel Gonzalezat TBHR toll coming due: managed a 3.33 ERA despite 1.4 HR/9 in first 12, 7.52 ERA in last four w/2.7 HR/9
43Tommy MiloneNYY
44Ivan NovaBAL
45Drew Hutchisonat OAKHe has allowed 74 H in 47 road innings thanks in part to a .426 BABIP; markedly better at home says road is the fluke (2HBT)
46Cody Andersonat MIL
47Jason VargasHOU
48Jesse Chavezat SFHad a 5.20 ERA last July before moving back to the pen, has a 6.55 ERA in his last four starts (2HST)
49Chris YoungPIT
50Phil HughesNYYFinding his form a bit, but it's still a lesser version than '14 as he just doesn't induce swings-and-misses

SIT

RankPitcherOppComments
51Mike Montgomeryat DET
52Mark Buehrleat OAK, at SEA
53Matt Mooreat PHI, BALCommand and control are the last pieces to return from Tommy John and his were already suspect (2HST)
54Alfredo SimonSEA, at BOS
55Kendall GravemanTOR, at SFThe amount of contact he allows makes me particularly nervous against TOR
56Matt ShoemakerMINThis could be his last start before a shift to the bullpen
57Jered WeaverTEXDisplaying Buehrle's skills from the right side w/out the ratio upside
58Chris Bassittat SFSkills are even lighter than Graveman's and yet the results are somehow better; pass
59Scott Feldmanat KC
60Brian Johnsonat HOU, DET
61Danny DuffyHOU
62J.A. Happat DET, TORA lefty legitimately can't get a worse two-start slate
63Wandy Rodriguezat COL, at LAA
64Colby Lewisat LAA
65Dan StrailyBOS
66CC Sabathiaat MIN
67Chris Tillmanat TB
68Rick Porcelloat HOU
69R.A. Dickeyat SEAUsed to be a guaranteed 200+ IP of league average-esque work; it's just not there right now
70Mike Pelfreyat LAA
71Shane GreeneSEA, at BOS
72Jeremy Guthrieat STL
73John Danksat CLE
74Felix Doubrontat OAK
75Martin Perezat COL
76Matt Harrisonat COL
77Steven Wrightat LAA, DET

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

RankPitcherOppComments
1Gerrit Coleat KC, WASHas gone 6+ in 15 of his 18 starts (1.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 101 Ks in 102.7 IP during those outings)
2Jacob deGromat WAS, at LADThe All-Star game was a perfect microcosm for deGrom, espec. for those missing what he's up to this year
3Matt Harveyat WAS, at LAD
4Max Scherzerat PITThe most aspect of his season is also exhibit 4,739,019 why W-L records mean jack: he has seven losses
5Clayton Kershawat NYMSo stupid that he had fight his way into the All-Star Game; even if you only go off of '15, his ERA is 10th in NL
6Zack Greinkeat NYMMight "only" be a 2.75 ERA the rest of the way; he's an ace either way
7Jake ArrietaPHIA veritable carbon copy of last year's excellence, Arrieta is for real - second half buy target (2HBT)
8Carlos Martinezat CWS, ATLThe only real concern is innings which makes it too hard to make him a buy target, especially for re-draft leagues
9Madison BumgarnerOAKYour league may vary, but it seems perception has him w/worse season than reality; still an easy ace (2HBT)
10Johnny Cuetoat COLYou can't really bench him because he has the stuff to make it outta there alive
11Michael WachaATLBeen backing him from the jump, but while some might be ready to sell out of this ERA, I think he can continue on this level (2HBT)
12Cole Hamelsat CHCWill this be the last start for him as a Phillie?
13Lance LynnKCHe is essentially repeating last year's results with skills that are much more supportive of a sub-3.00s ERA
14A.J. Burnettat KC, WAS
15Francisco LirianoWASLiriano is a scary name in the market which tamps down his value regardless of performance; use that for a discount (2HBT)
16Noah Syndergaardat WASThe only real concern is innings which makes it too hard to make him a buy target, especially for re-draft leagues
17Jason Hammelat CINSmall bump down as a nod to the hamstring, though it appears to have passed
18Gio GonzalezNYM, at PIT
19Jon LesterPHIIt wasn't all bad in April, but just wipe it off the slate to get a better idea of him right now: 2.94 ERA, 85 Ks, 3.4 K:BB in 88.7 IP
20Jose Fernandezat ARIHe's been fantastic, but don't sleep on ARI's ability to actually put up some runs
21James ShieldsSF
22John LackeyATLNot the toxic name value of Liriano, but often underrated; likely a 3.30ish ERA rest of way, but you can buy for 4.00 ERA prices (2HBT)
23Julio TeheranLADHe has been two different versions of himself, but the home one is the one you want right now; upside if he rights road ship (2HBT)
24Shelby Millerat STL
25Tyson RossMIAHas been relatively successful despite the ugly BB rate; if he can slice into it at all, he's on track for 2014-level numbers (2HBT)
26Mat Latosat ARI, at SD
27Brett Andersonat ATL, at NYMIf you have to hit a pair of road starts in a two-start week, then this pair isn't too bad
28Jordan ZimmermannNYM
29Andrew CashnerMIAHis .403 BABIP at home seems out of sorts against a .284 career mark; crazy BABIP is hiding a 6.5 K:BB at home (2HBT)
30Chris Hestonat SD
31Ian KennedySF, MIAHe can't keep allowing homers at a 2.1 HR/9 clip, right? Only two guys have qual'd for ERA while allowing 2.0 HR/9 (Arroyo, Lima)
32Dan Harenat SD
33Patrick CorbinMIL
34Mike LeakeCHCIn the midst of another high: 3.35 ERA in last eight, but there will be an inevitable couple start crash; just ride it out if you have him
35Kyle Hendricksat CINIf you don't like those Mike Fiers/Chris Heston types, then Hendricks and his 89 MPH (9th-slowest) aren't for you
36Jimmy Nelsonat ARI
37Jake PeavyOAK
38Robbie RayMIAPlaying above his head, but has experienced real gains in stuff and feel for pitching; at the very least ride the hot hand
39Chase AndersonMIL
40Rubby De La RosaMIA, MILYelich, Bour, Gordon, Lind, and Parra are the only lefties of note here and Gordon isn't a power threat
41Matt Cainat SD
42Alex WoodLAD
43Mike Bolsingerat ATL
44Mike Fiersat ARIThese soft-tossers have different routes to success, but the lack of overpowering stuff leaves them ever-susceptible to a Shellacking
45Taylor Jungmannat ARIBBs were a major issue for most of '14 and all of '15 in minors, but 7% rate so far; meager 56% 1st-pitch Strike Rate says be careful
46Jorge De La RosaTEX
47Jeremy HellicksonMIA, MIL
48Matt WislerLAD, at STL
49Jon NieseLAD
50Manny Banuelosat STLAt 95 IP already, Banuelos isn't long for 2015 w/a rough cap around 120-130 so use him while you can in appropriate leagues
51David Phelpsat ARI, at SD

SIT

RankPitcherOppComments
52Bartolo ColonLADGotta love the K:BB ratio, but he might find the zone too much to use against a team like LAD (10.1 H/9, 1.2 HR/9)
53Charlie Mortonat KCHas gone 6 IP in each of his three starts since the 0.7 IP/9 ER nightmare, chopping a run off each time w/4, 3, and 2 ER
54Doug Fisterat PIT
55Kyle LohseCLE
56Aaron NolaTBFlying blind on Nola, but he could be a right-handed Andrew Heaney if things really work out
57Raisel IglesiasCHCHow much tolerance do you have for volatility? The raw stuff is there, but the rest comes and goes
58Adam MorganTB
59Tom Koehlerat SDHe's been abysmal on the road this year, regardless of venue type
60Tim Hudsonat SD, OAK
61Anthony DeSclafaniat COL
62Odrisamer DespaigneSF, MIA
63David BuchananTB, at CHCI thought there might be a glimpse of something here coming into the season, but he just can't miss enough bats
64Tony CingraniCHC
65Tanner RoarkNYM, at PIT
66Clayton Richardat CIN, PHI
67Brandon Beachyat ATL, at NYM
68Jeff LockeWAS
69Tim Cooneyat CWS
70Chad BettisCIN
71Chad Billingsleyat CHC
72Chris RusinTEX
73Michael LorenzenCHC, at COL
74Matt GarzaCLE, at ARI
75Kyle KendrickTEX, CIN

MLB Top 100

RankPitcherOppComments
1Gerrit Coleat KC, WASHas gone 6+ in 15 of his 18 starts (1.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 101 Ks in 102.7 IP during those outings)
2Jacob deGromat WAS, at LADThe All-Star game was a perfect microcosm for deGrom, espec. for those missing what he's up to this year
3Matt Harveyat WAS, at LAD
4Max Scherzerat PITThe most aspect of his season is also exhibit 4,739,019 why W-L records mean jack: he has seven losses
5Clayton Kershawat NYMSo stupid that he had fight his way into the All-Star Game; even if you only go off of '15, his ERA is 10th in NL
6Zack Greinkeat NYMMight "only" be a 2.75 ERA the rest of the way; he's an ace either way
7Jake ArrietaPHIA veritable carbon copy of last year's excellence, Arrieta is for real (2HBT)
8Chris Saleat CLECan we just marvel at the 34% K rate? We haven't seen a K rate that high from a starter since RJ, Pedro were at 35% in 2000
9Corey KluberCWSAllowed 8.6 H/9 before arrival of Lindor, Urshela; just 6.6 H/9 in five starts w/the pair
10David PriceSEAK/9 still lagging from 4 in 15 IP vs. KC in back-to-back outings, but in 11 starts since it's up from 6.4 to 9.4
11Felix HernandezTORHe has allowed just 6 ER in 34.7 IP since that 0.3 IP/8 ER disaster at HOU
12Carlos Martinezat CWS, ATLThe only real concern is innings which makes it too hard to make him a buy target, especially for re-draft leagues
13Madison BumgarnerOAKYour league may vary, but it seems perception has him w/worse season than reality; still an easy ace (2HBT)
14Dallas Keuchelat KCHe's not known for Ks and KC doesn't K, so of course he dropped 7 Ks on 'em in 8 shutout IP earlier this year
15Chris ArcherBAL
16Sonny GrayTOR
17Johnny Cuetoat COLYou can't really bench him because he has the stuff to make it outta there alive
18Michael WachaATLBeen backing him from the jump, but while some might be ready to sell out of this ERA, I think he can continue on this level (2HBT)
19Cole Hamelsat CHCWill this be the last start for him as a Phillie?
20Lance LynnKCHe is essentially repeating last year's results with skills that are much more supportive of a sub-3.00s ERA
21A.J. Burnettat KC, WAS
22Francisco LirianoWASLiriano is a scary name in the market which tamps down his value regardless of performance; use that for a discount (2HBT)
23Noah Syndergaardat WASThe only real concern is innings which makes it too hard to make him a buy target, especially for re-draft leagues
24Carlos CarrascoCWSAlready has four 5 ER outings, three of which saw him finish fewer than five innings
25Michael Pinedaat MIN
26Masahiro TanakaBALSo this lesser version of Tanaka is essentially a peak Iwakuma w/HRs ultimately determining whether he'll be low-3.00s or mid-3.00s
27Anibal SanchezSEA
28Danny Salazarat MIL, CWSWe've seen the upside, we've seen the downside; there's too much of the former to ignore
29Jose Quintanaat CLEHas a 2.98 ERA in 15 starts since getting blasted for 9 ER at DET
30Jason Hammelat CINSmall bump down as a nod to the hamstring, though it appears to have passed
31Garrett RichardsMIN
32Jake Odorizziat PHITOR can wear anyone down; the 5 BB really killed Odorizzi in the 6 ER outing
33Erasmo RamirezBALAmong SPs w/at least his 79 IP or more, his 13% Swinging Strike rate is 12th-best
34Gio GonzalezNYM, at PIT
35Jon LesterPHIIt wasn't all bad in April, but just wipe it off the slate to get a better idea of him right now: 2.94 ERA, 85 Ks, 3.4 K:BB in 88.7 IP
36Jose Fernandezat ARIHe's been fantastic, but don't sleep on ARI's ability to actually put up some runs
37James ShieldsSF
38John LackeyATLNot the toxic name value of Liriano, but often underrated; likely a 3.30ish ERA rest of way, but you can buy for 4.00 ERA prices (2HBT)
39Julio TeheranLADHe has been two different versions of himself, but the home one is the one you want right now; upside if he rights road ship (2HBT)
40Shelby Millerat STL
41Tyson RossMIAHas been relatively successful despite the ugly BB rate; if he can slice into it at all, he's on track for 2014-level numbers (2HBT)
42Lance McCullers Jr.BOS, at KCRecently faced these exact two teams back-to-back and had a 1.50 ERA in 12 IP w/9 Ks (6 of 'em vs. KC)
43Kyle Gibsonat LAA, NYYOfficially on a run: 2.76 ERA in 65.3 IP w/8.1 K/9 and 3.1 K:BB; he's a second half buy target (2HBT)
44Mat Latosat ARI, at SD
45Brett Andersonat ATL, at NYMIf you have to hit a pair of road starts in a two-start week, then this pair isn't too bad
46Jordan ZimmermannNYM
47Andrew CashnerMIAHis .403 BABIP at home seems out of sorts against a .284 career mark; crazy BABIP is hiding a 6.5 K:BB at home (2HBT)
48Chris Hestonat SD
49Wei-Yin Chenat NYY, at TBI don't love him in the Bronx even after a 7 IP/1 ER gem there earlier this year, but he's been great on the road (2.57 ERA)
50Andrew HeaneyBOS, TEX
51Jeff SamardzijaSTL
52Hector SantiagoTEXSkills say he's 2013-14 version still, gaudy ERA is heavily influenced by 89% LOB rate (2HST)
53Eduardo RodriguezDET(2HBT)
54Yovani Gallardoat LAA
55Hisashi Iwakumaat DET
56Scott KazmirTOR
57Nate Karnsat PHI(2HBT)
58Ervin Santanaat LAAIs the 1 K in 7.7 IP at OAK an anomaly or has MIN infected him w/their K-hating ways?! (2HBT)
59Yordano VenturaPIT, HOUHe strikes me as someone who will slowly build to a breakout as opposed to have it all click suddenly
60Marco Estradaat SEA
61C.J. WilsonMINIf you're cool w/an upper-3.00s ERA, then just hang on through the rough patches
62Ian KennedySF, MIAHe can't keep allowing homers at a 2.1 HR/9 clip, right? Only two guys have qual'd for ERA while allowing 2.0 HR/9 (Arroyo, Lima)
63Dan Harenat SD
64Patrick CorbinMIL
65Mike LeakeCHCIn the midst of another high: 3.35 ERA in last eight, but there will be an inevitable couple start crash; just ride it out if you have him
66Kyle Hendricksat CINIf you don't like those Mike Fiers/Chris Heston types, then Hendricks and his 89 MPH (9th-slowest) aren't for you
67Jimmy Nelsonat ARI
68Jake PeavyOAK
69Robbie RayMIAPlaying above his head, but has experienced real gains in stuff and feel for pitching; at the very least ride the hot hand
70Edinson VolquezPIT
71Justin Verlanderat BOSBig start in MIN is promising, but doesn't erase all the damage; still need to see more before fully trusting in all formats
72Ubaldo Jimenezat NYYHad a 4.93 ERA and 1.50 WHIP vs. DET going into the post-break opener; at least he had a 5/0 K/BB in the 4.7 IP (7 ER)
73Taijuan Walkerat DET, TORLopping off his first two starts cuts his ERA by a run, but it's still a 3.88 in 16 starts showing the volatility still exists
74Carlos RodonSTL, at CLEMaintaining a 3.80 ERA despite a 1.61 WHIP speaks to just how good - and raw - he is
75Collin McHughBOS
76Wade Mileyat HOUSeems to shake off every dud w/a gem, but maybe we could just start avoiding the duds?
77Trevor BauerCWS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
78Kevin Gausmanat NYY
79Nathan EovaldiBAL, at MINHas a stark home/road split right now, but a .397 road BABIP hasto come down, right? (2HBT)
80Chase AndersonMIL
81Rubby De La RosaMIA, MILYelich, Bour, Gordon, Lind, and Parra are the only lefties of note here and Gordon isn't a power threat
82Matt Cainat SD
83Alex WoodLAD
84Mike Bolsingerat ATL
85Mike Fiersat ARIThese soft-tossers have different routes to success, but the lack of overpowering stuff leaves them ever-susceptible to a Shellacking
86Taylor Jungmannat ARIBBs were a major issue for most of '14 and all of '15 in minors, but 7% rate so far; meager 56% 1st-pitch Strike Rate says be careful
87Jorge De La RosaTEX
88Jeremy HellicksonMIA, MIL
89Matt WislerLAD, at STL
90Jon NieseLAD
91Manny Banuelosat STLAt 95 IP already, Banuelos isn't long for 2015 w/a rough cap around 120-130 so use him while you can in appropriate leagues
92Miguel Gonzalezat TBHR toll coming due: managed a 3.33 ERA despite 1.4 HR/9 in first 12, 7.52 ERA in last four w/2.7 HR/9
93Tommy MiloneNYY
94Ivan NovaBAL
95Drew Hutchisonat OAKHe has allowed 74 H in 47 road innings thanks in part to a .426 BABIP; markedly better at home says road is the fluke (2HBT)
96Cody Andersonat MIL
97Jason VargasHOU
98Jesse Chavezat SFHad a 5.20 ERA last July before moving back to the pen, has a 6.55 ERA in his last four starts (2HST)
99Chris YoungPIT
100Phil HughesNYYFinding his form a bit, but it's still a lesser version than '14 as he just doesn't induce swings-and-misses
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Paul Sporer
Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.
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