Collette Calls: NL Predictions

Ender Inciarte earns more than any Braves batter in 2016. Inciarte hit .319/.358/.443 in the second half of 2015 while doubling his walk rate, reducing his strikeout rate and swiping 12 bases. We have him projected for 83 runs, 25 steals and a .288 average. Everyone else will be chasing Freddie Freeman as his hot spring is pushing his ADP, which has jumped nearly 20 points in the last week. Meanwhile, Inciarte has yet to crack the top 50 for outfielders and is going after extreme risks such as Jay Bruce and Mark Trumbo. Inciarte is one of 13 players we project to score at least 80 runs and steal at least 25 bases, and he has the lowest ADP of the 11 outfielders of that group:

•Mookie Betts: 18
•Charlie Blackmon: 35
•Billy Burns: 147
•Byron Buxton: 174
•Lorenzo Cain: 51
•Carlos Gomez: 51
• Greg Polanco: 90
•A.J. Pollock: 16
•George Springer: 24
• Delino DeShields Jr.: 177
•Ender Inciarte: 190

Milwaukee Brewers

Keon Broxton leads the team in stolen bases. Milwaukee is more likely to compete for the top draft pick than a wild card, which means it should give plenty of players a chance to show what they have for the future. Broxton came over last year in a deal from Pittsburgh and has just a couple plate appearances in the big leagues. Last year in the minors, he stole 39 bases in 54 tries and has regularly swiped 20-plus bases in the minors. He does have quite a bit of swing-and-miss in his game, but so do a number of Brewers. He's a wild-card play in NL Only leagues in the late rounds who can be rostered for nothing and could then steal 15-20 bases if he makes enough contact to stay in the lineup. He has the defensive abilities to play all three outfield positions.

St. Louis Cardinals

Brandon Moss leads the Cardinals in home runs. His home run numbers have been down three consecutive seasons, but let's compare his 2013 season and his 2015 season in a few areas.

Jake Arrieta's final ERA is not below 3.00. He went 18-2 after June 1 with a .223 BABIP, an 85 percent LOB%, and allowed 93 hits in 164 innings while allowing just four home runs. He essentially did over 164 innings what Mariano Rivera was doing in his prime over the course of full seasons. It was simply amazing to watch, but the Plexiglass Principle says teams that improve in one season decline the following year. The same can apply to Arrieta because players that have historically amazing seasons tend to decline the following year. He is 32-11 with a 2.08 ERA as a Cubs pitcher and looking nothing like the guy the Orioles sent away to acquire the services of Steve Clevenger. Arrieta isn't making it out of the second round in drafts, and while the wins should be there for him, the ERA is going to increase due to a mixture of regression and the unpredictable elements in Wrigley Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Daniel Hudson leads the team in saves. Hudson looked great out of the pen last season coming back from multiple arm surgeries and the durability concerns with him should leave him in the pen full time this season. Ziegler is the incumbent, but his skills aren't exactly rock solid while Hudson has a bunch of swing-and-miss in his game and can get the needed punchout in tight situations whereas Ziegler has to rely on the defense to get the out. Hudson is end-game material in NL leagues or deep mixed benches that could be part of that 30 percent of relievers who get 10-plus saves who weren't closers at the start of the season.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Yasiel Puig finishes the season as a top-12 outfielder in mixed leagues. Puig is the 23rd outfielder off the board by ADP with an ADP of 83, putting him behind the likes of Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones, Jason Heyward, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton and Billy Hamilton and just in front of Matt Kemp. Puig had issues with both hamstrings last year and seemed to live full-time in Don Mattingly's dog house. Mattingly is gone and rookie skipper Dave Roberts is in place. A healthy Puig should be a lock for 20-plus homers and a new skipper could put Puig in motion more frequently, allowing him to post a double-double season, getting back to what he did in 2014 as a baseline.

San Francisco Giants

Sergio Romo once again saves 20-plus games. Romo had the closer role in 2013 and 2014 but lost it to Santiago Casilla and didn't get it back in 2015. That should change in 2015 as Romo bounced back last season to show excellent skills in the pen -- even better than what the kid Hunter Strickland did.

Wei-Yin Chen is a top-20 starting pitcher in the NL by season's end. He is 29th in NL-Only leagues by ADP and is going just a few spots behind Kenta Maeda, who has never thrown a major league pitch. What I like about Chen is that he's moving from a park that inflated home runs by 12 percent to one that has suppressed them by 27 percent. Yes, the Marlins are moving in the fences a little bit, but this is still a tremendous improvement in home park for Chen. Additionally, Chen will get to pitch against the rebuilding Braves and Phillies with the unbalanced schedule. The long ball has always been a problem for him as his HR/9 was at least 1.1 in each of the four seasons in Baltimore, his ERA never below 3.34. That should change in 2016 with the change in parks, and he'll get the bump in strikeouts going to the National League as well.

New York Mets

Yoenis Cespedes hits the fewest homers of the regular Mets outfielders. Last season, he was playing for a new contract and posted career highs in HR/FB ratio as well as hard contact. Much like Arrieta, Cespedes performed at an incredible rate in the second half, slugging 95 points higher at .594 compared to the .499 rate in the first half. He hit 22 second-half home runs as 25 percent of his flyballs became homers whereas 13 percent did so in the first half of the season. He should still get to 20, but so will Michael Comforto and Curtis Granderson. All three should hit between 20-25 homers, but Cespedes will bring up the rear.

Washington Nationals

Ben Revere returns to the 40-steal plateau. Revere's running game came to a screeching halt once he was dealt to Toronto last season, but now comes to a team with an old-school skipper that likes to run and has Davey Lopes as a first base coach. The Nationals stole just 57 bases last season, so the acquisition of Revere was done with a purpose because it also means the talented Michael Taylor is marginalized as a reserve outfielder or sent back to the minors. Revere swiped 49 bags two seasons ago for a terrible Phillies team and scored just 71 runs. If everyone behind him remains healthy in 2016, Revere's run total should be at least double his stolen base total.

San Diego Padres

Jabari Blash will hit at least 15 homers. A few weeks ago, I looked at some Rule 5 picks and did not mention Blash. He's made me pay for that as he's been very good this spring in the Cactus League and could open the season in the starting lineup. He hit 32 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season, and while 22 came in the Pacific Coast League, it is worth mentioning that his home park (Tacoma) is one of the few parks in the league that favors pitchers. He will make below-average contact, but he has size and power to all fields.

Philadelphia Phillies

Tyler Goeddel will put up a double-double season as a Rule 5 pick in the outfield. I will simply repeat what I said earlier this month: Philly is looking to strike gold for a second consecutive season in outfielder Tyler Goeddel. Goeddel was drafted as a third baseman by Tampa Bay but was converted to the outfield last season while he spent all year in Double-A. Last season was a career year of sorts for him as he finally showed some power to go with his speed. He has a good approach at the plate and has the athleticism to play all three outfield spots. That's a good thing for Goeddel and the Phillies because right field is anything but locked up. Philly obviously will give Odubel Herrera, last year's Rule 5 steal, his job back, but both corner outfield spots are up for grabs. Goeddel has shown the ability to accept walks throughout his minor-league career, which is ideal when you're hitting in front of the pitcher in the National League. The Phillies will be terrible, which will allow them to give Goeddel all the time he needs to show if he can make the leap from Double-A to the majors and potentially have a double-double season.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Jeff Locke wins 12-plus games with a 3.50 (or lower) ERA. His 2013 and 2015 season were similar in that he made 30 starts in each, but last season he struggled stranding runners and paid for it in ERA. He won 10 games with a 3.52 ERA in 2013 and has somewhat plateaued since. He generates a lot of groundballs for the strong defense behind him to soak up and some breaks could swing him in the right direction. It is tough to find anyone on the pitching staff who could break out, so this is purely a speculation on a guy falling into some fortune.

Cincinnati Reds

Jumbo Diaz leads the team in saves. It will be very weird to watch the Reds and not see Aroldis Chapman coming out of the pen pumping gas in the ninth inning. Some are anointing J.J. Hoover as the new guy, but the only skill he really has is a 20-percent strikeout rate. He struggles to throw strikes, gives up too many free passes and is rather hittable for a closer. Meanwhile, Diaz strikes out more batters, allows less contact and throws more strikes. He too has issues with home runs, but Diaz has the best skills in this pen and should get that closer job at some point early in the season and hold onto it for a bad Reds team.

Colorado Rockies

Gerardo Parra hits .320 and steals 20 bases. Parra has yet to do either, but Colorado can help. He is the type of player who should do very well in Colorado in terms of average because he hits to all fields and makes a lot of medium contact, which means he should be able to take advantage of that expansive outfield as defenders play back to protect the gaps for extra bases. Parra makes quite a bit of contact and an increased on base percentage can lead to more stolen-base opportunities.

Rookie of the Year:Corey Seager

Most Valuable Player (not named Harper):Anthony Rizzo

Cy Young (not named Kershaw):Matt Harvey