Regan's Rumblings: Biggest First Half Disappointments

Given we're approaching July and the All-Star break, let's take a look at the season's first three months and some of the game's bigger disappointments.

Who else would you put here?

Catcher

Yan Gomes, CLE – After he hit a reasonable .264/.286/.471 last September in a disappointing follow-up to a solid 2014, I was fairly bullish on Gomes as a rebound candidate this year. So of course he's hitting .184/.221/.352 so far. In retrospect, it's probably best to be warier on guys whose BB% has continually dropped (5.6% to 3.8%) in tandem with their K% increasing (20.8% to 25%) steadily over the last four seasons.
There has simply been no progress in Gomes' approach at the plate. He's an excellent defender, so that's helping keep his bat in the lineup, but his line drive and hard hit rates are both down while his swinging strike rate has risen from 9.7% in 2013 to 12.7% this year. All signs are trending negatively, and though he's young enough (28) to turn things around, perhaps a change of scenery or a Triple-A stint is in order.

Runner-up:Yasmani Grandal, LAD – The three-run go-ahead homer the other night was nice, but Grandal is hitting just .183/.304/.353 and spawning a few Jonatha Lucroy-to-the-Dodgers rumors. The 14.9% BB% gives us some optimism, but he's doing little else other than drawing walks. So much for Grandal being a top-10 offensive catcher when healthy…

First Base

Mark Teixeira, NYY – We didn't, of course, expect Teixeira to return to his MVP-caliber form, but .180/.271/.263 with three homers in 188 at-bats isn't quite what we expected back in March. Teixeira has seen his K% spike from 18.4% to 26.1% year-over-year, and while he's drawing a fair number of walks, Teixeira is even a shell of his 2015 self when he hit .255/.357/.548 with 31 home runs in just 11 games. Even in a free agent year, there really appears to be little hope that Teixeira will rebound unless perhaps the knee that landed him on the DL recently was the primary cause of his issues and the knee is now 100%. Neither seems likely.

Runner-up:Adrian Gonzalez, LAD – There may be a few Dodgers on this list. Gonzalez currently ranks 31st among first basemen with a 0.0 WAR, meaning essentially he's been a replacement-level player this year. Gonzo is batting .272/.348/.386, so the first two numbers of that line aren't too out of the ordinary given he has hit .276/.335/.482 and .275/.350/.480 the past two years, but the power outage has been the key issue. Gonzalez's 52.1% GB% is way higher than what we've seen (40.7% career mark) from him in the past, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him at least push 20 homers by year's end.

Second Base

Kolten Wong, STL – Wong was the obvious pick here after he hit .262/.321/.386 last year and netted a five-year $25 million contract over the winter. However, he hit .222/.306/.286 through June 5 before being optioned to Triple-A. In seven games there, Wong posted a Ruthian 1.458 OPS and he's now back as a second baseman/center fielder. Wong has a pretty good prospect pedigree and he's shown the ability to be a 15/15 type guy in the big leagues, so as long as the playing time is there, I still see him as an above-average offensive second baseman.

Runner-up:Howie Kendrick, LAD – A Dodger at every position? We'll see. Kendrick's .238/.297/.321 can probably be partially attributed to his lack of regular at-bats, but 212 at-bats at this point in the season is a decent enough sample size to conclude that he's been a big disappointment. He's probably a guy who is going to get maybe two starts a week unless someone gets hurt.

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR – Given Tulo is hitting .213/.297/.404 with nine homers in 202 at-bats, this is an easy choice. Guys like Chase d'Arnaud and Darwin Barney have a higher WAR than Tulowitzki this year if that helps provide context. This is Tulo's 10th full season in the big leagues and he is set to play in 140 or fewer games for the seventh time in those 10 years. Tulowitzki is striking out in a career-worst 24.8% of his plate appearances this year and though his .191 ISO is higher than his .160 mark from last year, I'll give the win to the Rockies on this trade.

Runner-up:Addison Russell, CHC – I thought Russell would take that next step this year, and while I am still very confident in his long-term abilities, 2016 isn't looking like that year. He's hitting just .237/.331/.375. The 11.7% BB% is solid, but Russell continues to struggle to make consistent contact with a 27.6% K%. He'll probably outperform those numbers in the second half, but his true breakout may have to wait until 2017 or later.

Third Base

Chase Headley, NYY – Headley wasn't expected to be a .300/.400/.600 guy, but .250/.325/.3451 with three homers through 63 games? Yeah that wasn't expected either. Headley has hit over 13 homers in a season exactly once, bashing an uncharacteristic 31 in 2012, and given he walks less than 10% of the time, doesn't run much (four steals), and has hit in the .250 range the past four years, Headley not surprisingly finds himself near the bottom of the 3B rankings. Don't expect that to change in the second half.

Runner-up:Matt Duffy, SF – Duffy has been unable to build upon his solid rookie season and is batting just .253/.313/.358 with four homers in 70 games. Duffy has a solid 14% K%, but he has really no track record to suggest he'll develop much of a power bat, relegating him to having a ceiling as an average regular at best.

Outfield

Andrew McCutchen, PIT – McCutchen's eighth big league season is shaping up to be his worst given his .238/.315/.401 slash line that includes a solid 10 homers but just two stolen bases. Given he turns 30 in October, the drop in steals from 27 in 2013 to 11 last year and now just two in 2016 isn't surprising, but McCutchen's spike in his K% the last two years is troubling:

2014 - 17.7%

2015 - 19.4%

2016 – 25.3%

McCutchen has too much talent and is still too young for us to assume he's begun a sharp decline, however. I've fielded multiple trade questions regarding McCutchen being dealt straight up for guys like Adam Duvall and even Trayce Thompson. I expect a strong finish from him, so trade accordingly.

Yasiel Puig, LAD – Puig hasn't been fantasy relevant since 2014, but he's still going to play nearly every day in a crowded Dodger outfield. Puig has seen his BB% drop from 10.5% to 8.4% to 4.5% the last three years, and the degradation in his pitch selection has been the big issue. Puig has also yet to develop the power we had hoped to see by now, and given the plethora of talented outfielders on the Dodgers roster, Puig could find his playing time in jeopardy if he doesn't start hitting soon.

Justin Upton, DET – This seemed like a good signing, but now that Upton is batting .238/.294/.392 with eight homers, a 7.4% BB%, and 33% K%, this looks like a huge mistake by the Tigers. In addition to the ugly strikeout rate, he has seen his ISO drop from .200+ the last three years to .154 in 2016. I guess if you want to look on the bright side, Upton's K% has dropped to 24.7% this month, but he still has a long way to go to regain our trust.

Runner-up:Giancarlo Stanton, MIA – Adam Jones, Randal Grichuk and others could slot in here, but given Stanton was a first-rounder in all leagues, his .211/.311/.427 slash with 13 homers is a huge letdown for fantasy owners. If you watch Stanton, he just looks like he's not seeing the ball well at all right now. Given his past, though, we have to think he'll rebound the rest of the way assuming he's healthy.

Utility

Prince Fielder, TEX – I couldn't do this article without mentioning Fielder's -1.6 WAR and .203/.273/.315 slash that includes just five home runs in 282 plate appearances. Hopefully you wrote him off a long time ago like I did, as right now it's tough to forecast an improvement.

Runner-up: Hanley Ramirez, 1B/OF – Five home runs and a .265/.333/.377 isn't quite what I was expecting, but maybe I was just too hopeful. I'm not so anymore.

Starting Pitching

Shelby Miller, ARI – Miller is back in the rotation and looking to improve upon a 5.46 ERA, 6.0 K/9, and 5.1 BB/9, all ugly numbers for fantasy owners. Miller did toss 6.2 innings of one-run ball in his return from the DL on Monday, but that was against a reeling Phillies lineup, so don't get too excited. His 7.2% swinging strike rate is well below average, so expecting much more than No. 4 starter type numbers looks to be folly.

James Shields, CHW – His hard hit rate is a career worst, and combined with a further slide in his BB/9 to 4.3 this year, Shields may be one of the worst pitchers in baseball right now. Shame on the Padres for signing him prior to 2015, but kudos to them for dumping some of his salary on the White Sox. I wouldn't go near him in any format.

Anibal Sanchez, DET – A 4.2 BB/9 and 1.9 HR/9? Yeah that's a recipe for a 5.97 ERA, which is what Sanchez is carrying right now. Sanchez does have a 1.86 ERA in 9.2 innings since being demoted to the bullpen, so it should only be a matter of time before he rejoins the rotation, perhaps pushing Mike Pelfrey out. I think he'll figure things out and perform at least as an average starter in the second half.

Runner-up:Dallas Keuchel, HOU – Keuchel has been better lately, but a 5.32 ERA is obviously disappointing. He does, however, have a 3.32 xFIP, 8.3 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9, so things should continue to improve.

Relief Pitching

Shawn Tolleson, TEX – With a 7.43 ERA, it's no wonder he's no longer the closer, but Tolleson does have a decent 4.16 xFIP, and his 7.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 are decent as well. He could eventually work his way back into late-inning situations.

Ken Giles, HOU – This trade has been a disaster for the Astros given what they gave up in relation to Giles' 5.40 ERA. That said, his 12.3 K/9 is elite and Giles could eventually close later this year.

Runner-up:Trevor Rosenthal, STL – Rosenthal's stuff remains elite, but a 7.5 BB/9 is absolutely terrible. His 13.5 K/9 is also elite, but his 1.92 WHIP? Not so much.