The Z Files: Finders Keepers

If you don't want to be weeping come October, coming up with a great freeze list in keeper leagues is paramount. Today we'll review some of the planning when identifying your keepers.

Let's start with auctions. Constructing a keeper list involves more than just freezing players expected to earn above their keeper salary. There's inflation to consider, along with determining how long to extend contracts in leagues that bump the freeze price in accordance with the length of contract. First, let's discuss inflation dynamics.

For those new to keeper leagues, inflation is what ensues as players are kept at a price below what they'd cost on the open market. We're dealing with a zero-sum economy. There's a fixed number of dollars chasing a finite level of talent. If the available players are purchased for exactly what they're worth, everyone would leave money on the table. No one wants to do that, so we all pay more than this value-in-a-vacuum amount. That is, we pay an inflated price.

The conventional means of accounting for inflation is calculating the percentage extra needed to be spent on each player, so everyone empties their budget. On paper this seems elegant, but it isn't practical. A $1 player is purchased for $1, not $1.20 or $1.30. A $3 player costs $3. No one pays $4 because 20 percent inflation puts him at $3.60. All the money saved at the low end must go somewhere, and it gets funneled to the best players available in the auction.

Instead of setting a linearly applied inflation rate, it's possible to mimic standard valuation by removing the keepers from the inventory and their freeze amount from the overall money to be spent. Just like in redraft league, you set the lowest player to $1 and scale upward. The result yields high-end players priced above the linear inflation rate, but even this is inexact. Owners with a ton of cash are going to spend it like a drunken sailor. In this zero-sum economy, paying more than the price denoted by linear inflation reduces that rate. Before long, a league that started at 30 percent becomes 20 percent, then 10 percent. Eventually, just like redraft leagues, there's deflation.

Understanding this dynamic is integral to setting a freeze list. Not only are players priced less than their expected worth potential keepers, but so are players costing less than what they'll be purchased for in the auction. The key is not to simply apply the linear rate and decide based on that price. When doing the math, assume a higher rate for the studs and no inflation for the end. Don't keep a $5 player at $7 because you determine a 30 percent inflation rate and the spreadsheet shows the adjusted amount to be $7. On the other hand, a $40 player can be kept for more than his $52 adjusted price, since the inflation incurred at the high-end will be more than 30 percent. This segues into the most common mistake: not freezing high-salaried options.

Your final squad will be composed of your keepers plus the players purchased in the auction. Keeping a bunch of cheap players may seem smart, but this isn't always the case. The following is an example. It's not meant to be representative of all leagues. It's only meant to open your eyes to the advantage of freezing a lot of salary in some scenarios.

You're protecting $120 worth of talent for $60. I'm freezing $230 for $200. Your list is better, right? Maybe, but not definitely.

A decent portion of your available $200 will be used to acquire inflated talent. Let's say you spend $140 to get back $110 worth of expected earnings, leaving the same $60 I have. At this point, we both have accumulated $230 worth of talent with $60 to spend. What if your $140 only buys $100 worth? I'm ahead. The numbers seem arbitrary, but they're quite plausible.

The other prevalent error occurs at the low end, and is more applicable in shallower leagues. Not only should you compare the keeper cost to the expected earning of the player, but there's an opportunity cost associated with that roster spot. Keeping a $4 player for a buck offers $3 profit, but also means you don't have a spot to buy that $5 or $6 player still on the board. Again, this scenario is more likely to play out in a 12-team mixed league than in an AL or NL-only format, but it's worth considering.

Before moving onto drafts, just as some try to quantify inflation, there are some formulas out there to guide contract extensions. In short, estimate the player's earnings over different lengths of the contract, compare that to the total he'll get paid for each scenario, and choose the one in which you're paying less than projected earnings. Again, makes sense but it may not be the most practical. With some players, I'll sacrifice a little roster security over a longer time in lieu of big profit for a shorter time. Have some confidence in your skills at the draft table! I was good enough to draft keeper-worthy players, and I'm good enough to do it again. So are you. Grab the title now, you'll replenish your keepers easily enough. I won't short-change foundational players, but I'll gladly trade an extra couple of years of what would be a $20 player signed to a three-year contract to have him at $10 for a year I'm all-in for the win.

Turning our attention to snake-draft leagues and keepers, not many truly know how to go about deciding if the keeper round is worth the cost. Everyone knows how to count the number of first and second rounders being kept at a much lower round to determine if it's better to lock in an early keeper or have the spot open for what's available. What isn't considered is drafts also are subject to inflation.

Snake draft inflation is harder to account for, since we're not dealing with freeze price and expected earnings. Or are we?

What if we take the prices from a hitting and pitching set, combine them into one and assign the first pick the top salary and work our way down the snake? We now have an estimate of how much each draft pick is worth in auction terms. Something to keep in mind is that the delta between players at the top of the draft is largest. That is, as you get into the draft, the difference between adjacent players is less and less. This is the Slinky effect. Grab a Slinky by the top rung and let it drop to the floor. The rungs closest to your hand are far apart whereas those close to the floor are on top of each other.

With that in mind, here's a couple of tables for converting draft round into its auction equivalent.

12-Team League

15-Team League

Please realize these aren't exact. However, they're close enough to aid in the decision-making process. Find the potential earnings of the player in question, then compare that to the amount assigned to his draft spot. This serves as a nice starting point when identifying keepers in a snake draft.

Here's another trick. Snake drafts obviously don't use salaries, but there's still inflation since players valued in the early rounds are protected in later rounds. Just as you estimate keepers in an auction, you can do that in drafts, slotting each into their respective rounds. Now starting at the top, you take the available players and put them into the open spots to get an idea of what players will be taken at each spot. Compare those players to your potential keeper in that round. If your player is better than what you'll draft at that pick, he's keeper.

Keeper decisions are obviously contextual. There isn't a one-size-fits-all process to derive the optimal freeze list. There is, however, some next level thinking, along with being practical, that helps in this endeavor. Please feel free to post your keeper quandaries in the comments and I'll do my best to cipher out a plan.