Collette Calls: Batter Strikeout Rates

Let's look at batters who are seeing a significant improvement or reduction in their strikeout rate and what has changed since last year. The first group are batters who have seen their rate improve by double-digit amounts in 2017 from 2016 (Min 100 PA in 2017):

Aaron Judge, on the other hand, is not. He has made ballparks look small all season and is triple-slashing .331/.431/.728 when he isn't striking out. Yes, his slugging percentage is higher than a lot of OPS's this season. He is not without weakness though, but when pitchers miss their spots in attacking him, they come up on the losing end of the stick. His strikeout rates are in line with where he was in the minor leagues, but the 46 percent HR/FB rate is still well above any rate of prediction. Even when he is not hitting home runs, he is still hitting the ball extremely hard which is a big reason why he has a .390 BABIP.

Leury Garcia came into the season with two homers and 13 RBIs to his name over four seasons and he has already bested both figures this season. He still is not walking, but he is making a lot more contact these days than he did when he came into the league in 2013 and 2014 and in the handful of at bats he saw in 2015 and 2016. He is doing a much better job of making contact as his swinging strike rate is 8 percent whereas he was over 12 percent coming into this season. Despite this being his fifth season in the majors, he is still not yet 27 years old and regular playing time seems to suit him well. He took advantage of a good spring training and his versatility along with this new leaf on offense should keep him around.

Justin Smoak and Logan Morrison may be two of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season. The Smoak Monster already has 10 homers and 29 runs driven in, which nearly matches what he did last year in 200 more plate appearances. Smoak had seen his strikeout rate worsen each of the previous five seasons to an abysmal 33 percent last year, but has cut that way back down this year and is triple-slashing .279/.342/.550 and hitting like the guy people could not believe the Rangers traded to acquire Cliff Lee in 2010. His new approach has reduced his swinging-strike rate to single digits for the first time in five seasons and his in-zone contact rate is more than 94 percent whereas he has been just above 86 percent throughout his career. That is one of the highest contact rates in the entire league. Back in March, he said he was going to ditch his all-or-nothing approach and he has thus far been true to his word.

The offensive outputs of the previous guys on this list have been great, but Jonathan Lucroy's output has been a disappointment. Beggars should not be choosers and a .272/.317/.404 line from a catcher is rather good, but when you're trailing the likes of Jesus Sucre and Rene Rivera on the catcher leaderboards, you have to wonder what is going on. Lucroy has stopped walking, but he is also making more contact than he ever has in his eight-year career. Pitchers are challenging him early and often as he is seeing first pitch strikes 70 percent of the time, and he is also making contact 97 percent of the time within the strike zone. Perhaps it would behoove Lucroy to go hunting for a certain pitch in an area than hitting the first good strike he sees? After all, in a time where everyone is hitting homers, he's gone from 24 last year to just 3 this year and he is not getting on base much either. It is tough to mess with the success the Rangers are in right now, but Lucroy has been hitting cleanup the past 10 days and the club continues to win. Go figure.

Now, let's look at the hitters who have seen their strikeout rates head in the wrong direction this season:

It is somewhat surprising to see Matt Holliday on this list, even as I watch him go 0-4 with 4 strikeouts against Tampa Bay today. Veterans like this can sometimes struggle when they change leagues, and that really appears to be the case with him. I saw him go oppo taco with a 100 mph heater at his letters last weekend and he is still hitting .266/.370/.508 with eight homers and 27 RBIs despite the issues making contact. As the veteran gets used to the American League pitchers, that should improve and he should continue to enjoy hitting in between Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge.

Trevor Plouffe appears to be sacrificing contact for power as he is already half way to his 2016 home run total but is striking out at a career-worst rate. He is not expanding his zone any more than he has in the past, but he is coming up empty more within the zone than he has in past seasons. Given he changed teams for the first time in his career, perhaps it's just a period of adjustment for him and learning how to see the ball better in a new stadium.

Sticking in Oakland, we know Yonder Alonso is going for more power in his new launch mode. Nobody who owns him cares he is striking out this much now because they've already realized any profit they ever thought they would get from their end game selection with the new approach.

Conversely, we have Tyler Saladino who has seen his strikeout rate jump quite a bit but has yet to hit with any power at all. We recently learned he has been dealing with a sore back, which would explain the complete lack of thump. He showed signs of being a nice player last year, but there is no bat present thus far and since he can't get on base, he also can't run.

Edwin Encarnacion is perhaps feeling the pressure of a new deal and changing teams as well. He has never struggled to make contact like he is in 2017 as his overall contact is a paltry 71 percent and his in-zone rate is below 80 percent for the first time in his career. That .199/.333/.356 line screams buy low as spring becomes summer because, unless he is hurt, he is not going to suddenly go down the Dale Murphy path to retirement (see 1987 to 1988).

Mike Moustakas hit seven homers while striking out 12 percent of the time in an injury-shortened 2016 season. He has already hit 10 homers while striking out 19 percent of the time in this, his walk year before free agency. It is understandable that pending free agent wants to bump up his power numbers so it is not surprising to see him struggling with strikeouts. It is a byproduct of the extra power as he is on pace to set a career high in homers and slugging percentage at a very opportune time.

Nick Markakis is a tough one to figure out. He is in his third year of the National League and has made a career based on high contact rates. Despite him striking out a career-high 22 percent of the time, he's hitting .303/.377/.387 because when he is making contact, the ball is landing safely 40 percent of the time. He is not chasing, and his in-zone contact rate is still a strong 89 percent, but if he is giving up contact for power, it is not working because he has just one more homer than you or I do.

Lastly, Josh Bell does appear to be giving up contact for power. Just watch him at the plate this year and how he is driving the ball to all fields. He has nine homers in 150 plate appearances this year, which triples the three he hit in 152 plate appearances last year. Like Alonso, who cares if he is striking out at the league-average rate if he is going to do it with power. There is room for improvement in his .248/.333/.511 slash line because his 11 percent walk rate is being offset by a .255 BABIP.