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Collette Calls: xwOBA Underperformers

Jason Collette

Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999 at RotoJunkie, Fanball, Baseball Prospectus and now here at RotoWire. He covers the Tampa Bay Rays at You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Towers of Power Baseball Hour Podcast on iTunes. He was selected as the Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year by FSWA in 2013.

One of the things we are always trying to do in fantasy baseball is identify who may break out or change their current course. For pitchers, we look at gaps between ERA and FIP, or more accurately, DRA. Hitting has not always been as easy. For years, we would look at high or low BABIPís or home run to flyball ratio and try to predict what would happen in the coming week.

The good news around that is the tools we have to work on such predictions are becoming more accurate, thanks to the great work around StatCast and the people doing the research around what is being measured. Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) recognizes that not all hits are created equal whereas batting average does. Batting average does not care how many bases the batted ball resulted in, it just cares that X number of hits in Y number of plate appearances equals an average. It is the simplest way for fans at a game or looking at a box score to get a feel for how a hitter is doing at the plate. It is far fr

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