FantasyDraft MLB: Friday Values

FantasyDraft MLB: Friday Values

This article is part of our FantasyDraft MLB series.

PITCHERS:

Ervin Santana, MIN vs. DET ($16,800):- Upper-tier options Chris Sale ($26,100) and Max Scherzer ($24,600) are certainly in play if you can afford them, but Santana boasts a .210 BAA and .297 wOBA over 67 home innings this season, while the Tigers have a .271 wOBA over 185 plate appearances against right-handed pitching on the road in July. Santana has scored over 20 fantasy points in eight starts, over 30 twice and over 40 on one other occasion, so the upside is there for either cash or tournaments.

Trevor Cahill, SD at SF ($16,000):- Cahill stymied the Giants in his last start to the tune of 27.60 fantasy points on the strength of eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings. While he's had his share of road struggles this season, he gets the benefit of perhaps the best pitcher's park in baseball Friday and also faces a team that's posted a 20.9 percent strikeout rate, .281 wOBA and anemic 21.8 percent hard contact rate versus right-handed pitching at home in July.

INFIELD

Nolan Arenado, COL vs. PIT ($10,800):- Arenado's three-homer outburst Wednesday isn't the sole reason for this selection, as Arenado boasts a .489 wOBA, .382 ISO and 1.196 OPS over 58 plate appearances in July. He owns a .416 wOBA at Coors Field as well, including a .362 figure versus right-handed pitching there. Pirates starter Trevor Williams has allowed a .348 wOBA on the road, along with a 26.4 percent line drive rate and 37.3 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Corey Seager, LAD vs. ATL ($9,300):- Braves right-hander Aaron Blair will be making his first start in the majors in 2017 on Friday, but he surrendered a .432 wOBA and 6.48 xFIP to lefty bats last season over a 159-batter sample. Seager owns a .375 wOBA, 25.9 percent line drive rate and 51.9 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching at Dodger Stadium, and a .412 wOBA, .259 ISO and 58.3 percent hard contact rate over 59 plate appearances in July.

Jonathan Schoop, BAL vs. HOU ($7,600):- Schoop has been integral part of the Orioles' recent offensive awakening, racking up a .389 wOBA and .231 ISO over 69 plate appearances in July. Schoop also boasts a .363 wOBA, 22.9 percent line drive rate and 30.0 percent hard contact rate versus right-handed pitching, while Astros starter Mike Fiers has allowed a .404 wOBA (including eight homers), 38.1 percent HR/FB rate and 36.2 percent hard contact rate to righty bats on the road. Meanwhile, Astros relievers have allowed a 5.09 ERA, 25.8 percent line drive rate and 32.3 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters on the road over the last month.

OUTFIELD

Giancarlo Stanton, MIA at CIN ($10,400):- Reds starter Homer Bailey looked like he'd righted the ship for a couple of starts, but he regressed badly against the Nationals his last time out. He's surrendered a .559 wOBA at Great American Ballpark, including a .533 figure to right-handed hitters there. His other home metrics versus righty bats at home include a 5.56 xFIP, 25.0 percent line drive rate and 40.0 percent HR/FB rate, while Stanton sports a .387 wOBA, .299 ISO, 30.7 percent HR/FB rate and 37.2 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. He comes into Friday on a tear as well, having compiled a .487 wOBA (including nine homers), a .526 ISO, 1.228 OPS and 44.2 percent hard contact rate in 69 July plate appearances.

Josh Reddick, HOU at BAL ($8,400):- Reddick owns a .373 wOBA, 24.9 percent line drive rate and 35.0 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching, and a .421 average and three extra-base hits against Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez in 19 plate appearances. Jimenez's subpar season is getting increasingly worse, as he's allowed a 9.88 ERA and .452 wOBA in three July starts. He's also allowed a .452 wOBA , 5.51 xFIP, 2.14 WHIP and 2.57 HR/9 against lefty bats at Camden Yards, and a 31.1 percent HR/FB rate and 32.8 percent hard contact rate to that handedness overall.

Max Kepler, MIN vs. DET ($7,200):- Kepler owns a .364 average, two homers and five RBI against Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez in 13 plate appearances, and a .366 wOBA and 38.3 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching at home. Sanchez has allowed a .388 wOBA and 6.14 xFIP to the 46 lefty bats he's faced on the road, and the Tigers bullpen has allowed a majors-high .470 wOBA (including five homers) and 14.88 ERA to left-handed hitters on the road in the last month.

UTILITY

Justin Bour, MIA at CIN ($9,000):- Reds starter Homer Bailey has struggled against left-handed hitting at home as well, allowing a .586 wOBA, 7.01 xFIP, 25.0 percent line drive rate and 58.3 percent hard contact rate over a modest sample. Bour owns a .364 wOBA, .254 ISO and 44.8 percent hard contact rate versus righties, and a .382 wOBA overall in 65 July plate appearances. The Reds bullpen has also been vulnerable to lefty bats at home over the last month, allowing a 7.57 ERA and .404 wOBA, including a majors-high 11 homers over that stretch.

Dustin Pedroia, BOS at LAA ($8,000):- Pedroia brings a red-hot bat into Friday's matchup against Angels starter Ricky Nolasco, as he sports a .440 wOBA and 1.047 OPS in 81 July plate appearances, a stretch that's generated six games with double-digit fantasy points. He's also hitting righties better on the road overall, posting a .357 wOBA against that handedness away from Fenway. Nolasco has been vulnerable to right bats, giving up a .382 wOBA (including 16 homers), 26.2 percent HR/FB rate and 41.5 percent hard contact rate to that handedness.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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