Oak's Corner: A Look at Some 2018 Fades

The Week That Was

After this weekend, amazingly, there's only one week left in the 2017 baseball season. Fully enjoy these last 10 days and take them in, as while it may seem like the dog days of the fantasy baseball season right now, we all know we will miss it immensely. Last week, I took an initial list at the 2018 first round, and this week I'm going to focus on some players who I think will be over-drafted next year and I will likely not carry them at their anticipated ADP.

• Anyone who listens to the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Podcast that I co-host every Sunday with Jeff Erickson has heard us discuss (probably too many times) the issues that Miguel Cabrera has had in 2017. After eight consecutive seasons over .300, Cabrera has crashed all the way down to .249. His strikeout rate is up over 20 percent for the first time in 12 years and his walks has dropped to 10.2 percent. Cabrera has missed some games with various issues (oblique, back, hip flexor, groin) this season but he has still managed to play in 127 games, making his 15 homers and only 60 RBI an immense disappointment. He had an injury married 2015 season when he hit 18 homers, but he bounced back with 38 homers last year and his ADP coming into this season was a lofty 15.8. His hard hit rate still sits at an elite 43.3 percent; a number that I think many people will point to when evaluating him for 2018.

  As someone who drafted Cabrera in the NFBC Main Event, I have watched a lot of his at-bats this year and I just don't like what I see. I think the lower body and back issues have significantly affected his power as he seems to hit a lot of line drives and fly balls to right field, but they are balls that used to be doubles and homers and now fall in for singles or are caught by outfielders. A closer look at his numbers supports this as his percentage of balls pulled to the left side sits at 32.3 percent, easily the lowest of his entire 15-year career. Cabrera is obviously an all-time great and a Hall of Famer, but my issue with him is I just don't think his body is going to let him be the elite hitter he has been for so long. His ADP will clearly fall a good amount next year, but I think the hard hit rate and his long history of success with still elevate to a spot that will make Cabrera a hard pass for me in 2018.

• Robbie Ray has had an absolutely fantastic 2017, winning 14 games while posting a 2.95 ERA over 155.1 innings. I fully acknowledge his 2017 greatness, but this is about finding guys who I think will be overvalued in 2018. Earlier this week in his Barometer, Vlad Sedler took a look at 2018 starting pitchers and had Ray the second tier of starting pitchers and put him in the top 50 picks overall, a spot I also think he will be drafted at in 2018. That sparkling 12.28 K/9 strikeout rate combined with the ERA could push him even higher as draft season gets going.

  A closer look at Ray reveals some stats I don't especially like, starting with his walk rate of 4.00 BB/9. If I am taking a starting pitcher that early, I don't want one who walks that many hitters, even if the strikeout rate is elite. The other stat that concerns me is the elevated hard hit that Ray possesses which has jumped to over 40 percent this year, a number that leads all of MLB. When you combine that rate with his 41.2 percent fly ball rate, I consider it quite fortunate to have only allowed 21 homers on the season, especially throwing half his games in Chase Field. I realize the stuff is great and I accept the strikeouts will be there, but I am betting on an ERA over 3.50 next season as the walks and hard hit rate finally catch up with him. Ray will be a hot name in 2018 drafts, but I will be passing at his ADP.

• Eric Hosmer has been a fantasy beast this season, especially considering his ADP of 108, as he had contributed across the board with a .323 average, 24 homers, 91 runs and 89 RBI. He powered up last year as he topped 20 homers for the first time in his career, so the power numbers are not a big surprise, but the average rising nearly 60 points has been completely unexpected. He has dropped his strikeout rate back down to 16 percent, which has assisted help the batting average, while managing to maintain the power at the same time.

  My issue moving forward with Hosmer is that I don't buy the power staying at his current level with his profile. Last year, Hosmer struck out more while selling out for power, but also raised his hard hit rate to 34.4 percent. This season, his hard hit rate has dropped to a six year low of 30.1 percent and his fly ball rate has dropped to a career low 22.3 percent, clearly not a good formula we want for home runs. He has managed to hit 24 home runs as his HR/FB rate has climbed to 23.1 percent, a number that puts him in the top 20 in all of baseball, where he is surrounded by guys who regularly hit the ball really hard. Further, when it comes to the batting average, I can't see the .350 Babip repeating in 2018 as his career mark sits at .317. After his great year, his ADP will certainly rise and it will reach a point where he will be a full on fade for me. I am betting on the average dropping and the power dropping, not a combination I want in the top 75, especially from a corner infielder.
  

Free agent additions for the final week are very tough to identify. With expanded rosters and many teams have nothing to play for on the final week, we often see a lot of players rested and pitchers scratched or limited in their innings. Of course, many fantasy leagues are coming down to the wire and a few K's or RBI could decide a league, so trying to find some pieces to help you in the final week is of the utmost importance. Make sure to check the injury news and updated rotations on RotoWire over the weekend as any injury in the last week usually ends up with the team just shutting a guy down. Hopefully, we can identify a few players who are actually available in leagues that might give you that final week boost.

Daniel Mengden: Mengden was recalled by the A's earlier this month and slotted into the starting rotation and has been fantastic in his three September starts. In those starts, Mengden has twirled 22 innings while allowing only two earned runs. Mengden is widely available as he is owned in only 11.9 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues and is scheduled for two starts in the final week, getting a home start against the Mariners and a start at Texas on the final day of the season. Usually the start in Texas would be a concern, but on the final day of the season, assuming the Rangers have been eliminated, who knows how many of their starters will actually take the field.

The A's seem pretty locked into a five man rotation at the moment and while we never know what happens on the final weekend, Mengden looks likely to take the mound for both his starts this week. His strikeout rate so far this year in his 30 big league innings leaves much to be desired at 5.40 K/9, but his rate in 41 Triple-A innings was 8.78 and he also managed at 8.88 K/9 rate last year in 72 MLB innings. I am confident that Mengden makes both his starts, which is hard to find this week, and he is pitching really well right now making him a prime candidate to add if you need wins or strikeouts.

Joe Panik: Panik had an up and down first four months of the season and was hitting just .264 entering August, but has turned it up in big way down the stretch. Since August 1st, Panik has hit a sky high .372 in 121 at-bats with 17 runs and 16 RBI and while power is not his game, he has tossed in four homers. He is playing every day for the Giants and if your team needs an average boost, Panik is only owned in 21.1 percent of NFBC 12-teamers and you could do a lot worse than Panik at middle infield for the final week of the season.

Panik does face some tough pitchers in Arizona to start the week, but two of them are righties and Chase Field is a nice place to hit, and then he finishes the season with three Padres righties at home, a really nice way to end 2017. Prior to his concussion-marred 2016 where he hit .239, Panik topped .300 in his first two season in San Francisco over 173 games. He is someone I like a lot to provide a solid average in full-time at-bats in the final week and also someone I will be looking to target as a late middle infielder in deeper leagues next season.

Jeimer Candelario: The Tigers acquired Candelario in a trade deadline deal with the Cubs as they shipped reliever Justin Wilson to Chicago. After about a month in the Tigers system at Triple-A, the Tigers called up Candelario and have slotted him in as their everyday third baseman, moving Nick Castellanos to the outfield in the process. He has done very little but rake since joining the Tigers, hitting .354 with six doubles and two homers in 19 games, good for a .993 OPS.

In 110 Triple-A games between the two systems this year, he hit 15 homers while hitting .264, but he had an issue with strikeouts with 104 of them in 458 plate appearances, a 22.7 percent K rate. I am not completely sure how I will value Candelario for 2018, but he is hot right now (and he was a Top 100 prospect coming into 2017) and playing every day and hitting in the middle of the Tigers lineup, which that is enough for me to grab him for the final week of the season.

A Closer Look

Sticking with my theme above, Alex Colome is a closer that I think will be over-drafted next season. Colome has been a great fantasy closer this season with to his 45 saves and 3.17 ERA. My biggest concern with him moving into 2018 is the huge drop in his strikeout rate between 2016 and 2017. In his first year as the Rays closer, Colome was dominant with an 11.28 K/9 strikeout rate, but that has dropped way off to 7.85 K/9, which is more in line with his 2015 numbers. His swinging strike rate has dropped significantly at the same time, down to 11.5 percent, down from an exceptional 15.1 percent last season.

Further, Colome's walk rate has jumped from 2.38 BB/9 in 2016 to 3.17 this season, a concerning trend in connection with the strikeout drop. His Coloma's hard hit rate, under 30 percent every year of his career, jumped up to 32.3 percent, another issue to consider when you are taking a close look and ranking the top ten closers. Margins are small when deciding between the top closers and with the trends heading in the wrong direction with Colome; I will likely be passing on him for a different reliever at his anticipated ADP.

Series' of the Weekend

Rockies at Padres, Cubs at Brewers and Cardinals at Pirates. With many of the division races over, the race for the second Wild Card is the best race in baseball with three teams within 1.5 games headed into the final ten days of the season. All three of the series involving these squads will have my attention this weekend. After Thursday night's shutout loss to the Padres, the Rockies have now lost four in a row and their lead on the Brewers sits at only one game and the surging Cardinals have won four in a row to close their deficit to only 1.5 games.

The Rockies and Cardinals get the benefit of playing weaker teams, but they also must do so on the road. The Rockies will be playing in Petco Park this weekend, but they will be happy to send their ace Jon Gray to the hill on Friday night as they attempt to end their skid. Gray has been fantastic recently, allowing three runs or fewer in 11 consecutive starts. Gray has stepped it up even more in the last two months, posting a 2.32 ERA in nine starts since August 1st with nearly a strikeout per inning. That run becomes even more impressive considering four of those starts took place in Coors Field and two of the road starts were against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. The Rockies need Gray in a big way on Friday to stop their losing streak, but the Rockies also need their offense to wake up after being shut out in back to back games on Wednesday and Thursday.

The Cardinals head to PNC Park to face a struggling Pirates team that has lost eight of its last ten games as they finish a very disappointing season. Jose Martinez has given the Cardinals a big lift in September, hitting .371 over 17 games with a 1.015 OPS. If Martinez has someone snuck through the waiver wire in your league the last two weeks, he is someone I would love to grab for the last week hitting in the middle of a lineup on a team that will be going all out in every game. Yadier Molina has not hit for average in September, but he has still contributed in a big way for the Cardinals with 20 RBI in the month, good for 2nd in the National League in that span. Michael Wacha takes the ball for the Cardinals on Friday and while he has been up and down this season and often frustrating for fantasy owners, he is getting hot again at the right time for the Cardinals, posting a 2.75 ERA in his three September starts. He will get to face a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in MLB in both runs scored and OPS since the All Star Break.

Finally, we have the Brewers who get the fun of facing the Cubs who have won eight of their last ten games and are trying to close out the division this weekend. With their tough extra inning loss to the Cubs on Thursday night, the Brewers fell 4.5 games behind Chicago and the Cubs magic number dropped to six. The Brewers will send Chase Anderson to the mound on Sunday who has very quietly posted a 2.74 ERA in 128 innings on the season. Anderson has been even better down the stretch for the Brewers, stepping up with a 1.66 ERA in his four September starts as the Brewers fight to stay in the race despite the loss of Jimmy Nelson. After a lot of rough months since April, Eric Thames has finally caught fire again for the Brewers this month with a 1.148 OPS in 14 September games. If the Brewers are going to make a run this last week and a half, they will need Thames to keep raking.

All three of these series should be fun to watch with so much on the line, especially when you add in the fact that one of the series features the defending champs trying to lock up the NL Central for the second consecutive season.