Farm Futures: AFL Notes

While for many, Luis Urias was a revelation at the Arizona Fall League, those who have followed my work over the past couple years will know that I wasn't surprised by anything he did with the bat, save for the home run he hit in the Fall Stars game:

I was a little surprised at how good he looked at shortstop. He showed average range and an average arm for the position, which will be enough for him to debut there with the Padres, likely this summer. He probably won't play shortstop forever, but he will stick in the middle infield forever, which is still the second most difficult place to find fantasy production after catcher.

This is a player who continues to demonstrate without much doubt that he has one of the best hit tools in the minors. I actually don't think many people would argue with that evaluation at this point. Among prospects I have ranked in recent years, his hit tool is up there with guys like Corey Seager and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The question facing dynasty league owners is how valuable a player like that can be if he is not much of a contributor in the power and speed departments. The second question is how confident we can be that he won't be a moderate contributor in home runs and RBI (we can rule out double-digit steals unless the Padres throw all caution to the wind).

For the first question, let's look at what DJ LeMahieu earned last year when he hit .310 with eight home runs, 95 runs, 64 RBI and six steals in 155 games. He was worth $16 in a 15-team roto league where 68 percent of the budget was allocated for hitters. Among hitters who played close to a full season, that placed him ahead of Javier Baez, Jean Segura and Matt Carpenter, among others. Of course, if the power in the game goes back to its normal levels, that season would be worth significantly more. Given how advanced Urias is and how much I believe in the hit tool, I think we can start getting that LeMahieu-esque production (even without the help of Coors Field) by 2020 or 2021, at which point he will only be 22 or 23 years old. This would give him a six or seven-year prime where he is a monster contributor in batting average and runs while qualifying at shortstop or second base or both.

For the second question, we saw a player like Scooter Gennett, who has a similar body to Urias and had never hit more than 14 home runs in a season, hit 27 homers last year. Jose Ramirez, Jose Altuve, Elvis Andrus, Francisco Lindor and others have proven in recent years that power projections based on physical stature and past accomplishments can be completely meaningless in today's offensive environment. It would be reckless to expect Urias to all of a sudden turn into a 15-to-20 homer threat in the majors, but it would also be foolish at this point to say with confidence that he won't surprise us in the power department.

I love the player. I love the hit tool. I love the opportunity ahead of him. He is already unavailable in serious dynasty leagues and his price tag will have gone up after his performance in the AFL, so there may not be anything actionable here. I'm simply saying that there is no reason to be anything other than extremely optimistic about his long-term value.

Here are some notes on some of the other top prospects I got to see. If there's anyone I didn't touch on who you want to hear about, let me know in the comments or on Twitter.

NOTES

Ronald Acuna lived up to the hype this fall. He is an exceptional talent, and he knows it. On my final viewing (the game after the Fall Stars game) he looked like he was ready to go home, which is understandable. There were times when he was caught chasing breaking balls low and outside, but that's not unique for a fatigued teenager. I heard some evaluators express concern that he was promoted so aggressively this season that he was never at a level long enough for pitchers to adjust to him, which is why he never struggled. I don't really buy that, while acknowledging it wouldn't be surprising at all if he went through a four or six-week slump at some point in 2018 as the book gets out on him. I took him in the eighth round of a 15-team NFBC draft (108 overall) while in Arizona. The depth of the league (50-man rosters) and low stakes allowed me to reach a bit, but I still expect him to regularly come off the board in the 100-130 range in single-season drafts by March.

Victor Robles has displayed all five tools this fall, and his prospect stock has not changed. It's debatable whether he is the No. 3 or No. 4 overall prospect, but in today's environment where power is plentiful and speed is scarce, I'm giving Robles the nod at No. 3 over Eloy Jimenez. He should head to Triple-A and could be back up in the majors this summer.

Kyle Tucker has not produced this fall, but he has said he doesn't really care about his production and is simply working on improving his approach. There is a decent chance the Astros sent him to the AFL to showcase him as a potential trade candidate this winter, as he would fetch more in a deal than Derek Fisher, and they have an overwhelming amount of outfield depth. He certainly hasn't done anything to help his trade value, but he remains an easy top 10 prospect for me.

Estevan Florial was exposed in the box in quite a few of the at-bats I saw. With really no clue what pitch was coming, he was late on average fastballs, which runs counter to what you'd expect from a player with his bat speed. The tools are still pretty nuts, but his struggles serve as a reminder that this won't be a player who cruises to the big leagues. I think he's a couple years away still.

Austin Riley (6-foot-3, 220 pounds) was often the most physically imposing player on the field, in a good way. He was sent to the AFL because the Braves think he's close, so close that we could see him this summer. He is their clear third baseman of the future, and should settle in as a 25-plus home run threat who hits around .270 with good on-base skills. Riley is a top 30 prospect for dynasty leagues. (I'm in the process of working on the offseason top 400, but I know that much).

Michael Chavis was among the most impressive offensive players in the league. He had the best batting practice show before the Fall Stars game, and there was even a Jeff Bagwell comp from a scout. For me, he's Brian Dozier without the speed. That's a nice player, but unless he gets traded, he will be that player at first base or DH, which puts a lot of pressure on his bat maxing out. For the record, I think he could handle third base or, preferably, second base.

Bobby Bradley hasn't done much in the AFL, but I was glad I got to see him on the final day we were there, because he has made huge strides with his conditioning. When he was drafted, he had a lot of baby fat on his frame, but now he looks sturdy, strong and like an actual athlete. This is excellent, as he told reporters last year that he wanted to get into better shape, so for him to follow through on that while also improving his approach after the difficult jump from High-A to Double-A tells us a lot about his work ethic and ability to make adjustments.

Francisco Mejia is a lot smaller in person than what I had envisioned, even though he is listed at 5-foot-10, 180 pounds. He is likely only 5-foot-9, which is jarring for a player regarded as the game's top catching prospect. For the record, I no longer think he holds that title. I think Keibert Ruiz is the best catching prospect in the game. It's clear that the Indians would prefer for him to be a second baseman or third baseman long term, which really hurts his dynasty-league stock. He doesn't project to hit 20 home runs in a season, and while his hit tool is plus, it's not a monster tool like it is for Urias. We also have no idea when and where he fits into the Indians' plans. I think they would love to trade him, but I don't know if anyone will match their asking price. Look to trade him if he can fetch a top-50 prospect in return. He will be quite a bit lower on the top 400 when I update it.

Mitch Keller doesn't have a viable third pitch and can't hold runners on base. There's time to fix both of those shortcomings, but it wasn't a great look in the Fall Stars game. He is a player who will be ranked much higher on real life lists than on my top 400.

Josh Naylor is legitimately fat, and yet he can legitimately run well for a first baseman. The problem is, there's no way to expect him to remain that nimble as he gets into his mid-20s. He has long been lauded for his huge raw power, but he doesn't make much of an effort to get to it consistently in games. Naylor also hardly ever walks for a player with his profile. He is one of the most difficult prospects for me to rank on an annual basis, as I just don't see him ever being a top 12 fantasy first baseman, but there is no doubt he has an advanced knack for putting barrel to ball.

Sheldon Neuse is built like a DH (stocky, strong, not particularly agile) and he regularly made very loud contact. He plays third base now, but I expect him to get a lot of starts at DH when he reaches the big leagues, likely in 2019. There is a chance he gets enough starts in the field to maintain eligibility somewhere, at least early on. I don't find him particularly interesting, but his offensive profile makes him rosterable in leagues where 150 prospects are owned.

Justus Sheffield is currently ranked too low on the top 400. He was trying to throw through the backstop in the Fall Stars game, but for many evaluators who have seen him multiple times, he's the best pitching prospect in the AFL. I don't share this opinion, as I don't see significant upside, but after thinking he was likely to end up in a bullpen, I now think he profiles as a low-end No. 3 starter or high-end No. 4 starter.

Sandy Alcantara is going to be a reliever and a good one. He can be dominant in short bursts, touching triple digits with ease. He may not start the year as the Cardinals' closer, but I would not be surprised if he ended the year closing games for the Red Birds.

Alex Jackson has really hit this fall, but his defense behind the plate appeared to be shaky at best. That should not be surprising for a guy who spent his first three pro seasons in the outfield, it is just worth noting that he isn't close to ready to handle a big-league pitching staff. Look for him to stay in the minors for a couple more seasons. If his defense becomes acceptable, he would easily profile as a top 10 offensive catcher.

T.J. Zeuch was the most pleasant surprise of my trip. I had him pegged as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, but at least in a short stint, he looked like a guy who could hang in the middle of a big-league rotation. He is 22 and only has 99.2 pro innings under his belt, so proving he can handle a full season's workload is really important for him in 2018.

Corey Ray would have been the biggest disappointment in the AFL if I had gone in with any expectations. He can be easily exploited with mid-90s fastballs and breaking balls out of the zone. I doubt he will end up in the top 200 when I finish putting together the top 400.