This article is part of our The Z Files series.
While I'm not a fan of target drafting – the ploy of setting category targets and drafting to surpass each by the time your active roster is complete – I do believe in designing a pitching road map to land on a designated ERA and WHIP. The key to this is breaking the pool into tiers, although after the way my pitching performed over the summer, tears might be a better description of last year's set. Anyway, the process is detailed in an archived Z-Files.
What I'd like to do today is present my initial set of pitching tiers for the 2018 campaign. I'm saving the road map for a later date, as there's a new twist which requires some of the unsettled rotations and bullpens to be fleshed out.
The tiers are a combination of my projections, specific categorical contributions, durability, and reliability with a hint of upside factored into the ranking. They're not simply a ranking based on projected earnings. Speaking of which, these are my own expectations. Jeff Erickson will be handling the site's projections this season.
The tiers are presented in alphabetical order, by design. The reason is to emphasize everyone within each tier contributes equally towards the end goal. Of course, projections differ and when actually choosing an option from each, relative ranking plays a part, but there's so much variance with pitching, each hurler within a specific tier can finish on top or at the bottom solely via random performance fluctuations. That said,
While I'm not a fan of target drafting – the ploy of setting category targets and drafting to surpass each by the time your active roster is complete – I do believe in designing a pitching road map to land on a designated ERA and WHIP. The key to this is breaking the pool into tiers, although after the way my pitching performed over the summer, tears might be a better description of last year's set. Anyway, the process is detailed in an archived Z-Files.
What I'd like to do today is present my initial set of pitching tiers for the 2018 campaign. I'm saving the road map for a later date, as there's a new twist which requires some of the unsettled rotations and bullpens to be fleshed out.
The tiers are a combination of my projections, specific categorical contributions, durability, and reliability with a hint of upside factored into the ranking. They're not simply a ranking based on projected earnings. Speaking of which, these are my own expectations. Jeff Erickson will be handling the site's projections this season.
The tiers are presented in alphabetical order, by design. The reason is to emphasize everyone within each tier contributes equally towards the end goal. Of course, projections differ and when actually choosing an option from each, relative ranking plays a part, but there's so much variance with pitching, each hurler within a specific tier can finish on top or at the bottom solely via random performance fluctuations. That said, the ranking roundtable will return later in the offseason, so you'll be able to see exactly how I rank the arms, along with the ranks of my site colleagues.
Without further ado, here are my initial pitching tears…err… tiers.
TIER 1
Clayton Kershaw
Corey Kluber
Chris Sale
Max Scherzer
For the first time since I've been utilizing this process, Kershaw isn't in his own tier. He's still the best pitcher on the planet, but starting more than 27 games only once in the last four seasons must be considered. This time last year, I was a proponent of drafting the lanky lefty first overall. He's still a first rounder for me, as are Kluber, Sale and Scherzer, just more towards the middle to back end.
TIER 2
Madison Bumgarner
Carlos Carrasco
Jacob deGrom
Zack Greinke
Dallas Keuchel
Robbie Ray
Luis Severino
Stephen Strasburg
Noah Syndergaard
Justin Verlander
Yes, that's right, two Metropolitans in the second tier. Truth be told, Bumgarner is his own tier as he falls in between the elite and this group. Last season's injury has nothing to do with falling out of the elite. I dropped Bumgarner based on two factors. He's not as dominant as the Big Four, but used to make up for a lower K/9 with more innings. That is, he pumped up strikeouts via volume. In the three seasons previous to Bumgarner's mini-bike adventure, he averaged 220 innings. Even if healthy all season, I see him falling 15 or so frames short of that total. In addition, the party line is wins are unpredictable. This isn't really true. There's more variance when projecting wins, but there are some tangible factors like low ERA, pitching deeper into games and getting run support. Bumgarner checks two of the boxes, as despite fewer innings, he'll still averaging more innings per start than most. Run support, however, will be lacking as the Giants should again be among the lowest scoring teams in the league.
TIER 3
Chris Archer
Jake Arrieta
Yu Darvish
Sonny Gray
Zack Godley
Kyle Hendricks
Rich Hill
Carlos Martinez
Aaron Nola
Shohei Ohtani
Jose Quintana
Masahiro Tanaka
Usually, the third group is more populous. The paucity of names is more than the result of ERA trending upward, as everything is relative. It's a case of several quality pitchers in the next tier being injury, or perhaps performance, risks. I like to draft three pitchers from the first three tiers with the expectation I never take them out of my lineup. The inventory of these types of starters has dwindled, feeding into the road map tweak teased earlier.
Ohtani has become a hot-button topic, both in terms of projected performance and how leagues should handle his potential contributions as a pitcher and hitter. With respect to the latter, I invite you to check out my colleague Brian Walton's well-thought-out missive on the topic. As for a projection, I've seen a couple online, and talked to some of my industry colleagues. The consensus matches up well with where my black box lands, an ERA in the mid-threes with more than a punchout an inning, depending on where he signs.
TIER 4
Chase Anderson
Trevor Bauer
Jose Berrios
Luis Castillo
Gerrit Cole
Danny Duffy
Michael Fulmer
Jon Lester
Lance Lynn
Charlie Morton
James Paxton
Garrett Richards
Jeff Samardzija
Ervin Santana
Marcus Stroman
Julio Teheran
Alex Wood
Paxton, Richards and Wood are examples of arms with Tier 3 talent, but who are health risks. Lester, like Bumgarner, is a tweener as he's close to Tier 3 but loses points due to a likely drop in innings from his usual totals. This is a smart move by the Cubs, as there's a lot of mileage on that left wing, but it does cost him some fantasy potential. Like Tier 3, Tier 4 usually has more occupants, but risk drops some other arms a level.
TIER 5
Dylan Bundy
Alex Cobb
Johnny Cueto
Jacob Faria
Kevin Gausman
Lucas Giolito
Gio Gonzalez
Jon Gray
Cole Hamels
J.A. Happ
Kenta Maeda
Lance McCullers
Jordan Montgomery
Mike Montgomery
Jimmy Nelson
Jake Odorizzi
Drew Pomeranz
Rick Porcello
David Price
Jameson Taillon
Michael Wacha
Taijuan Walker
Luke Weaver
Now is where it gets interesting, as this group is a combination of arms known more for their floor like Cueto, Gonzalez, Hamels, Maeda, Odorizzi and Porcello, unproven but promising guys like Faria, Giolito, both Montgomerys, Taillon and Weaver, plus wild cards Bundy, Cobb, Gausman and Price. McCullers fits into the 'elite arm but injury risk' profile, while Nelson is more of a show-me-again type, who unfortunately will miss time to begin the season. This is where raw ranking versus roster composition really takes hold. Where to go within this group is completely dependent on your staff up to this point.
TIER 6
Tyler Anderson
Matt Andriese
Tyler Chatwood
Mike Clevinger
Jharel Cotton
Zach Davies
Jerad Eickhoff
Marco Estrada
Jack Flaherty
Mike Foltynewicz
Jaime Garcia
Luiz Gohara
Felix Hernandez
John Lackey
Dinelson Lamet
Mike Leake
Tyler Mahle
Sean Manaea
Collin McHugh
Ivan Nova
Brad Peacock
Erasmo Ramirez
JC Ramirez
Tanner Roark
Eduardo Rodriguez
CC Sabathia
Danny Salazar
Aaron Sanchez
Matt Shoemaker
Tyler Skaggs
Blake Snell
Dan Straily
Andrew Triggs
Jason Vargas
This group is basically everyone left I'd be willing to stream, based on matchups. As such, I'm less likely to go with a low-strikeout option like Leake, Nova, Roark or Vargas. I'd also likely eschew options with hitting parks as their home venue, since that mitigates the built-in skills advantage derived from working at home. I'm OK with dealing with an injury risk, since most of the time they're deserving of a higher rank but are discounted. This tier is fungible, so if I need to replace an injured player, it's not a big deal. Summing up, give me options with high strikeout potential, working in a neutral or pitching-friendly park to spot in when the situation dictates.
Keep in mind, it's only mid-November. a lot can happen between now and when drafts really kick into gear. Yes, some pay-for-play sites are open for business or soon will be, but these tiers are still a work in progress. We all have to start somewhere; this is where I've landed.
Please feel free to hit me up in the comments. I'll do my best to respond quickly.
