This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Last week we looked at the NL East, and for the next five weeks I'll continue to throw out some names for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2018 season. Let's get to it and look at the:
American League East
Baltimore Orioles – The O's are a team with a couple of solid starting pitchers, followed by a collection of huge question marks. We'll start with something all regular Musings' readers will find very familiar. It's time for me to make my annual trek to the Shrine of the Eternal Believer where I'll once more anoint Kevin Gausman with the "ace" tag. Some call me dedicated, some call me stubborn and some call me crazy. I suppose I could plead guilty to all counts, but I still see it. I admit my confidence wavered a bit as he was nothing short of awful into July of last year, but the light came on (he figured things out mechanically and regained his confidence). He should come at a significant discount, and if he pitches like he did in the second half, his value will be through the roof. Most owners will list Dylan Bundy as the top pitcher on the staff, and he did have a decent season last year, but I expect him to be somewhat overvalued again on draft day. The team just inked Andrew Cashner
Last week we looked at the NL East, and for the next five weeks I'll continue to throw out some names for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2018 season. Let's get to it and look at the:
American League East
Baltimore Orioles – The O's are a team with a couple of solid starting pitchers, followed by a collection of huge question marks. We'll start with something all regular Musings' readers will find very familiar. It's time for me to make my annual trek to the Shrine of the Eternal Believer where I'll once more anoint Kevin Gausman with the "ace" tag. Some call me dedicated, some call me stubborn and some call me crazy. I suppose I could plead guilty to all counts, but I still see it. I admit my confidence wavered a bit as he was nothing short of awful into July of last year, but the light came on (he figured things out mechanically and regained his confidence). He should come at a significant discount, and if he pitches like he did in the second half, his value will be through the roof. Most owners will list Dylan Bundy as the top pitcher on the staff, and he did have a decent season last year, but I expect him to be somewhat overvalued again on draft day. The team just inked Andrew Cashner, and the scary thing is, he's pretty solidly entrenched as their No. 3. It's possible he'll fare reasonably well, but I'm not very optimistic. The O's also just re-signed Chris Tillman, and barring any other free-agent adds, that leaves the last spot to guys like Miguel Castro, Gabriel Ynoa and Mike Wright. Castro has a little upside, and I'll be watching to see if Tanner Scott can eventually make it as a starter, but on the whole, none of them really warrants fantasy attention.
Heading into 2017, Zach Britton had firmly established himself as a pure stud. Then he was hobbled by a long list of injuries. A forearm strain, an MCL injury and a knee injury all contributed to a lost season, and then he suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in December that's expected to keep him out until June. Brad Brach is a competent option, bur Britton will be their guy, if and when he can prove he is 100 percent healthy.
Recapping the Orioles:
The arm to own:Kevin Gausman
He's not for me:Gabriel Ynoa
Best of the bullpen:Brad Brach (at least early on)
Boston Red Sox – There are very few pitchers whom I would prefer owning over Chris Sale. I've loved the guy since he arrived in the majors, and despite shuddering on virtually every pitch because of his violent pitching motion, I readily confess to a serious man-crush. Unfortunately, I have rarely owned him, simply because he always carries a premium price tag, and I'm always shopping for value buys. He typically justifies that price tag, but you'll have to pay to own him. Conversely, David Price has recently struggled to pay his way in fantasy circles. Health issues, most notably recurring elbow soreness, have been contributors I'm sure, but I think the issues date back further and may be more pronounced than we hear about. I'll steer clear. As much as I like Rick Porcello, even I wasn't ready to buy into his 2016 Cy Young season. I didn't think he would experience the disaster that was 2017, but some regression was inevitable. Realistically, he's somewhere in between the two seasons, and I might nudge him a bit toward the better side of the coin. Drew Pomeranz draws the four spot, and that's an appropriate role for him. He routinely gets pegged higher than I have him on my depth chart, so I'd recommend a conservative bidding approach. Both primary candidates for the five spot are coming off knee surgeries. Eduardo Rodriguez should get the nod over Steven Wright when they're ready, but if the need arises before that, I would expect Hector Velazquez to get the ball. None of them are all that appealing.
I said this last year, and I'm going to say it again, Craig Kimbrel always makes me a bit nervous. He still rings up tons of strikeouts, but he also has shown a disturbing tendency to misplace the strike zone at times. I'm also not thrilled about the team's plan to use him more in non-save situations. He'll be the guy if he avoids any monumental meltdowns, or injuries, but he'll also come at a premium price. I think Joe Kelly is the best bet to caddy for Kimbrel, and Tyler Thornburg also could be a consideration.
Recapping the Red Sox:
The arm to own:Chris Sale
He's not for me:Drew Pomeranz
Best of the bullpen:Craig Kimbrel
New York Yankees – The Yankees are going to score a lot of runs, and they have a pitching staff that can take full advantage. Luis Severino made quite a splash in 2015 but then gave his owners a bit of a bath in 2016. Here's my note from last preseason: "I'm inclined to give Severino a mulligan for last year and plug him into the rotation. His numbers were probably ugly enough to chase a lot of owners away, so there could be some value here." He provided value and then some. He may not be quite as good in 2018, but I expect a solid season. Sonny Gray has yet to solidify his position as a top-of-the-rotation starter with the Yankees, but he may benefit from the shorter starts he'll likely see with the team's deep pen. I like Gray when he's in sync but I'm hesitant to invest the money it will take to get him in most leagues. However, their No. 3 could leapfrog Gray and potentially even push Severino for the top spot. Masahiro Tanaka struggled through some nagging injuries and a failure to consistently hit his spots last season, but a jump in velocity, and a return to pinpoint command late in the year, bode well for him. I'm buying if he comes with the anticipated discount. Jordan Montgomery is next in line, and even though he has just modest stuff, his command of his repertoire is adequate to do no harm at the back of a fantasy rotation. Now 37, C.C. Sabathia will take the final spot, but I'm not expecting much fantasy production. He had a fairly productive year in 2017, but I think we'll see some five-inning stints and skips when the schedule allows. The other candidates for a starting gig all have some skills. I would give the edge to Chad Green over Chance Adams and Luis Cessa, but he's blocked from a contributing role heading into the season.
The Yankees have one of the most talented and deepest bullpens in baseball. As much as that benefits the team in real life, it actually can hurt the starting staff's fantasy value a bit. There's no reason not to use this pen early and often so fewer innings, and slightly fewer wins is rather likely. Smoke-thrower, Aroldis Chapman will garner the majority of the saves, but nearly as filthy set-up man Dellin Betances may get a few scraps if/when Chapman needs a day off. They also have David Robertson with closing experience, plus Tommy Kahnle, Adam Warren, lefty Chasen Shreve and a guy who caught my eye, Jonathan Holder, but there's only so much fantasy-relevant work to go around.
Recapping the Yankees:
The arm to own:Masahiro Tanaka
He's not for me: C.C. Sabathia
Best of the bullpen:Aroldis Chapman
Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays quietly are slipping into rebuilding mode, but it has been an organization known for developing young pitchers. Chris Archer is the first name associated with Tampa Bay. In many ways he deserves it. He has a big arm, and he rings up a lot of strikeouts. When he's on, he can be a handful. That said, I tend to shy away given his usual price tag. He can overthrow at times, which straightens everything out and impacts his command. He compensates by throwing his wicked slider almost half the time and that has to be wearing on his arm. The guy who most intrigues me is Blake Snell. He's got the tools, and I think he's going to realize that soon. His struggles at the MLB level last year might create a value play this spring. I also like Nathan Eovaldi a lot, but he missed all of last year following Tommy John surgery. He needs to continue the progress he was showing in 2016, so perhaps temper your expectations. Jacob Faria is the next up, but he isn't really high ceiling in my eyes. A solid prospect, Brent Honeywell, eventually will claim a spot, but it might be May or June, as they look to delay his arbitration clock. And, in late breaking news, the Rays just added Anthony Banda in a deal with Arizona. He's another good young arm and is a better option than Matt Andriese. I expect both Honeywell and Banda to develop into fantasy assets, but it could be next season before they achieve their full potential.
This bullpen is also in flux, and their closer the last two years (84 saves over the two seasons), Alex Colome, has repeatedly surfaced in trade rumors. It's probably only a matter of time before he changes uniforms. I don't see an heir in veterans Sergio Romo or Dan Jennings, and the better young bullpen arms like Andrew Kittredge, Ryne Stanek, Jose Alvarado, or even Chih-Wei Hu, have hurdles to clear. If forced to pick (guess) one it probably would be Kittredge, but don't quote me.
Recapping the Rays:
The arm to own:Blake Snell
He's not for me:Chris Archer
Best of the bullpen:Alex Colome
Toronto Blue Jays – I'll start with Marcus Stroman, who always manages to make me nervous (like all extreme groundball pitchers). He needs tight defense behind him, and there will be occasional big innings, but the double plays he generates help a lot in curtailing opponent's scoring. A big bounce-back year could be in the cards for Aaron Sanchez, who suffered with blister problems and a strained finger most of last season. Word is it's all behind him, but I'm skittish. If he's good to go, he could be a steal on draft day. I'm not sure he can better his 2016 numbers but he could come close to matching them. J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada remain reliable, workhorse types who typically provide solid innings and put themselves in a position to win games. Happ actually is a solid target for me on draft day. I believe some early rough outings due to minor elbow inflammation and a couple midseason spankings darkened his overall stat line enough to trim his draft price. His peripherals point to a better 2018. The team acquired Jaime Garcia to help fill out the rotation. He's a step up from Joe Biagini, who's a nice long reliever but struggles a bit when over-exposed in a starting role, and life in the Rogers Centre facing divisional opponents is not the ideal scenario. I'll toss one more name into the mix for dynasty players. Nate Pearson is unlikely to land in Toronto this year, but when he does, you want to own him.
Despite some anxiety issues, Roberto Osuna pitched like he didn't have a care in the world. He actually suffered some bad luck, leading to 10 blown saves, but the 23-year-old came right back every time. I love his stuff and I anticipate a dominant year. The Jays will need that, as their most reliable set-up guy, Dominic Leone was dealt to St. Louis. Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes and Aaron Loup are competent pre-closing arms, and I'm curious to see where newcomer Jake Petricka slots in, but Osuna is the closer.
Recapping the Blue Jays:
The arm to own:J.A. Happ
He's not for me:Jaime Garcia
Best of the bullpen:Roberto Osuna
Next week we'll look at the NL Central.
