MLB Barometer: One-Year Risers: Pitchers

Last week, I took a look at the position players whose value has increased the most over the course of the past calendar year.

As the All-Star break approaches at the end of the weekend, this week's piece focuses on the pitchers that have been the biggest risers in value since this time last year (the past calendar year from July 8th of 2017 through July 8th of 2018).

Like an All-Star roster, there are a few names that didn't make the final cut that are worthy of acknowledgment (i.e. Charlie Morton, Tyler Skaggs and Zach Eflin).

Each player's overall NFBC average draft position is included beneath the position headings.

The goal of looking back at a longer range is to develop a better understanding of what has caused these shifts in value and how sustainable the increased production might be going forward.

With the All-Star break next week, there will not be a Barometer for the week of July 16th, and the piece will return July 23rd.

Starters

Trevor Bauer, CLE (ADP: 130.95) -- Admittedly, Bauer was a player I had given up on after four straight seasons with an ERA above 4.00 and a WHIP over 1.30. My excitement about him as an elite prospect had long since faded when he was beginning to put the pieces together in the second half of 2017. He's been a top-10 starting pitcher since last July, firing 205 innings with a 2.68 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 0.70 HR/9. If we were drafting teams for the rest of this season, Bauer might be the first pitcher taken after Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber and Luis Severino are off the board. With a career-high 94.6 mph average fastball velocity, Bauer's four-seamer has been a positive pitch for the first time in his big-league career. His slider has been excellent, while his curveball and changeup have been better than average offerings.

Improving the slider was something that Bauer emphasized during the offseason, as detailed by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, but it started last July. That pitch is one of four in his arsenal that has generated whiff rate of 35 percent or more in 2018. Players are often making adjustments, and Bauer has a deep knowledge of his craft, which has helped him find a new level of success that should prop up a top-30-40 ADP this winter.

Blake Snell (ADP: 196.53) -- Control was Snell's major skill flaw upon arrival in 2016 (5.2 BB/9), and slow progress last season prompted me to deal him away as a cheap keeper in an effort to cash in an AL-only keeper league in early August of 2017. I didn't cash, and that turned out to be a pretty costly attempt to crack the top-three of that league, as Snell significantly cut down on the free passes late last season, and has pitched like an ace in 2018. The last-season momentum wasn't enough to push his ADP much above 200 this draft season, but he's well on his way to helping a lot of fantasy owners to championships as one of the best draft-day values of the year. Snell still issues more walks than the elite starters (3.4 BB/9 in 2018), and there is still room for improvement with his fastball command, but he's throwing two pitches (slider and curveball) with whiff rates above 45 percent this season, and has the raw stuff in his arsenal necessary to lead the league in strikeouts if everything clicks.

Mike Clevinger (ADP: 193.77) -- The Indians' recent track record of pitching development is impressive. Clevinger has cut his walk rate this season (from 4.4 BB/9 to 3.0), and while that shift has been accompanied by fewer strikeouts (from 10.1 K/9 to 8.1), it's a pair of adjustments that should make him a much better pitcher in the long run. His fastball is his most hittable offering, which could eventually lead the Indians have him throw it less (he's throwing it 53 percent of the time in 2018), since the rest of his arsenal has generated a whiff rate of 30 percent or better in each of the last two seasons (slider, changeup and curveball). He's a top-100 overall pick in a second-half draft, and his ADP should fall into a similar range heading toward 2019 -- with the potential for another price hike, if he brings his K/9 up closer to pre-2018 marks while maintaining the improved walk rate.

Ross Stripling (ADP: 495.84) -- Stripling made 49 appearances for the Dodgers last season, and 47 of those came in a relief role, but he was effective, quietly providing a 3.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 74.1 innings. If Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler are healthy, Stripling is the Dodgers' third-best starter, dropping a devastating curveball as the best offering in a solid four-pitch mix. Thanks to the constantly excellent work of @PitchingNinja (Rob Friedman) on Twitter, we see how Stripling's low-90s fastballs are so difficult for hitters to deal with.

Ross Stripling, Fastball & Curveball, Overlay. Why did you swing at that curveball in the dirt?!! That's why. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/OJfu5tIB23

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 11, 2018

Mike Foltynewicz (ADP 338.42) -- Of the top-30 pitchers in WAR over the past calendar year, Foltynewicz has the second-highest walk rate of the bunch (3.92 BB/9 -- Jhoulys Chacin: 3.96). It's somewhat concerning that he's issuing more walks than ever (3.79 BB/9, 10.3% BB%) in the midst of a breakout, but a few extra free passes have been accompanied by an elite strikeout rate (10.8 K/9, 29.4% K%) and the lowest home-run rate he's ever posted (0.76 HR/9, career 1.24 HR/9). Interestingly, there is only one projection system currently offering a sub-4.00 ERA for Foltynewicz the rest of the way (Derek Carty's THE BAT: 3.82). While league-wide hard-hit rates are on the rise, Foltynewicz has remained nearly flat since last season (33.5%, according to StatCast).

The success from Folty this season is backed by an increased use of his slider, the best pitch in his arsenal, which has generated whiffs at a 38.1% clip while holding opposing hitters to a .125 batting average against and .234 slugging percentage. Additionally, Foltynewicz is allowing less damage with his four-seam fastball, which has increased in velocity by a full mile per hour from 2017 (96.3 mph). While a 3.75ish ERA and a 1.25+ WHIP are a reasonable baseline to expect going forward, it's a big step forward overall for guy who will almost certainly be overdrafted in 2019 if he finds a way to keep his ratios close to their current 2018 marks (2.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).

Kyle Gibson (ADP: 435.52) -- Gibson was covered in my first Barometer in April. I put one foot into the pool with modest expectations.

Gibson will be on the short list of pitchers getting chased in the coming days as a potential pickup after tossing six hitless innings at Camden Yards against the Orioles on Saturday (he walked five and struck out six) and it's easy to write it off as an aberration since he's checked in with an ERA north of 5.00 and a WHIP higher than 1.50 in each of the last two seasons. A 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, with a good number of wins (13-14?) and strikeouts (150-160 if he gets to 190-plus innings) will be surprisingly useful in a large number of leagues.

Through 18 starts, Gibson has delivered a 3.57 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with *three* wins and 105 strikeouts in 107.2 innings (closer to 9.0 K/9 than the 7.0-7.5 range I was expecting). He's never missed bats at this clip before, but like Foltynewicz, he's never walked batters at a rate this high before (3.9 BB/9). With an 11.7% swinging-strike rate, the increase in strikeouts is supported to this point. Gibson is getting a career-high 54.2% whiff rate with his slider, which was already a very good pitch a year ago when he was getting whiffs at a 45.6% clip with it.

These are changes that started around this time last year, and his past calendar year marks: 3.92 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 8.4 K/9 largely support what is happening in 2018. If he remains in Minnesota after the trade deadline, he'll continue to reap the benefits of regular matchups against the Tigers, Royals and White Sox over the final two-plus months of the season.

Jordan Zimmermann (ADP: 492.26) -- Zimmermann appears to be useful again, and that might be an understatement. Although he's throwing his fastball with less velocity than ever (91.2 mph), he's wisely used that pitch less than ever (45.4%) while going very slider heavy (career-high 35.1% rate, career 22.5%). Both his four-seamer and his sinker are complete liabilities every time he throws them, so the adjustment is both necessary and a good one, though it may increase the risk of injury. He's always had great control (career 1.9 BB/9), so the low walk rate shouldn't be a surprise (1.6 BB/9 in 2018), but the return of strikeouts at a rate that resembles his previous career high set as a rookie (9.1 K/9 in 2009) is the huge surprise. The Tigers have him under contract through 2020 as part of the five-year, $110 million deal he signed after the 2015 season, but there may be a path out of a portion of the deal if they're willing to eat some of the remaining money, or take back a different bad contract in order to pick up a prospect or two. The swinging-strike rate (10.2%) does not support his current strikeout rate, but even if he levels off in the 7.5-8.0 K/9 range with above average control, Zimmermann may be in the early stages of a late-career resurgence -- a la CC Sabathia 2016-2018.

Relievers

Edwin Diaz (ADP: 88.80) -- Remember when Diaz very briefly lost his hold on the ninth-inning role in Seattle during the first half of 2017? He's joined the elite tier of closers -- the Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman cluster -- with a 13.8 K/9 over the past calendar year. Walks were a problem for Diaz last season (4.4 BB/9), but he's trimmed that mark to a 2.5 BB/9 through 47 innings this season, and he continues to overpower opposing hitters with a high-90s fastball that can touch triple digits, and a slider he's throwing nearly 40 percent of the time (avg velo: 89.0 mph). In keeper or dynasty leagues, you could argue that he's the most valuable long-term closer in the pool right now.

Blake Treinen (ADP: 171.00) -- Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson have been great bullpen additions for the Nats, who weren't getting anything close the same results from Treinen last summer when they sent him back to Oakland than his performance with the A's over the past calendar year. (The A's also picked up Jesus Luzardo in that trade, and at some point in the not-so-distant future, they might flip Treinen again for more prospects.). Over the past calendar year, Treinen is one four relievers to return three full wins above a replacement level player, according to fWAR (Edwin Diaz, Josh Hader and Chad Green are the others). In 2018, he's maintained an ERA and WHIP below 1.00, while becoming an elite closer from an affordable draft-day price.

At a glance, the pitch mix looks identical to what he was using in Washington, but the big difference for Treinen has been a significant increase in spin rate with his four-seam fastball (up from 2389 rpm to 2550 rpm in 2018), and as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wrote in May, Treinen's four-seamer is now working more effectively with his excellent sinker, keeping hitters guessing frequently and propelling his swinging-strike rate to a career-high 18.4%. He should be among the first 6-8 relievers off the board so long as he remains a situation where he's the primary source of saves.

Josh Hader (ADP: 307.71) -- Following an off-night Monday against the Marlins in which he served up back-to-back homers to Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson, Hader's strikeout rate for the season dipped just below 50 percent. He was very good in 2017, but he's been even better in 2018, carrying a 1.55 ERA and 16.5 K/9 over 46.1 innings. The Brewers were using him as their primary closer in a committee when Corey Knebel was on the disabled list earlier this season, but he's frequently tasked with getting more than three outs at a time as part of the bridge to the ninth inning in the current iteration of the Milwaukee bullpen. Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances may have been the first non-closer relievers to spark the use of staff fillers in mixed leagues in recent years, but Hader is leading the next wave to make that strategy the norm.