This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The final Tuesday slate before the All-Star break brings a lot of interesting twists.
The second tier of pitching is somewhat thin, which makes going heavy with bats at Coors Field somewhat difficult.
There are also a lot of unheralded arms to pick on, which creates some interesting pockets of value regardless of whether you want to fade Coors bats (Patrick Corbin vs. Tyler Anderson, o/u 11.0).
Consider...
- The Mets are turning to 28-year-old Drew Gagnon against the Phillies for his MLB debut.
- The Phillies are using prospect Enyel De Los Santos on the other side, perhaps giving life to some cheap Mets bats.
- Ian Kennedy is pitching against the Twins.
- Hector Velazquez and Yovani Gallardo are matching up at Fenway Park.
- Eric Lauer has dreadful splits against righties, and the Dodgers can stack several of them on the road at Petco.
- Sal Romano struggles mightily against left-handed bats, and he draws a very good Cleveland lineup at Progressive Field.
Generally, I don't write up the most expensive bats, since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
As noted over the last couple weeks, I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitchers
Justin Verlander, HOU vs. OAK ($13,300) -- The A's have been more productive than the Reds this season, but the Reds strike out less, which gives Verlander a little bit more upside in their respective matchups. Minute Maid Park is also a much more pitcher-friendly environment than Progressive Field, which also favors Verlander when comparing him to Bauer.
Trevor Bauer, CLE vs. CIN ($13,600) -- The extra $300 for Bauer compared to Verlander is negligible from a skills standpoint, and those who are thinking about paying the premium for their SP1 in tournaments might be tempted to go with Bauer at what figures to be a lower ownership rate between the two aces atop the board.
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY at BAL ($9,100) -- The Orioles are amazingly bad, and the only thing they might be able to do well Tuesday is take advantage of Tanaka's home-run lean. Still, the price here is very fair for a heavily favored road starter, especially one who is facing the team with the second-worst wRC+ split on the board Tuesday, while also boasting a top-five K%. I like Tanaka a little bit more in tournaments than in cash games, but I can't make a strong enough argument against him in the latter.
Rich Hill, LAD at SD ($8,600) -- Hill has a 26:4 K:BB over four starts since returning from the DL in June. The Padres continue to whiff a lot, and the win probability here is high with Eric Lauer on the mound for San Diego. Everything seems to be OK for Hill health-wise after he suffered a minor neck injury (stiffness) after he slid head-first into home plate against the Pirates in his last start Wednesday. I'm more comfortable with Hill than Tanaka as an SP1 for cash lineups, but like Tanaka, he's in play for all contest types in this matchup.
Miles Mikolas, STL at CHW ($9,900) -- Since recording a season-high nine strikeouts against the Royals in late May, Mikolas has a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his last eight starts, but he's fanned just 29 batters over 49 innings during that span (5.3 K/9). Mikolas falls into a strange middle ground, where even against a team that strikes out a lot like the White Sox, he doesn't seem to offer enough of a ceiling to use in tournaments, but pushing a price tag near $10K, he's not a particularly strong cash-game value either. Of the pitchers I wrote up for this slate, he's the one I'm least interested in.
Jose Quintana, CHC at SF ($8,300) -- The skills have been a mess over his last five starts -- he's walked a lot of batters, and he hasn't missed enough bats. Still, he's pitching in front of the league's best defense, in one of the most-pitcher friendly parks in the league. The win probability takes a hit with Johnny Cueto going for the Giants, but I think there's still enough to like with Quintana to think about him as a tournament option Tuesday.
Summary: Even with an interesting rookie available at a reasonably low price (Enyel De Los Santos, $7,500 at NYM), I can't imagine going outside of the top-six arms listed above to save on pitching. The Coors-heavy lineups will have to build around some combination that doesn't include Verlander or Bauer, and since all four sub $10K arms are on the road, I prefer going high-risk, high-reward chasing strikeouts with Tanaka and Hill against, even though Mikolas gets a bump to his weakest skill against the White Sox. In cash games, pairing one of Verlander or Bauer with Hill is my preferred starting point.
Catcher
J.R. Murphy, ARI at COL ($3,500) -- In addition to getting the usual bump that comes from a series in Colorado, Murphy draws a matchup Tuesday with lefty Tyler Anderson that is particularly favorable. With a .270/.324/.540 line against southpaws since the start of last season, Murphy will likely be the most heavily-owned catcher on the board at this price, but at least in cash games, it's difficult to steer away from him even with Anderson's recent success.
Mitch Garver, MIN vs. KC ($3,400) -- Garver has been carrying reverse splits in 2018, and while that is a surprise, it's an encouraging sign that he's handling right-handed pitching capably. Nevertheless, with a matchup against Royals starter Ian Kennedy (1.75 HR/9 vs. RHH since the start of 2016), he's a great alternative to Murphy for tournaments as long as he gets the nod ahead of backup Bobby Wilson.
Jorge Alfaro, PHI at NYM ($3,000) -- The Mets are starting 28-year-old Drew Gagnon on Tuesday -- a former Brewers prospect who will be making his debut after a long and winding road through the minors. All of the usual caveats apply, as Alfaro needs to get the starting nod of Andrew Knapp, and his swing-and-miss profile limits him to use in tournaments.
Austin Barnes, LAD at SD ($2,800) -- Assuming that he starts against San Diego lefty Eric Lauer, Barnes is the cheapest catcher I would consider on this slate, despite the disappointing first half he's put together following an apparent breakout in 2017 that included his takeover of the primary catcher job down the stretch and through the World Series. Barnes' .257/.364/.441 line against lefties since the start of last season offers up a nice floor at an affordable price.
First Base
Lucas Duda, KC at MIN ($3,600) -- Steering away from $5,900 Paul Goldschmidt might be a forced move if you're not willing to go with two cheap arms, which makes saving up at first base a priority. Duda continues to provide plenty of pop against right-handed pitching, and Twins starter Aaron Slegers offers very little in the way of the ability to miss bats -- 55 strikeouts in 83.2 innings at Triple-A Rochester, and 12 (!) homers allowed.
Justin Bour, MIA vs. MIL ($3,700) -- The song with Jhoulys Chacin remains the same. He's better than most people are giving him credit for, but if you're going to use a power bat against him, find a lefty with above-average thump at an affordable price. Josh Hader is likely unavailable Tuesday after a rare ineffective outing Monday, which gives Bour another little bump since the worst matchup he could draw from the Milwaukee bullpen isn't on the table.
Luis Valbuena, LAA vs. SEA ($3,300) -- Much like Mike Fiers, Mike Leake makes me look stupid on a regular basis. Valbuena is probably headed toward the bottom-third of the order again Tuesday night if he gets the start, thanks to the recent return of Shohei Ohtani to the DH role. In any case, Valbuena should be a low-owned option in tournaments capable of offering very cheap pop, and salary relief for lineups with D-backs and Rockies bats sprinkled in elsewhere.
Second Base
Jason Kipnis, CLE vs. CIN ($3,800) -- Much like teammate Yonder Alonso ($4,000), Kipnis offers a cheaper way to get exposure to the Cleveland lineup on a regular basis. Reds starter Sal Romano continues to struggle against lefties, and Progressive Field boosts left-handed power, which makes this a particularly enticing matchup for Kipnis. Since ending a homer draught that spanned most of May against the Astros back on May 26, Kipnis has put together a .282/.360/.508 line with seven homers, 19 RBI and three steals over his last 34 games entering play Tuesday.
Jonathan Villar, MIL at MIA ($3,500) -- The Brewers have enough versatile pieces on the roster that Villar isn't guaranteed to start on any particular day, but he's a low-priced option at a very thin position. Pablo Lopez is getting another start for the Marlins, and Villar has flashed the occasional double-digit game while utilizing his speed when he gets chances to start. He's not a cash-game option, but for tournaments, he's worth considering if manager Craig Counsell gives him a start Tuesday.
Third Base
Justin Turner, LAD at SD ($4,100) -- Another Tuesday, another great matchup against a lefty at a very fair price. Turner draws Eric Lauer, who as noted above, has ghastly splits against right-handed pitching.
Adrian Beltre, TEX at BOS ($3,600) -- Beltre has been mired in a mini-slump since having a root canal last week, but he's still significantly underpriced. Hector Velazquez has been surprisingly effective as a swingman for the Red Sox over the last two seasons (2.82 ERA), but he's done it while allowing plenty of contact (6.0 K/9), which is a recipe for disaster against a dangerous group of Rangers bats.
Colin Moran, PIT vs. WAS ($3,200) -- Moran, and first baseman Josh Bell, are viable cheap corner-infield pivots against Jeremy Hellickson on Tuesday. Hellickson's 1.58 HR/9 against left-handed hitters since the start of 2016 is the fourth-worst mark on the slate among the 30 starters pitching Tuesday.
Shortstop
Paul DeJong, STL at CHW ($4,100) -- While it appeared as though Dylan Covey was figuring things out in May, he's hit a very rough patch recently, and DeJong's ability to make frequent hard contact against a pitcher struggling to miss bats makes him an very strong play Tuesday night.
Andrelton Simmons, LAA vs. SEA ($3,800) -- Especially in cash games, the contact-heavy Simmons matches up very well against Mike Leake, who has posted an 18.5% K% against right-handed hitters since the start of 2016.
Jorge Polanco, MIN vs. KC ($3,800) -- Polanco is one of a few Twins with a good price in the favorable matchup against Royals right-hander Ian Kennedy.
Scott Kingery, PHI at NYM ($3,100) -- For punt considerations in tournaments, Kingery draws career minor-leaguer Drew Gagnon in his MLB debut Tuesday.
Outfield
Nomar Mazara, TEX at BOS ($3,800) -- While Fenway Park is often a difficult place for left-handed power hitters to go yard, the weather conditions in Tuesday's forecast include game-time temperatures near 90 degrees with winds blowing out. Mazara has quietly cooled off in recent weeks, but he's another strong play against Hector Velazquez, whether it's as a one-off, mini, or full stack.
Marcell Ozuna, STL at CHW ($3,500) -- I don't know what his problem is to this point, and he's probably been recommended because of discounting pricing more than any player in the pool this season, but if you can't comfortably play him against Dylan Covey at this price, it might be time to latch on to some other 2018 disappointment at a deflated price after the All-Star break. If you're sick of trying to get big games out of Ozuna, Nick Williams ($3,600) against Drew Gagnon is a nice pivot.
Kole Calhoun, LAA vs. SEA ($2,900) -- Calhoun has been leading off against right-handed pitching recently, which makes him a discounted option for cash games against Seattle's Mike Leake. Calhoun has posted three 20-point games since returning from the DL last month, but he's cooled off with an overall .242/.290/.484 line during that span.
