NBA Draft Chat: Making Sense Of The Top Five

NBA Draft Chat: Making Sense Of The Top Five

This article is part of our NBA Draft Chat series.

This is the first in a series of NBA Draft Chats over the next few weeks leading up to the big night on June 25. Feel free to submit questions or comments below, or get at the guys on Twitter.

Nick Whalen (@wha1en): I want to start by taking a look at James' most recent mock draft, which went live on the site at the end of last week. You projected Jahlil Okafor to the Timberwolves. What was the reasoning behind that?

James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson): Well, I had heard that they like him quite a bit. He's not No. 1 on my board, and he may not even be No. 2 or No. 3. He just seems like a T-Wolves guy.

Josh Lloyd (@redrock_bball): I've heard that about Minnesota as well, but who knows what is a smokescreen or what isn't.

Whalen: Can he play alongside Nikola Pekovic? It seems like Karl Towns might be the better fit there, defensively.

Anderson: I would be trying to find a guy who can play along Gorgui Dieng.

Lloyd: I really don't see Pekovic as having a viable career anymore. I think he's done. If he plays next season in a meaningful capacity, it'll be as a 20 minute a night backup.

Anderson: Okafor + Dieng seems more viable than Towns + Pek. Granted, Towns + Dieng might be the most viable.

Whalen: The injuries certainly haven't helped. Three years and about $36M would be tough to move, which you'd imagine they'd be open to doing if there was any interest.

Lloyd: I can see the rationale behind that Towns + Dieng combo. I think Pekovic's contract is virtually impossible to move. He'll be there, but I don't think he'll have the capacity to be a starter, even if Minnesota wanted him to be.

Whalen: You mentioned, James, in your write-up about the T-Wolves' pick that if you had the choice you'd actually go with Justice Winslow. Do you think there's any chance Minnesota stays away from one of the two elite big men?

Anderson: No, and I don't think the Lakers would either. That said, I could make a case that Winslow and Russell are the two best prospects on the board, given the direction the game is heading.

Lloyd: What percentage chance is there that Okafor and Towns don't go one-two? I'd say five percent.

Anderson: That sounds about right. It would take a ridiculous workout from Russell or Winslow and for Towns and/or Okafor to no-show in their workouts with Minnesota. I think there's a zero percent chance the Lakers pass on a big man.

Whalen: There's still that belief that if a franchise center is available, you have to take him, even if the league is trending toward teams dominated by elite wing play.

Anderson: So it seems clear to me that Towns, Winslow, Okafor and Russell are the top four guys in this draft in some order – do you guys agree with that?

Lloyd: I think Mudiay should be in there as well. I could see Winslow slipping down to five or six very easily. But I agree that the other three are the clear top three to me.

Whalen: He didn't blow teams away with his combine measurable; came in a bit undersized

Anderson: I wasn't saying who will go top-4, but who do you guys think should go top-4.

Whalen: Towns, Winslow, Okafor -- Russell/Mudiay are basically interchangeable to me right now.

Lloyd: It's hard to judge Mudiay, but I think he should go in the top-4. Granted, he can't shoot yet, but he's not a complete lost cause in that area.

Anderson: Yeah, from what I've seen of Mudiay I like him quite a bit. I worry about makeup though with anyone who went to Prime Prep.

Whalen: What do you like most about him? Or what gives him the edge over Russell?

Lloyd: I don't think he has an edge over Russell. I'd take Russell in almost every situation, but Mudiay's explosiveness is very intriguing.

Anderson: Russell is the rare point guard prospect that I think you can argue for with a top-3 pick. Mudiay isn't quite in that class for me.

Lloyd: I agree with that. To me, the top three is more clear-cut than the top four.

Whalen: You mentioned it briefly, James, but how much does Mudiay's background bother you, if at all? Not just the Prime Prep fiasco, but also playing overseas, rather than the traditional year of college. Do you think that will give some teams pause?

Lloyd: I don't think the international route will be much of a hindrance to NBA teams. It probably appears more of an issue to people outside of the scouting inner sanctums.

Anderson: Mudiay and Towns are the two guys who should go top-5 where I have minor makeup concerns

Whalen: Maturity an issue for Towns?

Anderson: Yeah, maturity with Towns. And he completely no-showed for a game in the tournament – like, blatantly no-showed (one point, four fouls in 13 minutes vs. West Virginia).

Whalen: That's true. Teams have to understand he's not going to have an Anthony Davis-like impact right away, no matter where he ends up.

Anderson: Mudiay I just don't know enough to think there should be no concerns there

Lloyd: People will always have unrealistic expectations for the number one pick, regardless of who it is. If we don't include Mudiay as an international player, who do you like more: Mario Hezonja or Kristaps Porzingis?

Whalen: Admittedly, I'm still doing my homework on the two big European prospects. From most of what I've read, scouts like Porzingis just a bit more. He's drawn comparisons to Bargs, though, so is that the ultimate red flag?

Lloyd: There are also some loose Dirk comparisons, so maybe that balances it out. He's extremely thin and not strong enough at this point, but he has a ton of potential. I like him more than Hezonja. I've actually seen people talking Hezonja over Winslow, which seems like folly to me. Do you agree?

Whalen: As a Bucks guy, I've learned my lesson with foreign big men (shoutout to Yi), so I'm always a little bit skeptical. Taking Hezonja over Winslow would be a mistake. And that's not a knock on Hezonja, as much as it is an endorsement for Winslow. I think he has as good a chance as anyone to be the best player in the draft, and if a team like Sacramento or Denver has the chance to get him at 6 or 7 it would be a huge blunder not to jump at the opportunity.

Lloyd: I would be taking him if I was Orlando at five. Winslow, that is. Hezonja to Denver seems perfect to me.

Whalen: Denver does like the foreigners. But the Magic are a team I actually wanted to talk about more in-depth. They're seemingly set in the backcourt with Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton. So what happens if one or both of Russell/Mudiay are on the board at No. 5. Would they really pass on that kind of talent?

Lloyd: I think they'd more likely pass on Mudiay. Adding a third non-shooter to Oladipo and Payton doesn't make a lot of sense, whereas they could conceivably run out lineups of Russell/Oladipo/Payton, at times.

Lloyd: I'm picking Oladipo as an All-Star next season from now.

Whalen: Oladipo is definitely a guy who can make that next step. And there should be some open spots on that All-Star team. Atlanta sure as hell isn't getting four next year.

Anderson: Oladipo is a lot like Westbrook where you think he's a better defender than he actually is. Obviously that's something he can improve upon.

Whalen: He's a bit of a gambler on that end.

Lloyd: First non-freshman/international player off the board? Kaminsky or Cauley-Stein?

Anderson: Willie Cauley-Stein, but I'd be tempted to take Kaminsky.

Whalen: I think WCS goes ahead of Kaminsky, for sure.

Whalen: Again, it's that defensive potential teams will fall in love with.

Lloyd: Willie Trill for me as well.

Whalen: Where do you think is the best fit for him, team-wise? I think Miami would be very interesting.

Lloyd: I agree with that. The Knicks obviously need an interior defender, but I doubt they take him that high. Cauley-Stein and Boogie would be intriguing in Sacramento, as well.

Anderson: How about Denver for WCS?

Whalen: Denver is intriguing because that roster could look so much different heading into next season than it does right now in late-May.

Lloyd: I don't want to envision a situation that impacts my boy Jusuf Nurkic, but he could easily fit there. Although, Denver is crying out for a two guard I think.

Anderson: So, am I the high man on Tyus Jones?

Whalen: Haha, I had "Tyus Jones (James)" written in my notes knowing this would come up. I know you're definitely higher on him than me.

Lloyd: I like him a lot, but I think it'll be hard for him to sneak into the lottery, unless OKC picks him. Where do you have him, James?

Anderson: Well, he's obviously higher on my big board than in my mock drafts. I'd consider taking him on the edge of the top-10. I agree about him likely falling outside the lottery in terms of the real draft.

Whalen: Most mocks have him in the mid-to-late first. What makes you so high on him?

Lloyd: Houston at 18 seems perfect.

Anderson: I think he has basically a flawless offensive game. His D is an issue, though.

Lloyd: Are you worried about his size?

Whalen: I was actually really impressed with his ability to draw fouls at his size.

Whalen: But I am concerned, yes. I really can't ever see him developing into a top-15 NBA point guard.

Anderson: I think he'll enter the league as a top-5 passer and top-10 shooter at the position

Lloyd: Top 5 passer is a huge call!

Whalen: That's a ridiculous call. Chances are Jones isn't going to a team where he's going to be able to step in as a starter.

Anderson: I don't think top-5 passer is ridiculous. He's been the best passer at his level for his entire life.

Whalen: Right, but to say he'll immediately step in as one of the five best point guard passers in the NBA is bold, to say the least.

Lloyd: Jones, Cameron Payne or Jerian Grant?

Anderson: Jones

Lloyd: I tend to agree about Jones being the best of those three.

Whalen: I've been high on Grant all year, but he'll be 23 by the time next season starts.

Lloyd: Sam Dekker - 48% from three in the tournament, 38% for the season. Will teams buy into that hot shooting?

Whalen: I think teams will know better than to only look at a six or seven-game sample size, but there's no question Dekker made himself some serious money in the tournament. As someone who watched most of Wisconsin's game this year, I'm a little concerned that his reputation nationally may be a little bit better than it is for people who watched him struggle, at times, against inferior competition. Of course, teams will do their homework on things like that. But I think Dekker has a ways to go from a consistency standpoint.

Lloyd: That's fair, but I still think he goes in the lottery.

Whalen: Alright, we're running a little short on time this morning so we're going to have to cut it off here. Great stuff, guys. We'll get together for another one later this week.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Nick Whalen
Now in his 10th year with the company, Nick is RotoWire's Senior Media Analyst, a position he took on after several years as the Head of Basketball Content. A multi-time FSGA and FSWA award winner, Nick co-hosts RotoWire's flagship show on Sirius XM Fantasy alongside Jeff Erickson, as well as The RotoWire NBA Show on Sirius XM NBA with Alex Barutha. He also co-hosts RotoWire's Football and Basketball podcasts. You can catch Nick's NBA and NFL analysis on VSiN and DraftKings, as well as RotoWire's various social and video channels. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @wha1en.
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