NBA Draft Kit: Power Forward Tiers

NBA Draft Kit: Power Forward Tiers

This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.

Over the course of the next week, RotoWire will roll out its annual Tiers series, grouping the fantasy-relevant players at each position by projected value. We'll release a position each day, beginning Monday with Centers and wrapping up with Point Guards on Friday.

READ: Center Tiers
READ: Small Forward Tiers
READ: Shooting Guard Tiers
READ: Point Guard Tiers

The power forward position has gained increased attention over the past few seasons, beginning with the true emergence of the "stretch four" -- a big who can step out behind the arc and knock down threes.

In tandem with increased three-point shooting, pace of play also continues to increase in the NBA, with teams like the Warriors (115.9 PPG), Rockets (115.3 PPG), and Nuggets (111.7 PPG) pushing the envelope last season. For reference, just as recently as the 2013-14 season, the top scoring team (the Clippers) posted 107.9 PPG.

However, we've reached the point where it becomes an oddity if a team's power forward can't shoot threes at a respectable clip. It's expected. There's nearly an excess of power forwards drilling a few threes en route to 14-16 points per game while adding 5-7 rebounds per game. To some extent, when trying to choose between those players in fantasy, you're splitting hairs. Their role on the team and age often become the deciding factors.

For someone to be a true standout at the position, they have to bring something else to the table. Namely: rebounding, defense, and playmaking.

Tier I: The Stars

Over the course of the next week, RotoWire will roll out its annual Tiers series, grouping the fantasy-relevant players at each position by projected value. We'll release a position each day, beginning Monday with Centers and wrapping up with Point Guards on Friday.

READ: Center Tiers
READ: Small Forward Tiers
READ: Shooting Guard Tiers
READ: Point Guard Tiers

The power forward position has gained increased attention over the past few seasons, beginning with the true emergence of the "stretch four" -- a big who can step out behind the arc and knock down threes.

In tandem with increased three-point shooting, pace of play also continues to increase in the NBA, with teams like the Warriors (115.9 PPG), Rockets (115.3 PPG), and Nuggets (111.7 PPG) pushing the envelope last season. For reference, just as recently as the 2013-14 season, the top scoring team (the Clippers) posted 107.9 PPG.

However, we've reached the point where it becomes an oddity if a team's power forward can't shoot threes at a respectable clip. It's expected. There's nearly an excess of power forwards drilling a few threes en route to 14-16 points per game while adding 5-7 rebounds per game. To some extent, when trying to choose between those players in fantasy, you're splitting hairs. Their role on the team and age often become the deciding factors.

For someone to be a true standout at the position, they have to bring something else to the table. Namely: rebounding, defense, and playmaking.

Tier I: The Stars

These are the difference-makers – players you should consider taking with your first or second pick in a fantasy draft. Their roles may change or may have changed, but they're All-Star level talents, regardless of situation.

Anthony Davis, Pelicans
Few doubts remain about Davis' status as arguably the best power forward in the NBA, though concerns about his durability are valid when considering his fantasy stock. The 2016-17 campaign was his healthiest season yet, but he still appeared in just 75 contests. Through his first four NBA seasons, Davis averaged 65 games played per year.

That said, he posted 28.0 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 2.1 assists and 1.3 steals across 36.1 minutes per game last season, a statline nearly impossible to pass up if he falls out of the top five picks, even if you expect him to miss 20 games. Considering Davis is still just 24 years old heading into next season, he could still be far from reaching his absolute ceiling.

There aren't too many things Davis can realistically improve upon, but he's a sub-par three-point shooter, going just 40-for-134 (29.9 percent) from deep last season. While there's undoubtedly room for improvement considering his shooting form is solid, knocking him for his below average three-point shooting when he's scoring a hair under 30 PPG seems like nitpicking to some extent.

Blake Griffin, Clippers
Like Davis, it's important to at least take note of Griffin's injury history, as he missed all of what was supposed to be his rookie season with a torn ACL, and has averaged just 54.3 games over the past three seasons. That said, a significant chunk of the games he missed during the 2015-16 season were the result of a hand injury suffered during a fight with a team equipment manager, rather than something that happened in a basketball context.

Griffin won't help your fantasy team as a defender, as he averaged a combined 1.3 steals and blocks last season. The presence of DeAndre Jordan at center reduces Griffin's presence on the glass, though he still averaged a solid 8.1 boards per game. Where Griffin separates himself from other power forwards is his ability to run an offense, a skill that will be on display more often in the wake of Chris Paul's departure. Since the 2014-15 campaign, Griffin has handed out 5.1 assists to go with 21.7 points per game.

In Paul's absence, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Griffin doesn't hand out more assists.. Assists are extremely difficult to come by from the power forward slot, so drafting Griffin early makes the need for an elite point guard less pronounced, especially in categorical formats.

He's also been slowly working on his range, taking the most per-game threes (1.9) of his career last season, and hitting them at a respectable 33.6 percent clip. Drafting Griffin with the expectation that he'll be drilling threes left and right is probably misguided, but it's an overlooked dynamic to his fantasy value.

Draymond Green, Warriors
Green seemed to struggle with his confidence as a scorer after the addition of Kevin Durant last season. His effective field-goal percentage dropped by seven points and his scoring took a dip by nearly two points per game. Durant's presence as a rebounder also brought Green's rebounds down from 9.5 to 7.9 per game.

Growing pains aside, Green still managed to win Defensive Player of the Year, posting 2.0 steals and 1.4 blocks per game.

While it's tough to fully evaluate Green's fantasy value due to his uniqueness as a player, he's undoubtedly the best passing power forward out there (7.0 APG) and the NBA's most versatile defender. It seems doubtful that he'll continue to regress as a scorer heading into next season, but he'll still be the fourth, and sometimes fifth, option on offense.

Kevin Love, Cavaliers
Love had his best season as a member of the Cavaliers last season and finally looked comfortable in his role. He averaged a double-double for the first time since leaving Minnesota, posting 19.0 points and 11.1 rebounds per game.

While he won't help a fantasy team much as a passer (1.9 APG) or defender (1.3 combined steals and blocks per game), his elite rebounding and high-volume three-point shooting (37.3 percent on 6.5 attempts per game) makes him someone to target in fantasy.

Kristaps Porzingis, Knicks
At 22 years old heading into next season, Porzingis has already demonstrated tremendous upside. Last season, he posted 18.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 assists across 32.8 minutes per game. He also shot 45.0 percent from the field and drilled 1.7 threes per game at a 35.7 percent clip.

At a towering 7'3", Porzingis possesses not only the upside to swat shots at an elite level, but also shoot over almost any defender's arms. While he has yet to be truly dominant in one aspect of his game, he's one of the few young players who already has an All-Star floor and a superstar ceiling.

Porzingis, like Kevin Love, may also end up benefiting from an unhappy teammate potentially being dealt. If Carmelo Anthony is traded, Porzingis would likely step into a larger role offensively, providing a preview of his future as a featured weapon.

Paul Millsap, Nuggets
Millsap, in joining the Nuggets this past offseason, has lined himself up for perhaps the best statistical season of his career. Denver was third in scoring and seventh in pace last season, an upgrade from the Hawks, who ranked 22nd and 10th, respectively. Even if Millsap makes no strides in his game, his production could inherently rise.

In moving to Denver, he also avoids playing with a lane-clogging center in Dwight Howard. Two season ago, more than 36 percent of Millsap's field goal attempts came from within three feet of the rim. That number sunk to 25.4 percent last season.

Playing alongside Nikola Jokic -- the anti-Dwight -- spacing should no longer be an issue. Jokic was a 32.4 percent three-point shooter on 1.9 attempts per game last season. While Millsap has demonstrated that he's capable of spacing the floor and firing threes, it's not his bread-and-butter. Still, he's someone defenders have to respect out to 23 feet.

Other players who may be position-eligible:Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins, Myles Turner, Carmelo Anthony

Tier II: The Established Mid-Tier

This group of players are established in their roles and likely won't show much statistical flux from last season, but still make for nice early-to-middle round pick-ups, depending on need and format. In short: the high-floor, low-ceiling group.

LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs
Despite rumors that the Spurs may have been looking to offload Aldridge due to his questionable fit on the team, he's too good to bench for extended periods, and management seems more or less committed to the current group of players.

Aldridge tallied 17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.2 blocks across 32.4 minutes per game last season. He also made 47.7 percent of his shots from the field and went 23-of-56 (41.1 percent) from beyond the arc.

Serge Ibaka, Thunder
Ibaka was traded in the middle of last season from the Magic to the Raptors, though his role remained relatively constant. After the trade, Ibaka averaged 14.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks across 31.0 minutes while shooting 45.9 percent from the field and hitting 1.8 threes per game.

It's possible he'll see more minutes at center next season given his ability to space the floor, but considering the high usage of both DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, a switch to center likely wouldn't move the needle much in terms of his fantasy value.

Tobias Harris, Pistons
Harris has been essentially coasting since he became a full-time starter back in 2014-15. If the past few years are any indication, Harris may be very close to his ceiling as a fantasy player.

Over the past three campaigns, he's averaged 15.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.9 assists while shooting 47.2 percent from the field and drilling 1.2 threes per game at a 34.8 percent clip. The numbers aren't flashy, but he's consistent. With the departure of Marcus Morris, Harris will likely be relied upon for a larger share of the frontcourt scoring.

Zach Randolph, Kings
Randolph signed a two-year, $24 million contract with the Kings over the summer – his first change of scenery since joining the Grizzlies back in 2009.

Randolph may present the most risk out of anyone in this category due to his age (36) and shift away from Memphis, but his workload shouldn't see too much of a drop-off considering he's far and away the most experienced frontcourt option. Last season, Randolph transitioned to a bench role and averaged 14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists while shooting 44.9 percent from the field and 21-of-94 (22.3 percent) from deep.

Derrick Favors, Jazz
Favors' injury history must be taken into account before considering him on draft day, as he's averaged just 68.4 games played per season throughout his career. He missed 32 games last season, mostly due to knee issues.

Even so, when he's healthy, Favors has flashed a borderline-All-Star-caliber ceiling. From the 2013-14 season through the 2015-16 season, Favors averaged 15.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 1.4 assists and 1.0 steal across 30.9 minutes per game. He also shot 52.1 percent from the field over that span.

With the departure of Gordon Hayward, Favors should see an increased role within the Jazz's offense. But betting on him to play more than 70 games is a risky proposition.

Honorable mention:Markieff Morris, Dirk Nowitzki

Other players who may be position-eligible:Nerlens Noel

Tier III: The Up-and-Comers

This group of players have shown legitimate potential to jump into, or past, those in the mid-tier. It's largely a collection of young talent and/or those with expanding roles. There's undoubtedly risk within this pool, but it looks to be trending upwards on the whole.

Dario Saric, 76ers
While Saric's rookie numbers were solid, his post-All-Star break numbers may provide better insight into his potential. After the break, he recorded 17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 30.4 minutes per game. He also shot 43.2 percent from the field and 28.1 percent from three. His lack of efficiency leaves something to be desired, but he arguably makes up for it with his work on the glass and decent assist total for a wing.

Though the 76ers went ahead and signed veteran power forward/center Amir Johnson over the summer, as well as adding a healthy Ben Simmons to the fold, Saric will still be a fixture in the rotation.

Aaron Gordon, Magic
Gordon is another player whose role changed significant post-All-Star break, as the Magic trading Serge Ibaka allowed Gordon to slide up from small forward to power forward, helping his rebounding and securing more touches on offense.

After the break, Gordon averaged 16.4 points, 6.2 boards and 1.7 assists across 31.2 minutes per game and shot 50.3 percent from the field. While his outside shooting is still a work in progress, he still manages to score due to his above-average dribbling ability at the position and high-flying athleticism.

The Magic didn't make too many waves during the offseason, so expecting Gordon to get a similar share of the workload and improve, even if just slightly, on an individual level seems fair. However, it remains to be seen how the arrival of No. 6 overall pick Jonathan Isaac will affect Gordon's role.

Julius Randle, Lakers
While Randle's rebounding dropped from 10.2 to 8.6 per game last season, he raised his assists from 1.8 to 3.6 per game. He also bumped up his his field-goal percentage from 42.9 to 48.8 and points from 11.3 to 13.2 per game.

His emergence as a passer has certainly boosted his fantasy value, though it's tough to tell how often he'll be in a playmaking role heading into next season given the arrival of Lonzo Ball.

The Lakers also acquired borderline All-Star caliber center Brook Lopez during the summer, though that shouldn't affect Randle's rebounding too much, as Lopez snagged just 5.4 boards per game last season.

JaMychal Green, Grizzlies
Despite starting 75 of 77 games, Green put up just 8.9 points across 27.3 minutes per game, to go with 7.1 rebounds . While he was a low-volume scorer last season, he was efficient, shooting 50.0 percent from the field and going 55-for-145 (37.9 percent) from beyond the arc.

This summer, the Grizzlies lost Zach Randolph, a significant scoring presence off the bench. With Green showing flashes of scoring talent last season, the team may look towards him to hold a larger role in the offense during the upcoming season.

Honorable mentions:Marcus Morris, James Johnson, Marvin Williams

Tier IV: The Interchangeables

This group shouldn't be considered until the back end of most drafts. They are often one-dimensional, low usage players and can likely be swapped for one another without much impact.

Thaddeus Young, Pacers
Young saw his production take a dip last season after leaving the Nets. Upon joining the Pacers – who featured the likes of Paul George, Jeff Teague and Myles Turner – Young's points per game dropped from 15.1 to 11.0 and his rebounds per game dropped from 9.0 to 6.1, despite playing only 2.8 fewer minutes per game.

It's important to note, however, that the Pacers have replaced Teague and George with a much less talented crew. As a result, Young projects to see more touches on the offensive side of the ball, which should result in his numbers seeing a slight uptick compared to last season.

He's far from an elite fantasy option, but the 6'8" forward accumulated seven double-doubles last season, averaged an impressive 1.5 steals per game, and will probably see an increased role within a secure workload.

Al-Farouq Aminu, Trail Blazers
Aminu took a step back in the scoring department last season, seeing his effective field-goal percentage drop from 50.3 to 46.8 and his points per game sink from 10.2 to 8.7. However, he improved on the glass, raising his rebounds from 6.1 to 7.4 per game.

He's largely a catch-and-shoot player and doesn't do much distributing (1.6 assists per game), but he holds his own defensively, posting a combined 1.7 steals and blocks per game.

Jon Leuer, Pistons
Leuer saw the biggest workload of his career last season, averaging 25.9 minutes per game and starting in 34 of 75 games played. He posted a career-high 10.2 points while chipping in 5.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. His three-point percentage of 29.3 was abnormally low, considering he shot 37.5 percent from deep for his career prior to last season. So, it feels rather safe to assume last season was an outlier.

Leuer is also a candidate to see increased run heading into next season with the departure of forward Marcus Morris to Boston, though Leuer's subpar defense may put a ceiling on his workload. Expecting a breakout campaign is probably misguided, but there's a realistic chance he sees 30 minute per game, which is hard to ignore from a fantasy perspective.

Ersan Ilyasova, Hawks
Ilyasova took the floor for three teams last season, playing three games for the Thunder, 53 games for the 76ers, and then 26 games for the Hawks. On the season, he posted 13.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.7 assists across 26.1 minutes per game. He also shot 43.1 percent from the field and made 1.7 threes per outing at a 35.3 percent clip.

While those numbers are far from eye-popping, he could be a candidate for a significant bump in touches this season. With the Hawks losing both Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard with no legitimate replacements, Ilyasova will likely have to be featured in the offense, even if just as a higher-volume stretch-four. The team did spend a first-round pick on promising forward John Collins, but he's still a raw talent.

Honorable mentions:Ryan Anderson, Trevor Booker, Taj Gibson, Gorgui Dieng

READ MORE:
2017-18 Center Tiers
2017-18 Small Forward Tiers
2017-18 Shooting Guard Tiers
2017-18 Point Guard Tiers


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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Barutha
Alex is RotoWire's Chief NBA Editor. He writes articles about daily fantasy, year-long fantasy and sports betting. You can hear him on the RotoWire NBA Podcast, Sirius XM, VSiN and other platforms. He firmly believes Robert Covington is the most underrated fantasy player of the past decade.
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