This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
When you have a 10-game slate like the one we have on Friday, I like to get a couple of games out of the picture immediately so we can instead focus on other opportunities. And since we're in late March, those opportunities are going to center around teams that have something to play for. With 'garbage' games, lots of funny lineup alterations happen and players that never get minutes see a lot of time, and vice-versa. No amount of statistical analysis can account for these changes, so in my opinion, its best to avoid them.
Of course, every game on this slate has a team in the playoff hunt, but who is the most vulnerable? Obviously, the Nuggets come to mind, and they face the Wizards in what should prove to be a tough away game. The O/U is a respectable 219.5 and I have no problem going with any of the usual suspects on either team, but I'll streamline my picks below.
The Clippers are in must-win territory, and they'll face a solid change in an away game against the Pacers. The advantage of both games is that they are early, so we'll know all we need to know before tip-off. I think the 219.5 line will fall to the Over in this one, as the Clippers will refuse to go away in a game where Indiana is a 2.5-point favorite.
So where are our spend-up players on Wednesday? A noticeable absence is Giannis Antetokounmpo, and while the top eight in the East are set, the Bucks wouldn't mind jumping up a spot or two, and there's value to be had in this game as a few players will be counted on to adsorb Giannis' output. I think Eric Bledsoe ($8,000) and Khris Middleton ($8,300) are the primary beneficiaries, but Jabari Parker ($6,400) is the cheapest and most intriguing pick of the trio.
LeBron James will be in Phoenix to play the Suns, and I haven't listed his salary because I can't find a good reason to play him. Sure, he's been a chalk play on a nightly basis, but are the Suns really going to make this close? I doubt it, and if that's the case, will James really need to be on the court? That's all you need to consider.
Russell Westbrook ($11,100) is far more attractive against a Miami squad that is safely in the playoffs but are easily one of the worst playoff-eligible defenses around, and as a result I like Westbrook as well as Paul George ($7,600) if you want a cheaper option.
Finally, it looks like Stephen Curry ($10,600) will suit up on Friday, but I wouldn't expect a monster game against the Hawks, though it's entirely possible they will attempt to lean on him with a depleted lineup. It carries some risk as a blowout, but Curry might be worth a look in some GPP lineups.
I'll now highlight three players at each position along with a small list that carries equal weight in my predictions. If I've listed any player with a salary designation above, they should also be considered as favorable plays. Where possible, I will include one cheap value target at each position.
GUARDS
Lou Williams, LAC at IND ($7,200): I'll side right past guys like Oladipo and Beal and go for a critical, do-or-die game, and no one represents the potential for angina-inducing, explosive production like Sweet Lou. The Clippers will need that kind of night from him if they hope to win, and you know Williams wants in so he can continue to prove why he should have been an All-Star. There's risk-reward here, of course, but if you're a believer in high drama as a positive indicator for production, look no further.
Ricky Rubio, UTA at SA ($6,700): I'm no fan of the pace slow-down against the Spurs, but I think the Jazz could be the exception on Friday, and Rubio has loved playing San Antonio. He's lit up the Spurs for an average of 43.9 DKFP this season and if you caught any of the Utah game last night, you know he's playing some clutch ball right now. Again, I'm looking for explosiveness on this slate, and I think Rubio's got it.
Devin Harris, DEN at WAS ($4,000): How low can we go? This might look like a quizzical pick, but Harris has vaulted into relevancy with Gary Harris out, and with little competition behind him Harris has played well in the second unit. Also, the Nuggets will be a little fatigued and Harris seems like the perfect candidate to lean on when guys like Jamal Murray and Will Barton need time off the court.
Other guards to consider: Jamal Murray, DEN at WAS ($6,900); Darren Collison, IND vs. LAC ($5,800); Nick Young, GS vs. ATL ($4,600)
FORWARDS
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA vs. UTA ($8,600): Three straight games with 50 or more DKFP is really all you need to justify a start here, but the Spurs know how to play at clutch time and they'll be doing all they can to hold on to a playoff spot, and Aldridge is their primary weapon. Despite the slow pace, the playoff ramifications for both teams is the difference-maker.
Will Barton, DEN at WAS ($6,800): Some may see a bad history versus the Wizards and pass him over, but that game was in October. It's a whole different ball game now – Barton is starting and the Nuggets need this win. I'm playing the scenario more than the player, but I think both perspectives point to a reliable total for Barton.
Andre Iguodala, GS vs. ATL ($4,700): He'll fill in for Durant again on Friday, and I think he'll see a full complement of minutes and easily hit value at an ideal price, as we'll need guys like this to get our mid-level players. I think an argument could also be made for Kevon Looney ($4,100) or Jordan Bell ($4,200), but Iguodala will have the more reliable floor in this one.
Other forwards to consider: Kevin Love, CLE vs. PHO ($7,700); Otto Porter, Jr., WAS vs. DEN ($6,600); Dewayne Dedmon, ATL at GS ($5,900)
CENTERS
DeAndre Jordan, LAC at IND ($8,400): I can already tell that paying up for a center won't be a priority on this slate and I slide past guys like Towns for that reason. By all means, if you can afford more go for it, but I like Jordan at this price based on the need-to-win implications afoot for the Clippers. Jordan's put together two good games and I like his matchup against Myles Turner.
Steven Adams, OKC vs. MIA ($6,500): For the price, I think Adams might be one of the best values on the slate and I'll be chalking him in both cash and GPPs. Without Hassan Whiteside the Heat have a difficult time defending inside and I'll look for Adams to be the workhorse for the Thunder.
Derrick Favors, UTA at SA ($5,100): Favors actually outrebounded Rudy Gobert in their last game and it seems like his knee isn't giving him any problems right now. True, he's seen his production drop off since Rudy's return, but I think he's a nice contrarian pick in GPPs.
