This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
One should expect a bit of volatility in Saturday's six-game slate because a good number of the available teams have nothing to play for, which can sometimes produce some unexpected totals that defy statistical analysis. I'm a firm believer that at this point in the season, you'll see better totals from teams that are making a concerted push for the playoffs.
Even the one game with two playoff contenders has its own set of drawbacks. Even though it has a 226.5 line, both James Harden and Chris Paul are questionable to play and might take the night off against the Pelicans. As for New Orleans, Anthony Davis hasn't had much success against the Rockets, so what initially looks like a good game to target actually isn't all it's cracked up to be. I do think Rajon Rondo ($25) has a decent chance to run good in this one, and even if Harden plays it looks like Eric Gordon ($17) could be in line for increased time again on Saturday if Paul's hamstring issue is as serious as it sounds.
I have a bit more confidence in the earliest game on the slate, where Joel Embiid ($42) is coming in at a reasonable price against the Timberwolves. Embiid put up 56 YFP on Minnesota in December, and the overall game script hasn't changed all that much. Karl-Anthony Towns ($43) had an equally impressive showing with 61 YFP in that game, and there are other plays on both sides of this matchup that are worth considering.
If I provided a salary designation for a player above, I think they are favorable plays to target. I'll highlight two more players at each position along with a small list of other targets for each spot. When possible, I'll try to make one of the highlighted players a lower-cost value pick.
GUARD
Kemba Walker, CHA at DAL ($34): Walker has averaged a blistering 51.1 YFP the last three games, and this matchup against Dallas could end up going as well for the Hornets as the 61-point beat down they gave the Grizzlies. They've won three of their last five by relying on Walker's playmaking skills. With Dennis Smith returning from injury, look for Walker to have little trouble.
Cameron Payne, CHI at DET ($15): Payne still comes in at a reasonable price while he steps in for Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine, and even though the Pistons are huge favorites, I think they'll have more success in stifling Chicago's frontcourt than they will in neutralizing the Bulls' perimeter game. Payne's put up enough production to expect a value-beating total.
Other guards to consider: Ben Simmons, PHI vs. MIN ($39), Reggie Bullock, DET vs. CHI ($11), Troy Daniels, PHO at ORL ($10).
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Guard to Avoid:
Jeff Teague, MIN at PHI ($28): Teague emerges as a fade due in large part to his history against the Sixers backcourt this season. While his totals have been respectable, they aren't what you need to achieve at this price point. With a wide variety of other options in this range, there's no need to settle for this kind of volatility.
FORWARD
Aaron Gordon, ORL vs. PHO ($30): As long as his minutes aren't restricted, Gordon should take advantage of T.J. Warren's absence and work on rookie Josh Jackson and Dragan Bender. With a floor of around 30 YFP, I think he could well provide enough upside to exceed that Saturday.
Kyle Kuzma, LAL at MEM ($26): Kuzma has tried to gain immunity from the rookie wall with varying levels of success, but he sets up well against a faltering Memphis team that's actually favored in this matchup. While defying a Vegas line can come back to bite you, I don't think the Grizzlies can handle the one-two punch of Kuzma and Julius Randle ($35) inside.
Other forwards to consider: Blake Griffin, DET vs. CHI ($38), Jeremy Lamb, CHA at DAL ($21).
Forward to Avoid:
E'Twaun Moore, NO at HOU ($11): While I think the Pelicans backcourt will have some success, Houston's defense is brutal against wing players, and although Moore often acts like a guard-forward hybrid in the Pelicans' offensive scheme, you can find other ways to go at a similar price on this slate.
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CENTER
Dwight Howard, CHA at DAL ($34): Howard got an involuntary day of rest for picking up his 16th technical foul, which results in an automatic one-day suspension. As a result, Howard likely will be raring to go and build on his masterful 32-point, 30-rebound performance against the Nets earlier this week.
Brook Lopez, LAL at MEM ($21): One look at Lopez's recent stat lines vaults him into fantasy relevancy. While most DFS players gravitate to the more popular names on the Lakers, Lopez is consistently under-owned and really shouldn't be for this price. Although Memphis has some defensive power inside, Lopez should provide decent production.
Other centers to consider: Andre Drummond, DET vs. CHI ($37), Nikola Vucevic, ORL vs. PHO ($28).
Center to Avoid:
Alex Len, PHO at ORL ($13): Aside from a tough matchup against Vucevic, I think the Suns liked what they saw out of Marquese Chriss last night when they opted for a smaller lineup. Even though Len will probably start, Chriss could be in line for more minutes off the bench, which could cut into Len's potential output.
