This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
As we look to another slate of Game Two matchups in the first round, it's important that we take a good look at how these six teams have been utilizing their players on a per-minute basis. While there are some obvious spots to take advantage of, we'll need to analyze how much time other role players are receiving so we can balance our lineups for maximum profitability. Below we'll look at how the minutes stacked up in Game 1 for every team:
CLEVELAND
James: 45
Love: 34
Nance: 29
J.R. Smith: 28
Green: 26
Clarkson: 20
Hood: 20
Hill: 18
Korver: 3
Calderon: 3
It goes without saying that the Cavs had problems on both sides of the ball in Game 1, but they were especially ineffective on offense. Tyronn Lue will obviously need to make more adjustments against the Pacers, and I think the biggest deviation will occur in their guard rotation. Hill, Hood and Clarkson will need to get more involved and I think those will be key spots to target on Wednesday.
INDIANA
Bogdanovic: 38
Oladipo: 36
Turner: 33
Young: 31
Collison: 30
Joseph: 20
Sabonis: 18
Stephenson: 17
Booker: 11
I think the biggest takeaways here are Bogdanovic and Cory Joesph. The fact that Collison is only saw thirty minutes gives Joseph a leg up as a value pick on the slate, while Bogdanovic's 38 minutes stand out even more. Though Oladipo was the obvious star in the first game, Bogdanovic's 15/5 line with three steals is an excellent candidate for our lineups. I expect this usage to be fairly static – if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
HOUSTON
Harden: 40
Capela: 34
Paul: 33
Ariza: 32
Tucker: 30
Gordon: 29
Green: 19
Nene: 11
Johnson: 6
Obviously, Houston needs to do some tinkering on the defensive end to match the T-Wolves, and I think a major factor was Capela's workload. Granted, he had a great game but I think Nene needs to see more time under the basket to spell the big man, preferably in the second and third quarter so that Capela can be fresh for the fourth. Foul trouble became a factor for Nene in the last game, so I think he should see more time tonight. They also need to get more out of P.J. Tucker, as he did absolutely nothing with his 30 minutes.
MINNESOTA
Towns: 40
Butler: 36
Wiggins: 32
Gibson: 31
Teague: 28
Crawford: 26
Rose: 23
Dieng: 7
Jones: 7
Bjelica: 5
Obviously, Crawford and Rose stick out as interesting variables for the T-Wolves, as they saw enough time on the floor to compromise Jeff Teague's minutes somewhat. While I wouldn't exactly fade Minnesota tonight (Towns and Butler remain good plays), both Rose and Crawford emerge as interesting value targets and might be the only spot I go to on this end.
OKLAHOMA CITY
Westbrook: 37
George: 37
Anthony: 37
Adams: 36
Brewer: 33
Abrines: 21
J Grant: 14
Felton: 11
Patterson: 7
Ferguson: 2
This is about as no-nonsense as you'll get for a box score. The big three saw equal minutes in Game 1, and while you'll pay through the nose for Westbrook tonight, George and Anthony are interesting spots.
UTAH
Gobert: 35
Mitchell: 34
Rubio: 31
Ingles: 31
Favors: 30
Crowder: 27
O'Neale: 20
Exum: 18
Burks: 2
Jerebko: 3
Udoh: 2
The big question for Utah is the status of Donovan Mitchell. If he ends up sitting, Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and Alec Burks all get a bump, with Burks being the most interesting pick as he scored 10 points in two minutes of work – at first, I thought it was a typo, but I double-checked and it's accurate. If you're looking for value, watch for Mitchell's status.
So, for big spend-up plays, James, Harden and Westbrook are no-brainers and the winner there is a toss-up, but you have to give LeBron the edge in game they need to win. I think a tournament winner can be found without any of the top three, but I think exploiting a Mitchell absence would be included in that winning ticket. I also won't include Oladipo ($9,000) or Towns ($8,900) in my highlighted predictions below, as they are key players in a lineup where you elect to fade the elites and are superb options that don't need to be elaborated upon.
I think the information above is invaluable, provided it didn't bore you to tears. I think it does promote some independent thought before I give you my highlighted picks below. We'll select three players at each spot, and at least one of those players will be a low-cost, budget selection.
GUARDS
Jimmy Butler, MIN at HOU ($8,000): It's increasingly more apparent that the offense is leaning more towards a Butler-heavy game flow as opposed to Jeff Teague, who will likely show up with adequate stat lines but won't have the explosive potential Butler possesses. If Minnesota wins on Wednesday, we need to see lot of Butler and a good amount of Butler-to-Towns conversions.
Ricky Rubio ($6,300): I will happily go with Rubio regardless of how things shake down with Donovan Mitchell. 37.8 DKFP in Game One with a potential uptick in Mitchell's absence makes Rubio one of the best chalk plays you can draw up in your backcourt.
Cory Joseph, IND at CLE ($3,700): There are more solid value plays I could highlight, but you can guess who I decided between in the additional list I provided below. I think Collison's reduced minutes in Game One is a sign that Joseph is a trusted commodity in the second unit and the Pacers are confident in an extended stay on the floor if things continue to go the Pacers' way. There's little doubt that the Cavs have already drawn up a way to combat Oladipo, and Joseph could be a great sneaky play as they attempt to implement that strategy.
Donovan Mitchell WATCH
Dante Exum ($3,400)
Alec Burks ($2,700)
If he's out, look to these two for significant bumps, and who can resist a rare sub-3K player on DraftKings?
Other guards to consider: J.R. Smith, CLE vs. IND ($4,000), Jamal Crawford, MIN at HOU ($3,800)
FORWARDS
Paul George, OKC vs. UTA ($8,300): The significant price difference between George and Westbrook will likely result in a negligible downgrade in production as the Jazz defensive scheme fit right into George's wheelhouse on Sunday. The extra 2K you save by going this way will come in handy without much of a sacrifice.
Andrew Wiggins, MIN at HOU ($5,600): With Taj Gibson battling a sore neck, Towns will need some additional help inside and with an absence of viable options I think Wiggins will lend a hand in that effort. I think opting for extended time from Gorgui Dieng and Al Jefferson is just too risky as a value play, and the game script for the T-Wolves hasn't featured their meager bench for most of the season.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, IND at CLE ($5,100): As I illustrated above, Bogdanovic has emerged as a go-to guy for the Pacers. He's a great candidate for low ownership because unless you're a die-hard NBA watcher, the general public hasn't seen much of Indiana, and even less of Bogdanovic. Certainly, the Pacers' Game 1 win has made everyone take notice. He wasn't particularly great with his shot on Sunday, but if he heats up, watch out.
Other forwards to consider:Carmelo Anthony, OKC vs. UTA ($5,400), Jae Crowder, UTA at OKC ($4,400)
CENTERS
Kevin Love, CLE vs. IND ($7,700): Despite the embarrassing loss, Love did a fairly good job neutralizing Myles Turner, and while it's the Cavs' backcourt that desperately need to step up on Wednesday, Love needs to keep things going inside to maintain control in this game. Love's energy was low headed into the playoffs but he rose to the occasion on Sunday and looked much sharper. I think the 1.2K price differential for Towns is significant, however. You might get a lot more from Towns for more cash, but if you're filling a tournament bracket you should give Love more exposure.
Steven Adams, OKC vs. UTA ($5,800):Rudy Gobert and Adams have played to a virtual draw in almost every game they've played, and on a slate where there are precious few options at the five, I really feel like Adams and Gobert are a toss-up here. I can't be too enthusiastic about this pick, which only illustrates a desire to spend up, but if I had to go somewhere at this price point I'd go with Adams.
Nene, HOU vs. MIN ($3,400): I'm not fading Capela, but if you're looking for a decent flier on the tournament side of things, I think Nene will see more time on Wednesday. Foul trouble severely limited his usage, and Capela looked overworked in the final stanza of Game 1. I think in order for Houston to truly dominate, they need to give Capela a little more time to recoup as battling Karl-Anthony Towns is no easy task.
Keep an eye on Donovan Mitchell's status. There's no better place to do that than RotoWire.com!
