Postseason rotations are usually a lot tighter, but there's still value to be found on each team. As we did over the first two rounds, we'll take a deeper dive into some typically useful DFS metrics and see where there may be exploitable spots that can be attacked with modestly priced players. Additionally, with the first two rounds now in the books, we'll take some of the numbers generated by both players and teams during those games into account:
Western Conference
Houston (1) vs. Golden State (2)
Season series results: Houston 2, Golden State 1
Notable Warriors metric/area to exploit: Sixth-most points in the paint allowed on the season (47.4), including the most over the last three regular-season games (58.7); fifth-fastest pace of play (102.9 possessions per game)
Rockets value play to consider: P.J. Tucker, PF
Tucker came through in a tough frontcourt matchup against the Jazz during the semifinal round, averaging 11.8 points (on 57.9 percent shooting, including 52.0 percent from three-point range), 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.2 blocks across 32.8 minutes while averaging 7.6 shot attempts per contest. He naturally defers to the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela on offense, but as he's increasingly proven, he's highly capable of spacing the floor (5.0 three-point attempts per game during semifinal round) and is reliable in other categories, particularly rebounds. Moreover, Tucker put together a solid body of work versus the Warriors over three regular-season meetings, averaging 10.7 points (on 50.0 percent shooting), 4.7 rebounds and 1.0 steal across 26.0 minutes.
Notable Rockets metrics/areas to exploit: Third-most points in the paint allowed (48.0) on the season, including the most at home (48.8); highest shooting percentage (50.0) allowed to power forwards on the season.
Warriors value plays to consider:Kevon Looney, PF
Looney's contributions during the semifinal round understandably flew under the radar due to the performance of the Warriors' star players. However, he saw a steady and robust amount of playing time in the frontcourt and churned out solid production relative to his discounted price across the industry. The third-year big averaged 5.6 points (on 70.6 percent shooting), 5.8 rebounds and 1.0 assist across 22.6 minutes against the Pelicans, and he's logged over 20 minutes in nine of 10 postseason tilts. The Rockets' issues in the paint also dovetail well with Looney's scoring profile, as he logged 76.4 percent of his points during the regular season in that area of the floor, as well as 76.0 percent over the 10 playoff games he's played thus far.
Eastern Conference
Boston (2) vs. Cleveland (4)
Season series results: Cavaliers 2, Celtics 1
Notable Cavaliers metrics/areas to exploit: Tenth-highest offensive efficiency rating allowed to shooting guards on the season (21.2); fourth-most fantasy points allowed to shooting guards during regular season on Yahoo (42.3); eighth-most fantasy points allowed to shooting guards during regular season on FantasyDraft (43.3); sixth-most fantasy points allowed to point guards during regular season on DraftKings (62.8); fourth-most assists allowed to shooting guards during regular season (5.0); sixth-highest percentage (31.4) of scoring from three-pointers allowed.
Celtics value plays to consider:Marcus Smart, SG
Smart averaged a solid 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 block across 31.0 minutes in two regular-season games against the Cavs, and he validated his selection as a semifinal-round value play with averages of 13.0 points, 4.8 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 2.0 steals in five games versus the 76ers. He saw 33.2 minutes during the series despite shuffling between the first unit and bench, and his defensive presence figures to be counted on heavily again versus Cleveland. Smart also averaged 11.2 shot attempts against Philadelphia – including 5.8 from distance. That's a significant bump up in usage from the first round versus the Bucks, and although his shooting is always a weakness, Smart contributes more than enough across the rest of the stat sheet to pay off what remains a modest price across the industry.
Notable Celtics metric/area to exploit: 53.4 fantasy points allowed to two-guards on FantasyDraft, 45.5 fantasy points allowed to two-guards on FanDuel and 88.0 fantasy points allowed to two-guards on DraftKings over last 10 regular-season games.
Cavaliers value play(s) to consider:J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver, SG
J.J. Redick averaged 16.4 points on 43.5 percent shooting against the Celtics in the semifinal round, while Marco Belinelli compiled three straight double-digit scoring efforts to open the series before going cold in Game 4 and seeing his minutes curtailed in Game 5. The overriding theme is that Boston proved to be susceptible to the position, leaving the perpetually bargain-priced Smith and Korver as two tournament flyers to keep under consideration.
Smith has come alive at times in the postseason, particularly in the semifinal round, when he averaged 12.5 points on a blistering 63.0 percent success rate against the Raptors. He was just as impressive in the three regular-season meetings against the Celtics, averaging 11.7 points (on 70.0 percent shooting) over 23.7 minutes, with the shooting percentage serving as his best against any team.
Like his position mate, Korver has also been a key source of complementary scoring during the playoffs, averaging 10.5 points (on 46.9 percent shooting), 2.6 rebounds and 1.2 assists across 26.1 minutes. He picked it up during the semifinal round in particular, averaging 14.5 points on 58.3 percent shooting (including 56.0 percent from three-point range) in four games versus Toronto.
