This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
Sharps and Squares
I made two square picks this past week, and though I thought they were correct initially, by kickoff, I was almost sure I'd be on the losing end. The first was taking the Buccaneers as two-point favorites in San Francisco. I've been setting the point spreads for Beating the Book by coming up with my own lines and comparing them to the actual ones, and I had it Bucs minus four. When I saw the line was only two (a huge difference given it crossed the key number of three), it was a no brainer. But the public knows the 49ers are terrible, and even so, the line moved all the way to Bucs *plus* two by kickoff. It didn't help that the Niners got out to a quick 14-0 lead. But from the second quarter on, the Buccaneers annihilated them and covered the spread without any doubt.
The second was starting Tyrell Williams over Terrance West. When I posed the start/sit question on Twitter, 90 percent of the responses said West. When I looked at where other experts had them ranked, it wasn't even close. Still, I stuck with Williams who I thought was the better play, but I expected to be wrong after seeing so many people on the other side.
The moral here isn't that you'll always be right when going against the expert or sharp consensus - perhaps this week's success was just dumb luck. It's more that no one knows in a particular instance what's going to happen. The reason sharps are sharp is their overall approach wins often enough to be profitable (I assume), not because they have special insight into a particular outcome. If you knew nothing about a topic, you'd be better off looking for the people who do and copying them. But if you have the opportunity to study something thoroughly yourself, looking to adopt recommendations second-hand is precisely what you should not do. I'm convinced there would not even be squares if people simply trusted their own personal observations and didn't listen to other, often misguided (or in some cases dishonest) purveyors of advice.
Nosedive
I watched a few of the new Black Mirror episodes on Netflix this week, and the first one (no spoilers here), Nosedive, was about a woman trapped in a world where your actions are constantly rated by others, and in order to maintain a good rating, you have to express only positive emotions at virtually all times.
When I saw Jameis Winston get a 15-yard flag for calmly disputing a spot and reflected on how even four weeks after Odell Beckham knocked over a kicking net, Dan Fouts and Kevin Harlan were still talking about his "emotions" during the London game broadcast, it's almost like the NFL is creating a microcosm of Nosedive's dystopian world.
Players are expected to work out year-round, show up for "voluntary" minicamps in the offseason on non-guaranteed contracts for a job where serious injuries are virtually certain and some degree of permanent damage likely, be subject to the whims of their largely incompetent bosses, fend off ever more competition from younger, world-class athletes looking to take their jobs and do this in front of 80,000 people live and tens of millions more on TV, many of whom are happy to share their disgust on social media should they fail. Moreover, their activity is covered by a careerist media class, largely looking to ingratiate themselves with authoritarian team and league management by adopting management's reference frame for virtually every controversy.
So when a player through his own skill and effort succeeds in this soul-crushing environment and expresses himself in a way that harms nobody, of course the NFL wants to stifle that too by penalizing him on the field and taking away the money he's earned, while the servile media follows suit writing breathlesscolumns about it and debating whether he's a distraction to the team. I'm amazed these guys can even deal with it at this point, but they're all pot-committed career-wise and don't have much of a choice.
The solution is for the players one week to celebrate illegally on every play. The NFL would hate it, but it would be in the long-term best interest of their product once the moronic taunting/celebration rules were rendered unenforceable.
Tackling by the Hair
The NFL's quest for total control is such it would probably prefer all players had military-style crew cuts. While that wouldn't fly in today's society (though nor should testing for marijuana which is about to be legal in a lot of states this November), they've figured out a way to discourage long hair at least - by making it legal to use for tackling leverage. I actually saw the refs pick up a flag in the Saints-Chiefs game because they correctly determined Willie Snead was not horsecollared but brought down by his hair.
Now if I were a defender, I'd surely take advantage of this by grabbing any extruding locks with both hands and sitting my full body weight toward the turf. The player would either be tackled - or scalped, assuming he didn't break his neck. Of course, if I were an offensive player I would either cut my hair or put a ton of grease in it before the game. The problem is it's hard to get that much grease out simply by shampooing, meaning a player with long hair would have to spend the entire season with nasty grease in it to prevent tackling/scalping.
Week 7 Observations
• Ben McAdoo apparently learned nothing from the second half against the Ravens. Once again, he let the team get into a 10-0 hole early by running on 1st-and-10 for no gain and essentially squandering one down per series. Not including kneel-downs at the end of each half, McAdoo called 12 1st-and-10 runs and nine passes. The runs went for 1, 3, 0, 10, 1, 0, 1, 1, -2, 0, -2 and 2, respectively for an average of 1.25 YPC. (Keep in mind that includes a 10-yard run).
The 1st-and-10 passes went for 11, 9, 0, 7, 5, 14, 6, 0 and 0, respectively for an average of 5.78 YPA. While the passing wasn't good – in large part because the Giants so rarely attempted a play more than a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage – it was much better than running, especially given that Eli Manning was neither sacked nor intercepted.
• The Giants finished with 18 rushes for 38 yards (2.1 YPC). The Giants longest play from scrimmage all game was 25 yards.
• The Giants won the game only because the defense had three sacks and four picks, two of which were gifts, one of which it took to the house, and Jeff Fisher incredibly punted on 4th-and-short in plus territory three times, not including a 4th-and-3 punt from his own 40.
•Case Keenum's game-ending interception (an arm punt to an empty corner of the end zone where Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was standing by himself) can only be described as performance art.
•Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard saw mostly low-upside short throws on their equally-distributed targets. As in the New Orleans game, McAdoo never took advantage of an undermanned and injured secondary.
•Paul Perkins needs to supplant 31-year-old Rashard Jennings – Perkins is the only back showing any spark.
•Todd Gurley caught six passes for 35 yards – a good sign because the Rams can't get him going on the ground.
•Tavon Austin had 15 targets for 57 yards – the Rams still don't know how to use him as a receiver.
• Here's a rant on the Sirius XM show about how bad the game was.
• With Cody Kessler hurt, Kevin Hogan became the Browns' sixth QB in seven games (Terrelle Pryor, Josh McCown, Robert Griffin and Charlie Whitehurst.)
•Jeremy Hill's YPC had not been good dating back to the start of 2015, but 9-for-168 cleaned that up. Gio Bernard still saw the bulk of the carries, however.
•Tyler Eifert finally suited up, but saw only two targets. Brandon LaFell continues to be relevant. A.J. Green had a big day, thanks to a Hail Mary.
• The Redskins-Lions had an O/U of 50, and even with some late back-and-forth scoring, it hit only 37.
•Vernon Davis is doing exactly what Jordan Reed was doing before his concussion.
• Finally in Week 7, Marvin Jones and Golden Tate were the Nos. 1 and 1a the team had envisioned in the preseason. Of course, Jones only did his damage after Josh Norman left with a concussion.
•Matt Jones' fumbled twice, and Chris Thompson had a strong game as a runner and receiver. The problem for Thompson is not his size so much as his injury history – it's hard to see him emerging as a workhorse back.
• The Lions' running game is a wasteland, and Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington will complicate the picture more when they return.
• The Titans were the *sharp* side laying less than the full three at home against the name QB. But a run heavy team with an average QB (Marcus Mariota isn't good yet), its best receiver a TE and a punt-happy coach made for a shaky favorite. Even so, as usual DeMarco Murray got his – he's money in the bank even if one could have hoped for more in a home start vs. the Colts.
•Andrew Luck got 9.1 YPA, threw three TDs and no picks. He's having a great season given his limited supporting cast, and that he took only two sacks is a good sign. Donte Moncrief's return should also help.
•Jack Doyle saw 10 targets and caught nine. With Dwayne Allen out, he's a top-10 TE.
• As great as Spencer Ware's been, Andy Reid insists on using Charcandrick West in key spots. Consequently, the Chiefs had more trouble than necessary closing out the Saints, and Ware saw only 17 rushes and two targets. Of course, he led the team in rushing and receiving.
•Jamaal Charles had one carry for no yards after experiencing renewed swelling in his surgically repaired knee. The biggest obstacle to Ware is not Charles but Reid.
•Michael Thomas caught 10 of 13 targets for 130 yards. He's a staple in this offense and deserves to be.
•Mark Ingram finally got involved in the passing game with four catches for 20 yards and a score. That's crucial if he's to re-establish himself as an every-week fantasy starter.
•Drew Brees put up 367 and three on the road, well above average for him, but he did throw a pick-six.
• What a nightmare for LeSean McCoy and Mike Gillislee owners. This week could be more of the same.
•Jay Ajayi apparently is no fluke. He joins O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams as the only backs ever to rush for 200 yards in consecutive weeks. Put differently, neither Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Jim Brown nor Barry Sanders ever did that.
•Geno Smith can't buy a break. Last year he loses the job to Fitzpatrick because he got punched in the face. Now he loses it again after tearing his ACL in his first start of the year.
•Matt Forte finally got involved in the passing game with four catches for 54 yards and a score to go along with 30 carries.
• It's hard to take anything away from the Eagles-Vikings game. I suppose it was nice Dorial Green-Beckham finally got into the end zone, but no one had more than 39 yards receiving for the Eagles in the contest.
• After a couple weeks of Amari Cooper leading the Raiders, it was back to Michael Crabtree. I'd still prefer the more explosive Cooper, but Crabtree will get his looks.
• The Jaguars offense is broken, particularly the Blake Bortles-Allen Robinson connection that was so reliable last year. If you have Robinson you have no choice but to keep using him. If you don't have him, you could try to offer Crabtree or someone for him, but I doubt the Robinson owner will bite.
•Marqise Lee is quietly having a decent year now that he's finally healthy.
• Everyone seems to know Melvin Gordon is terrible, but he keeps trolling us with TDs.
• If Tevin Coleman's hamstring injury is serious, Devonta Freeman is a top-five back. His numbers weren't great Sunday, but he's a horse, and he's in the right offense.
•Julio Jones simply doesn't score TDs at a rate commensurate with his production. The same was true of fellow future Hall of Famer Andre Johnson. The common denominator? Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator. While Shanahan's offenses have been successful, they're built around red-zone running, and it's the backs like Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Steve Slaton and Arian Foster who get most of the scores.
•Hunter Henry makes for a good buy-low target after a game where Antonio Gates saw 10 targets and Henry only three, assuming he gets through the concussion protocol.
• Joey "The Boss" Bosa is already the best pass rusher in the NFL.
•Landry Jones was terrible. I needed the Steelers to score on their final two-minute drive to cover the spread, and Jones was throwing four-yard passes in the middle of the field and then taking 25 seconds to snap the next play. It was as if he were on tranquilizers.
•Le'Veon Bell will produce no matter what. If Ben Roethlisberger returns after the bye, he might also score touchdowns.
•LeGarrette Blount is underrated, especially in an offense with elite blocking tight ends Martellus Bennett and Rob Gronkowski, giving the team essentially seven offensive linemen.
• Mike Tomlin's decision to kick a 54-yard field goal down 11 with five and a half minutes left on 4th-and-2 at Heinz Field (one of the league's toughest venues in which to kick) with a mediocre kicker was mind-bogglingly stupid. I get taking the three first because you need two scores, but you do that on 4th-and-10 and from a makable distance, not 4th-and-2 from a mile away.
•Jameis Winston looked crisp and accurate, throwing well on the move and making good decisions. Of course, he was playing against the 49ers. Mike Evans is a top-five WR.
• The Bucs are stuck with Roberto Aguayo after using a second-round pick on him, but his attempt from 50 yards was as if aimed toward an invisible set of uprights 20 feet away from the real ones.
• With Navarro Bowman out, the 49ers have the NFL's friendliest run defense. Jacquizz Rodgers went 26-for-154, but unfortunately Peyton Barber benefited from the garbage time with 12-for-84 including a 44-yard TD. You can never have a truly monster day as a back when they pull you out for the easy late carries against a defense that's packed it in.
•Antone Smith, NFL history's per-play king, had three touches for 47 yards. At 31, they still can't slow him down.
•Colin Kaepernick has a nice floor for QB-flex leagues in Chip Kelly's offense with all those rushing yards. The rest of the team is a wasteland.
•Brock Osweiler had more of a "gratitude" than "revenge" game. After all, the Broncos played him just enough to get him that $72 million contract from the Texans. In return, he passed for 131 yards on 41 attempts (3.2 YPA.)
•Devontae Booker is looking more like a 1a to C.J. Anderson than a backup. Both will produce when healthy, but it hurts Anderson's ceiling. Last week was the time to pick Booker up, when he showed signs, but before he popped.
•DeAndre Hopkins has had a disappointing year, but don't read much into a matchup with the toughest secondary in the league.
•Emmanuel Sanders is a poor man's Antonio Brown – he runs great routes, catches everything, gets consistent targets every week. Interestingly the two were teammates in Pittsburgh.
•Lamar Miller hurt his shoulder and split carries with Alfred Blue, but that Miller played in the second half is a good sign. Blue also lost a fumble, so I doubt Miller's workload is at risk – assuming his shoulder is okay.
• Read CB Chris Harris' scouting report on the players who are hardest to cover (h/t Scott Pianowski.) It's the most informative piece of its kind I've ever read.
