NFL Reactions: Injury Optimism Can Hurt

It's always tough making the decision to pick a player for a fantasy lineup one week after they had an unexpectedly monster performance. Was the big output a sign of things to come, the first game of a season-long breakout, or just a flash in the pan that won't be repeated? There is always so much advice about not chasing points from last week, but sometimes the success is too much to ignore.

Fantasy owners of Jay Ajayi certainly feel the way (now). After rushing 25 times for 204 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6 against the Steelers, Ajayi followed it up with 214 yards and a score on 28 carries during Sunday's win over the Bills. His back-to-back big performances put him in an exclusive group that includes two Hall of Famers and the second-leading rusher in Dolphins history:

Jay Ajayi is 4th player in the NFL history to rush for 200 yards in consecutive games, joining Ricky Williams, Earl Campbell & O.J. Simpson pic.twitter.com/QYW5TKJ2Fa

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 23, 2016

The injury optimism for Foster heading into the season reached comical levels, as fantasy owners continued to convince themselves that a running back who has played 16 games once in the last five years could come back from another major injury and be a productive player. He lasted little more than one game before suffering his first injury of the season, and instead of reclaiming the starting job when he returned last weekend, Foster got to watch Ajayi turn in one of the best two-game stretches by a running back in NFL history, while fantasy owners of the former Texan are now left with another bench player.

The expectation that a fantasy player will be able to reclaim his previous production after a long-term injury is a big problem for most fantasy owners. Yes, we've certainly seen instances of players returning from serious injuries to be successful (Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles returning from torn ACLs come to mind), but more often than not, the replacement is better than the returner. This works both in the short and long terms.

Speaking of Charles, he's now played in three games since returning from his second torn ACL, and it's quite clear that he is being outplayed by Spencer Ware, who took on the starting job this season before Charles came back. Charles has rushed 12 times for 40 yards and a touchdown in the last three games (his first was before the Chiefs' Week 5 bye), while Ware has 54 carries for 290 yards and a touchdown, as well as five catches on nine targets for 100 receiving yards and another score over that span. Coach Andy Reid said earlier this week that they've been rotating their running backs and would continue to do so Sunday, which is certainly an interesting way to describe a 45:12 touch split over the last two games. Either way, Reid has never been one to use a running back committee, and as long as Ware continues to run like he has been, there's little reason to think Charles will get enough meaningful touches to justify his preseason ADP of 22.14 (Ware's was 144.80).

And if you think injury optimism only affects season-long leagues, just ask the people who had LeSean McCoy in their DFS lineups Sunday against the Dolphins after he came in questionable because of a hamstring injury. In fact, there were reports Thursday that said McCoy wouldn't play at all, before he was ultimately considered a game-time decision. Well, McCoy felt good in the Miami sun during pre-game warmups, and the team decided to start him despite the obvious injury. Eight carries and 11 yards later, and McCoy was forced out of the game after aggravating the injury, which is already putting his availability for Week 8 against the Patriots in jeopardy.

Making matters worse, fantasy managers who rostered Mike Gillislee for correctly thinking McCoy shouldn't have played were burned as well, as the former rushed only five times for 20 yards and failed to get targeted in the passing game. Clearly the problem of injury optimism extends to NFL head coaches.

Continuing on the injury train, Browns quarterback Cody Kessler, who was starting in place of the injured Josh McCown (collarbone), who was starting in place of the injured Robert Griffin (shoulder), suffered a possible concussion in the second quarter, which forced fourth-stringer Kevin Hogan into Sunday's game against the Bengals. Hogan really struggled throwing the ball, completing 12 of 24 passes for 100 yards and throwing two interceptions, but he was quite effective with his legs, rushing seven times for 104 yards and a touchdown. Only five players had more rushing yards than Hogan on Sunday, which helped him finish in the top-10 in fantasy points for quarterbacks (standard scoring). With Kessler needing to pass through the league's concussion protocol before he's allowed to practice, and McCown no guarantee to return next week, Hogan could be under center in Week 8 against the Jets. Unfortunately for Hogan, the Jets boast one of the best run defenses in the league, so he'll have to use his arm more effectively to be a useful fantasy option.

On the subject of being more effective, Chargers running back Melvin Gordon showed us once again that you don't always have to be efficient in order to be effective. Gordon was the top-scoring running back Sunday despite rushing for only 68 yards on 22 carries (3.1 yards per carry) thanks to three touchdowns. In fairness, only two of his TDs were rushing, and he was very effective in the passing game, catching six of seven targets for 53 yards and a score. After going without a touchdown during his rookie season, Gordon has found the end zone 10 times this season, scoring in all but one game. Additionally, he hasn't averaged more than 4.3 YPC in any game, and he's averaged 3.5 or less four times. However, he's the only game in town for the Chargers, so while he may not be efficient, he's showing that quantity can overcome quality.

Gordon wasn't the only running back to be an effective fantasy play despite averaging fewer than 3.5 YPC, as Jets' running back Matt Forte rushed 30 times for 100 yards (3.3 YPC) for the second time this season (he also did it in Week 2 against the Bills). After scoring three times in his first 100-yard game, Forte rushed for one touchdown Sunday against the Ravens, but he also caught all four of his targets for 54 yards and another score, making him the third-highest scoring fantasy RB (again, standard scoring) behind Gordon and Ajayi. The Jets seemed to have forgotten what they had with Forte, one of the best pass-catching backs in NFL history, as they constantly pulled him on passing downs in favor of Bilal Powell. However, Powell hasn't been used nearly as much in recent weeks, which eventually allowed Forte to become fifth player in NFL history with 8,000 rushing yards, 4,000 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns. Maybe giving this guy the ball a little more could help the Jets win? Just a thought.

Quantity over quality didn't necessarily work out for wide receivers in Week 8, as there were six wideouts who caught at least 10 passes, but only two finished in the top 14 in fantasy points scored. In fact, six receivers who caught five or fewer passes ended up with more fantasy points, as we were reminded yet again that one touchdown catch is worth just as much as 60 receiving yards (in many formats). That said, the player with the most fantasy points was the one with the most receptions (and he tied for the most touchdowns). Of course it was Davante Adams, who caught 13 of his 16 targets for 132 yards and two touchdowns after catching more than three passes once in his first five games. The Packers' offense has produced a number of solid fantasy performances this season, but unfortunately it seems to be one or two different ones each week.