This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REDSKINS | Giants | 15.8% | 355 | 78.02% | 3.47 |
| STEELERS | Browns | 15.0% | 260 | 72.22% | 4.17 |
| COLTS | Jaguars | 14.8% | 205 | 67.21% | 4.85 |
| BUCCANEERS | Panthers | 11.9% | 260 | 72.22% | 3.31 |
| Seahawks | 49ERS | 11.3% | 425 | 80.95% | 2.15 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 8.7% | 220 | 68.75% | 2.72 |
| FALCONS | Saints | 6.2% | 275 | 73.33% | 1.65 |
| Cardinals | RAMS | 4.9% | 260 | 72.22% | 1.36 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 4.8% | 230 | 69.70% | 1.45 |
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 1.3% | 390 | 79.59% | 0.27 |
| Bills | JETS | 1.0% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.36 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 0.8% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.37 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 0.6% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.20 |
| Packers | LIONS | 0.6% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.22 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There's a lot of guessing as to motivations and effort-levels this week, and you should wait until as late as possible - probably up to kickoff - to see which starters are being held out of games by their coaches.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
They haven't looked like a contender of late, but with a possible first-round bye at stake and an easy opponent, they should handle things - even on the road. I give the Seahawks an 80 percent chance to win this game.
2. New England Patriots
The Patriots are playing for home-field
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REDSKINS | Giants | 15.8% | 355 | 78.02% | 3.47 |
| STEELERS | Browns | 15.0% | 260 | 72.22% | 4.17 |
| COLTS | Jaguars | 14.8% | 205 | 67.21% | 4.85 |
| BUCCANEERS | Panthers | 11.9% | 260 | 72.22% | 3.31 |
| Seahawks | 49ERS | 11.3% | 425 | 80.95% | 2.15 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 8.7% | 220 | 68.75% | 2.72 |
| FALCONS | Saints | 6.2% | 275 | 73.33% | 1.65 |
| Cardinals | RAMS | 4.9% | 260 | 72.22% | 1.36 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 4.8% | 230 | 69.70% | 1.45 |
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 1.3% | 390 | 79.59% | 0.27 |
| Bills | JETS | 1.0% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.36 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 0.8% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.37 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 0.6% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.20 |
| Packers | LIONS | 0.6% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.22 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There's a lot of guessing as to motivations and effort-levels this week, and you should wait until as late as possible - probably up to kickoff - to see which starters are being held out of games by their coaches.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
They haven't looked like a contender of late, but with a possible first-round bye at stake and an easy opponent, they should handle things - even on the road. I give the Seahawks an 80 percent chance to win this game.
2. New England Patriots
The Patriots are playing for home-field advantage, while the Dolphins have the No. 6 seed locked up. But I wouldn't be surprised if Adam Gase wanted to test his squad against the best. I give the Patriots a 78 percent chance to win this game.
3. Washington Redskins
The Redskins are playing for a playoff berth, while the Giants have already clinched. Still, I could see Ben McAdoo leaving his starters in longer than he probably should. I give the Redskins a 78 percent chance to win this game.
4. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are playing for a first-round bye, but the Saints should show up and move the ball against them. Still, Atlanta has the best offense in the league this year and should have no problem against New Orleans' defense. I give the Falcons a 73 percent chance to win this game.
5. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts blew it in Oakland last week, but I expect them to finish strong against a weak Jaguars team off their first win in a long time. I give the Colts a 70 percent chance to win this game.
6. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have played better of late, but this is a letdown spot against a doormat on the road with little for which to play. I give the Cardinals a 69 percent chance to win this game.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
I think the Eagles can handle what's likely to be the Cowboys backups, but it's possible Tony Romo gets some work and performs well. I give the Eagles a 68 percent chance to win this game.
8. Kansas City Chiefs
I think the Chargers will show up off the embarrassing loss to the Browns, but the Chiefs are playing for a first-round bye. I give them a 67 percent chance to win this game.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers look checked out one week, competitive the next. The Bucs have been the better team this year, and they're at home. I give them a 65 percent chance to win this game.
10. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are in free-fall, but this is a good home matchup for them to salvage what's left of their dignity. I give them a 64 percent chance to win this game
Notable Omissions:
Pittsburgh Steelers - The Browns are terrible, but the Steelers, who have nothing for which to play, are likely resting their starters.
Buffalo Bills - EJ Manuel is their starter in a road game.
Green Bay Packers - The Packers are a good team on a roll, but a road game against a division rival with the playoffs on the line is too risky.
