NFL Barometer: Audition Extended

RISING

Terrance West, RB, BAL

If Kenneth Dixon's four-game suspension for violating the league's PED policy wasn't enough to get West on your radar, surely Dixon's season-ending meniscus tear did the trick. Danny Woodhead will of course have his prolific pass-catching role set aside in the Baltimore backfield, but West should be the heavy favorite for the running back workload otherwise.

While there are plenty of reasons to question West's talent level and general upside – the Ravens ranked fifth-to-last in rushing yardage per game last year, and West himself has a career line of just 1,678 yards (3.9 YPC) and nine touchdowns on 426 carries – the role opportunity here dictates a useful floor at the very least, and West should prove a useful flex option so long as his ADP doesn't skyrocket.

In recent MyFantasyLeague non-PPR drafts, West is going about the 11th round (137.93), which is behind names like Frank Gore, Kareem Hunt, C.J. Prosise, Theo Riddick, Jonathan Stewart, and Rob Kelley. I would doubtlessly take West over all of them after he finished last year with 1,010 yards and six touchdowns from scrimmage on just 443 snaps. I doubt he approaches 600 snaps, but in a high-tempo Baltimore offense his floor should be around 500 snaps.

Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF

Watkins' foot issues will remain a major worry for the indefinite future, but at least the recent news around his status has been consistently good leading up to training camp. Despite what will be a limited training camp workload, Watkins is expected to be at nearly full health at the start of camp.

A lot was made of the fact that the Bills declined the fifth-year option on Watkins' contract this spring, but this is still an elite talent who just turned 24 – if the Bills declined the option on the basis of doubting Watkins' skill, it was a horrendous mistake. His 276 career targets yielded 2,459 yards and 17 touchdowns, which is good for a YPT of 8.9 in an offense that averaged just 6.6 YPA over those seasons.

Going back to his Clemson days, where he outproduced older star talents like DeAndre Hopkings and Martavis Bryant, Watkins' age-adjusted production profile clearly implies star talent. If he stays healthy, it will probably shine through.

Travis Kelce, TE, KC

Kelce's availability for the start of training camp was originally in some question following a spring shoulder surgery, but he was on the field when camp kicked off Tuesday, putting him safely on track for a full-speed start to the season in Week 1. With Jeremy Maclin gone and the Chiefs otherwise relying on the diminutive Tyreek Hill as a leading receiving target, Kelce could be both the top downfield receiving threat and red-zone target for the Chiefs this year. His ADP carries a high price tag, but Kelce's upside is uniquely strong due to how little competition for targets he has.

Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN

Latavius Murray opened camp on the PUP list due to an offseason ankle surgery, and while he's not expected to be out long, every day he sits he cedes ground to Cook, and likely for good.

A lot of veterans with lesser talent receive snaps and touches at the expense of a rookie teammate, but when that occurs it's usually because a coach never gave the younger player a chance to prove themselves. A veteran is given the starting role because they're 'more proven,' and the rookie never gets a chance to test the hypothesis.

But this is a case where the rookie is very much getting a chance to prove himself. He's been the recipient of first-team reps since OTAs, and the stage is still his at the start of training camp. I expect Murray to establish himself as a short-yardage specialist for Minnesota this year, but coach Mike Zimmer might have already seen too much of Cook's immense talent to resist leaning on Cook when the games start.

FALLING

John Ross, WR, CIN

Ross' offseason shoulder surgery still has him sidelined, and Bengals.com reported Ross is likely to miss "a couple of weeks" from this point. Ross wasn't expected to serve a high-volume role in the Cincinnati offense, but missing two weeks of training camp could still be somewhat problematic for his NFL transition.

So long as he does make his debut in about two weeks, though, Ross should be a fairly quick study in a role where he'll primarily be asked to push back the safeties for A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. He just might not have enough practice reps for the Bengals to install very many plays with the specific intent of getting Ross the ball.

Andrew Luck, QB, IND

Indianapolis Star writer Stephen Holder guessed Monday that Luck (shoulder) will be ready for Week 1, but will not appear during the preseason. A mere guess it might be, but it seems reasonable enough. While the Colts have been insistent that Luck will be ready for Week 1, the facts otherwise leave room to suspect he'll need delicate handling. Given the tight timing, it also might be fair to wonder whether Luck will be less than 100 percent healthy in Week 1.

Ever since the January surgery to repair a torn shoulder labrum, Luck's prognosis has proved elusive, if not somewhat worse than the norm for such an injury. Luck just started throwing this week, yet the initial guess was that he would throw three months after the procedure. This week clocks in at just about six months. The surgery generally takes about six months to fully recover from, yet Week 1 would mark roughly eight months.

With what might be a rusty start to the season paired with elevated injury probability behind a questionable offensive line, Luck seemingly carries a fair amount of risk despite his high upside.

Vance McDonald, TE, SF

CSN Bay Area beat writer Matt Maiocco said Tuesday, for at least the second time since the draft, that McDonald might not make the final San Francisco roster. I'm skeptical of this, but my own doubt doesn't matter as much as the actions of the San Francisco front office, which is clearly leaking information pointing toward this narrative, intentionally or not.

I say this as one of the loudest long-time fans of rookie fifth-round pick George Kittle, who's cited as the primary threat to McDonald. Even in the scenario where Kittle impresses – which I certainly expect him to – he's unlikely to be better as a rookie than the 27-year-old McDonald. McDonald turned 91 targets into 717 yards and seven touchdowns in his age-25 and 26 seasons, and he possesses borderline elite athleticism for a tight end at 6-foot-4, 267 pounds. Even if McDonald was a pick of the prior regime, what reason do John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have for cutting him when they're otherwise doing nothing with the cap space?

The main point I'm taking away from this episode is that the 49ers front office is a leaking boat right now, and Lynch doesn't know what he's doing yet. If no one trades for McDonald, I expect him to earn the starting role on the basis of merit, and if he does, he could yet be a nice bargain at the end of drafts in a Shanahan offense that funnels red-zone targets to the tight end.