This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | GIANTS | 55.50% | 462.5 | 82.22% | 9.87 |
| Jaguars | BROWNS | 21.60% | 330 | 76.74% | 5.02 |
| SAINTS | Redskins | 7.40% | 350 | 77.78% | 1.64 |
| STEELERS | Titans | 6.00% | 290 | 74.36% | 1.54 |
| Patriots*** | Raiders | 2.90% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.77 |
| CHARGERS | Bills | 2.20% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.75 |
| BRONCOS | Bengals | 1.10% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.48 |
| Lions | BEARS | 0.60% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.25 |
| DOLPHINS | Buccaneers | 0.60% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.28 |
| SEAHAWKS | Falcons | 0.30% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.13 |
| Eagles | COWBOYS | 0.30% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.11 |
| Cardinals | TEXANS | 0.20% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.10 |
| Ravens | PACKERS | 0.20% | 125 | 55.56% | 0.09 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in Mexico City
The Chiefs are the overwhelming choice with 55.5 percent of owners using them, though keep in mind this deep in the season the "polling" data is especially noisy, and you should try to get a sense of who the other survivors in your pools have available. Still, it's lopsided enough that I'll be fading them, opting for the Saints, Jaguars, Steelers and Patriots instead.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots looked sharp offensively in Denver last week, and they face a much weaker defense at a neutral site in Mexico City. While the travel
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | GIANTS | 55.50% | 462.5 | 82.22% | 9.87 |
| Jaguars | BROWNS | 21.60% | 330 | 76.74% | 5.02 |
| SAINTS | Redskins | 7.40% | 350 | 77.78% | 1.64 |
| STEELERS | Titans | 6.00% | 290 | 74.36% | 1.54 |
| Patriots*** | Raiders | 2.90% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.77 |
| CHARGERS | Bills | 2.20% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.75 |
| BRONCOS | Bengals | 1.10% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.48 |
| Lions | BEARS | 0.60% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.25 |
| DOLPHINS | Buccaneers | 0.60% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.28 |
| SEAHAWKS | Falcons | 0.30% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.13 |
| Eagles | COWBOYS | 0.30% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.11 |
| Cardinals | TEXANS | 0.20% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.10 |
| Ravens | PACKERS | 0.20% | 125 | 55.56% | 0.09 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in Mexico City
The Chiefs are the overwhelming choice with 55.5 percent of owners using them, though keep in mind this deep in the season the "polling" data is especially noisy, and you should try to get a sense of who the other survivors in your pools have available. Still, it's lopsided enough that I'll be fading them, opting for the Saints, Jaguars, Steelers and Patriots instead.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots looked sharp offensively in Denver last week, and they face a much weaker defense at a neutral site in Mexico City. While the travel and venue are a wild card, I'd expect the Patriots, with their Super Bowl experience, to be the more adaptable team. I give them an 80-percent chance to win this game.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints look like one of the league's best teams, and their running and defense formula is a low-volatility way to win games. The Redskins are by no means a doormat, but their lack of big-play weapons on the outside limits their upside. I give the Saints a 76-percent chance to win this game.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't love the Thursday night game, and Ben Roethlisberger is capable of a disaster performance. But the Steelers are at home, where Roethlisberger tends to play better, and they're stronger on both sides of the ball. I give them a 75-percent chance to win this game.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars should handle the winless Browns, but keep in mind Cleveland is exceptionally tough against the run, and the Jaguars are a weak passing team. Moreover, the Jaguars' elite pass defense could be wasted on a Browns team that mostly likes to use its backs. And this game is in Cleveland. Still the disparity in talent is wide here. I give the Jaguars a 74-percent chance to win this game.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs should crush a Giants team that's below par in every phase of the game. Moreover, coach Andy Reid has an excellent track record coming off bye weeks. But the Chiefs defense isn't good, they're on the road, and they're the overwhelmingly most used team. I give them an 81-percent chance to win this game.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Make sure Philip Rivers (concussion) is playing, but if so, the Chargers should handle a Bills team running out a backup quarterback and that struggles on the road. I give the Chargers a 70-percent chance to win this game.
7. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are missing Richard Sherman, but they get Earl Thomas back, and this isn't the Atlanta offense from last year. Moreover, Seattle is one of the toughest venues in which to play, especially in primetime night games. I give the Seahawks a 62-percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Philadelphia Eagles - I know the Cowboys are without Sean Lee and Ezekiel Elliott, but I'd avoid using the Eagles on the road in a huge prime time game against an above-average division rival.
Detroit Lions - The Bears have played well defensively for the most part, and the Lions aren't good enough to trust on the road.
